The NFL Playoffs are rolling and the Seattle Seahawks (12-5) are marching into the NFL Divisional Round to face the Green Bay Packers (13-3) on Sunday at 6:40 p.m. for a chance to play in the NFC Championship.
These teams are both led by future Hall of Fame quarterbacks with ample postseason experience. Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is 10-7 in the postseason and 3-3 in the Divisional Round since 2010, while Seattle’s Russell Wilson is 9-5 in the postseason since 2012, but is 3-4 in playoff road games.
Seattle has lost five straight road games in the Divisional Round, including a loss at Green Bay back in 2008. Seattle did defeat Green Bay, 28-22, at home for the 2015 NFC Championship and won a regular season meeting against the Packers, 27-24, last November.
Below, we’ll make our picks for moneyline, spread and over/under between the Seahawks and Packers. We’ll also look for the game’s best prop bet at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook. Actionable betting advice on each bet type will be provided as either a “pick” or a “lean”. Picks can be made at any point in the week based on the odds and lines at the time of publishing, matchup advantages or a perceived advantage over the sportsbooks. Leans are reserved in anticipation of the lines shifting toward a more desirable number as a result of public betting action.
While researching for your Seahawks at Packers picks, be sure to check out my Divisional Round Football Preview at TheLines. It breaks down the statistical and betting trends of both teams and highlights the key on-field matchups.
Seahawks at Packers Picks: Point Spread
The Seahawks may have been unable to run the ball against Philly’s third-ranked rush defense, but is much better positioned to control this road game since Green Bay ranked 23rd in DVOA rush defense during the regular season. Marshawn Lynch remains an excellent weapon in goal-line and short-yardage situations, while Travis Homer should make an impact against a Packers team that yielded 90 receptions to RBs this year.
Wilson owns a 107.2 passer rating with a 17:2 TD:INT ratio on the road this year. He’s taken a whopping 31 sacks in this road tilts, but Green Bay’s pass rush is manageable since it mostly comes from LBs Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith. The Packers defensive line posted the second-worst adjusted sack rate (5%) this season. Seattle’s defense is healthier and playing very well and Green Bay’s offense is too dependent on Davante Adams and Aaron Jones to rely on the Packers winning handily.
The Pick: Seahawks +4 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Seahawks at Packers picks: Moneyline
This game should be considered a toss up and the Packers are only getting points because they’re home and have a rest advantage. Seattle is 6-2-1 ATS on the road including a postseason win at Philly last week and the Seahawks are 17-12-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage since Wilson became the starter in 2012. The Packers were not a convincing powerhouse down the stretch and only covered in 5 of 8 home games this season. The Packers are not getting great odds at -196 on FanDuel Sportsbook, so why not take a chance on Seattle and the ultra-clutch Wilson.
The Pick: Seahawks +170 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Seahawks at Packers picks: Over/Under
Seattle’s defense has improved during the second half and their games went 4-2-1 in terms of going Under the projected total. Green Bay has gone Under the projected total in 7 of its last 8, indicating how Rodgers’ reputation exceeds his actual performance with lackluster weapons on this team.
That being said, the point total is low enough to take a chance on these elite QBs trading late scores to get Over 46 points. While none of the Wild Card games exceeding their projected point totals, that trend is bound to change eventually. Temperatures are expected to be in the high 20s with no precipitation in Green Bay this Sunday.
The Lean: OVER 46 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Seahawks at Packers Best Prop Bet
Despite scoring just 17 points at Philly last week, we should have faith in Seattle’s offense. The Seahawks are averaging 22.5 PPG on the road this year and Wilson has been excellent with a 107.2 passer rating. Of course Rodgers is rocking a 101.2 passer rating at home and should force this game to go uptempo by executing on his end. We like the Seahawks to cover their projected total of 20.5 points and would also consider parlaying Seahawks (+3.5) with Over (46.5) for great odds (+300) on FanDuel Sportsbook.