Welcome to the Monday Night Football betting breakdown, where I’ll provide a betting overview of the upcoming MNF game utilizing moneyline, points spread, and projected total odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook. Additionally, I’ll hone in on at least one player or game prop each week that I feel has profit potential at one of those three sportsbooks.
All betting takes will be classified as either a “lean” or a “pick.” A lean is a wager that we have a determined degree of certainty. However, it’s one that still falls somewhere short of a high-confidence selection. A pick carries an additional degree of confidence based on a variety of factors. These include relevant injuries, the past track records for certain conditions and bet types, and team performances leading up to the game.
For more detailed information on this week’s matchup, including further game analysis, betting trends breakdown, betting tips specific to MNF, and a synopsis of the history of the line movement for the game, please see our Monday Night Football Betting Preview over at TheLines.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles, Monday, Dec. 9, 8:15 p.m. ET
Prior to the season, this would have likely been envisioned as a game where the Eagles had a chance to either wrap up the division or fine-tune themselves further for the postseason after already locking up a playoff berth. Instead, Philadelphia goes into the game under the duress of a must-win mandate. Carson Wentz and company are in a somewhat unusual situation. They’ll have no hope of securing a wild-card berth if they don’t win the NFC East outright, and they come in with a 5-7 record. Yet, thanks to the only marginally better 6-7 mark the division-leading Cowboys now own, the Eagles remain very much alive to take the crown if they run the table the rest of the way.
On the Giants‘ side of the equation, they, unlike their opponent, have mostly lived up to expectations this season. The bad news is those were pretty low to begin with. New York comes in with eight straight defeats in tow. But the combination of having a chance to play spoiler and getting a familiar face back at quarterback could offer them a late-season spark Monday night. Eli Manning is a virtual lock to start against Philadelphia with rookie Daniel Jones (ankle) in a walking boot. Then, both Golden Tate (concussion) and Evan Engram (foot) are on track to make their returns. That offers Manning the potential of a full arsenal of weapons.
Philadelphia will be looking to slow down the veteran quarterback with a defense that’s surrendering 241.7 passing yards per contest, but just 188.7 per home game. Despite that stellar latter number, there have to be some concerns after the Eagles seem to regress in the secondary last Sunday in a 37-31 road loss to the Dolphins. Philly allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw for 365 yards and three touchdowns. The Giants will hope to be able to replicate some of that success, because the going could certainly be rough on the ground. New York’s offensive line has struggled to create running room for Saquon Barkley all season. And, they’re even less likely to find success this week versus a Philadelphia front seven surrendering a miserly 81.8 rush yards per game at Lincoln Financial Field.
The Eagles’s offense is actually in a similar scenario. For all the team’s misery, New York’s run defense has actually been respectable. The G-Men are allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (91.2) on the road. Yet New York also checks in surrendering an NFL-high 312.8 passing yards per game when traveling. That robust number is facilitated by a mediocre pass rush that’s only produced 26 sacks, seventh fewest in the NFL. Nelson Agholor looks like he’s headed for a questionable designation due to his ongoing knee problems. However, Wentz still has plenty of pass-catching firepower in Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz and even highly versatile running back Miles Sanders, among others.
The Eagles opened as nine-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook late last week, a figure that’s bumped up by a half-point. Philadelphia is a nine-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday afternoon. .
The Giants are 4-8 (33.3 percent) against the spread this season, including 3-3 (50.0 percent) as an away team. New York is also 1-2 (33.3 percent) ATS in divisional matchups.
The Eagles are 4-8 (33.3 percent) against the spread this season, including 2-4 (33.3 percent) as a home team.
As noted above, I do think Philadelphia finds a way to get back in the win column in this spot. However, I’m leaning toward Manning and his healthy offensive weapons doing enough to keep this reasonably close.
The Lean: Giants +9.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
As of Friday afternoon, both sportsbooks have the projected total set at 45.5 points. In a week where no game projects above 49.5 points, this game is about average in terms of offensive expectancy.
The Over is 7-5 (58.3 percent) in the Giants’ games this season, including 5-1 (NFL-high 83.3 percent) in their away games.
Then, the Over is 6-6 in the Eagles’ games this season, including 2-4 (33.3 percent) in their home games.
As alluded to previously, I see Manning’s return as giving the Giants offense a chance at more cohesiveness and sustained drives. Naturally, the expected returns of Tate and Engram will certainly help in that regard. Then, Philly can exploit New York’s issues defending the pass on the road. As such, I see the Over hitting in this spot.
The Pick: Over 45.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Best Prop Bet
Giants +9.5 and Over 46.5 points: (+290 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
In accordance with my lean on a Giants cover and belief in the Over, I like this prop. The Giants have made a habit of helping the Over hit on the road. They’ve also done a decent job covering when traveling, while the Eagles have been poor versus the number. Additionally, five of Philadelphia’s six road games have finished with a total higher than 46.5.
ALSO CONSIDER: Player to Score and Team to Win– Carson Wentz (+550 at DraftKings Sportsbook)