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Divisional Round Picks

The final Sunday Night Football game of the year takes place in Week 16 and sees the Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) roll into Soldier Field to battle the Chicago Bears (7-7). The Chiefs claimed their fourth straight AFC West title with a 23-3 rout of the rival Denver Broncos in Week 15. The Bears were eliminated from postseason contention in a 21-13 loss to the Green Bay Packers. Below, we break down the best bets and picks for the moneyline, spread and over/under between the Chiefs and Bears. We’ll shop the odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook for the best value, and also look for the game’s top prop bet. Betting advice will be provided as either a “pick” or a “lean”. Picks are bets to be made at any point through the week based on perceived advantages on the field and at the sportsbooks. Leans will be advised in anticipation of a shift in the betting lines toward more profitable odds.

The Chiefs can still secure a first-round bye in the AFC. They’ll need to win their remaining two games while the New England Patriots lose at least once, or the Baltimore Ravens lose twice. Should the Patriots win Saturday, and the Ravens win Sunday afternoon, the Chiefs’ chances of a bye drop to 15 percent before their game kicks off. For the Bears, there’s little incentive or motivation. QB Mitchell Trubisky, the No. 2 pick of the 2017 NFL Draft, will look to prove his worth head-to-head against reigning MVP and former No. 10 pick Patrick Mahomes for the first time.

While researching for your Chiefs at Bears picks, be sure to check out my Sunday Night Football Preview at TheLines. It breaks down the statistical and betting trends of both teams and highlights the key on-field matchups.

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Chiefs at Bears picks: Moneyline

The Chiefs cruise into Chicago on a four-game winning streak. The defense held the opposition below 20 points in each of those four games. The Bears’ once-stout defense has allowed at least 20 points in each of their last three games, while the offense scored 20 or more points in just two of the last five. Chicago has allowed 18.1 points per game for the year, but it has scored just 18.3 PPG. The Chiefs’ 28.1 PPG on offense is down more than a full touchdown from last year’s league-high 35.3 PPG.

The Bears are 4-3 at Soldier Field this year. The Chiefs are among the league’s best road teams with a 6-1 mark away from Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs are 7-1 straight up against six shared opponents. The Bears are 4-4. Kansas City outscores the opposition by 7.9 PPG while Chicago is just 0.2 PPG above its opponents.

The biggest positional advantage in the game goes to Mahomes, as he takes on the QB taken eight spots ahead of him in April 2017. Mahomes has thrown for 3,606 yards and 23 touchdowns with just four interceptions over 12 games played. Trubisky, in 13 games, has 2,774 passing yards with 17 TDs and 10 picks. The Chiefs put up 23 points on the road against the league’s No. 1 scoring defense of the Patriots two weeks ago. Mahomes passed for 283 yards and a touchdown with one pick. He’ll do just enough once again, while Trubisky falters on the other side of the ball.

The Pick: Chiefs -240 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Chiefs at Bears picks: Against the spread

The Chiefs are 9-5 against the spread overall and cover the line by 3.7 PPG. They’re 4-2 ATS on the road, 5-4 following a win and 1-2 in non-conference games. The Bears are 0-3 ATS against AFC opponents, 1-5 following a loss, 3-4 at home and a league-worst 4-10 ATS overall while falling 1.6 points below the cover line on average.

KC opened as a 4.5-point favorite but has since moved to 5.5 at FanDuel and an even at DraftKings. The Chiefs have won seven games by at least six points this year, including each of their last four on the active win streak. The Bears have lost five games by at least six points. Kansas City has closed as a favorite of at least 6 points six times. It is 4-2 ATS in those games. Either the 5.5- or 6-point spread would represent the most lopsided line of the year against the Bears.

Back the motivated team in the Chiefs as they look to earn a week off instead of resting starters in Week 17.

The Pick: Chiefs -6 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Chiefs at Bears picks: Over/Under

The projected total dropped from an opening line of 45 to 43.5 at FanDuel and 43 at DraftKings as of Wednesday night. The number would match last week’s as the lowest of the season for the Chiefs. With a final score of 23-3 in victory, they fell well short and are now just 7-7 against the Over/Under for the year while falling an average of two points per game below the line.

The Bears are 5-9 against the O/U for the season while playing four PPPG below the projections. Games at Soldier Field have gone 2-5 against the line and average five fewer points per game than the projection. The 43.5 would be the Bears’ highest projection of the season since Week 1’s line of 46.5 against the Packers.

Chicago’s defense still ranks third by points allowed on the season and Kansas City is tightening up ahead of what hopes to be a deep playoff run. Take the Under.

The Pick: UNDER 43 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Sunday Night Football best bet

Winning Margin (5-point Bands): Kansas City Chiefs 6 to 10 (+460 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Chiefs are already laying six points at DraftKings and the Bears have lost by more than 10 points just once this year (36-25 vs. New Orleans Saints). Chicago is a better offensive club than Denver, but not by much. A final score of Chiefs 20, Bears 13 would cash all of our bets.