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Nets Betting

The 2019-20 NBA season opened last month and we have a huge slate this Wednesday.

On every big slate this season, PlayPicks is providing our top bets against the spread and against point totals for all the NBA games.

Injuries can always play a factor into the point spreads listed by US sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook in the NBA. Keep an eye on the status of star players with any sort of nagging injury or “load management” concerns as well.

In this column, we will list three of our best bets against the spread with data to support our picks. Then, we will list the following games on the NBA slate in order of our confidence in analyzing the matchup.

Keep in mind that lines can often shift when players are announced out due to rest or injury.

NBA December 4 Best Bets

Brooklyn Nets (-1) at Atlanta Hawks

Confidence: 9.6/10

The Hawks just stopped a 10-game skid with a blowout victory over the hapless Warriors, and now they get respect from sportsbooks? Giving a solid Brooklyn team a virtual Pick ‘Em line is a bit rash considering how bad the Hawks have been recently. Atlanta is rocking the second-lowest defensive rating (118.5) over its past 10 games and is giving up 50 PPG in the paint during that span while badly missing PF John Collins (suspension). The Hawks are 24-27 ATS at home since the start of last season. Brooklyn, which has been off since battling Miami on Sunday, owns the second-best record ATS (16-7) when playing on 2 or more days of rest.

The Nets are doing just fine with Kyrie Irving (shoulder) on the shelf and Spencer Dinwiddie has been a big reason for that success. He’s a superior defender and part of the reason Brooklyn ranks 7th in DvP against opposing PGs. Shutting down Trae Young is obviously the key to stopping the Hawks, and Young averaged a modest 17.7 PPG on 35.9% FG shooting over three meetings with the Nets last year. Don’t sleep on Taurean Prince getting some revenge against his former team, or on Joe Harris lighting up a defense that yields the seventh-most 3PTM (12.8) per game.

Dallas Mavericks (-4.5) vs Minnesota Wolves

Confidence: 9.5/10

The Mavs are on a second half of a B2B set tonight but they only traveled from New Orleans and weren’t really pushed down the stretch by the Pelicans. With a 20-year-old phenom leading the charge, Dallas is 16-9 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage and boasts the third-best record overall (57-43-1) ATS since the start of last season. Luka Doncic averaged 27.3 PPG, 8.7 RPG, and 7 APG with a 117 offensive rating over three meetings against the Wolves last season and he’s been lethal at home with averages of 31.4 PPG, 10.6 RPG, and 9.4 APG on 48.5% FG shooting.

The Mavericks are fourth in RPG (47.7) and allow a below-average 48 PPG in the paint at home. If Kristaps Porzingis is active and available to help contain Karl-Anthony Towns, the Mavs could run away from a Wolves team that ranks fourth in pace and coughs up the ninth-most PPG (114.4) this season. Despite having KAT down low, the Wolves yield the fourth-most RPG (47.0), so Dallas appears to have an advantage both outside and inside.

Miami Heat (+5.5) at Boston Celtics

Confidence: 9.1/10

Miami won in overtime at Toronto last night and that may lead to heavy action on Boston. Since Gordon Hayward went down with a fractured hand, the Celtics are 6-4 with a modest 3.2 net rating. They’re actually posting the second-worst defensive rating (115.4) in home games during that span and could struggle to outscore a very strong defensive opponent tonight.

Miami ranks sixth in defensive rating and leads the NBA in opponent’s 3-point shooting (.312%) after holding the Raptors to 11-for-43 from downtown in last night’s 121-110 win. Boston has won four of its last five meetings with Miami at home, but those games have been decided by an average of 4.2 PPG. Miami is 21-14-1 ATS when listed as a road underdog since the start of last season and comes into this game with plenty of momentum after Jimmy Butler posted his first triple double in a Heat uniform.

NBA December 4 Picks Against The Spread

Milwaukee Bucks (-7) at Detroit Pistons

Confidence: 8.8/10

The Bucks have an absurd 26.0 net rating over their last four games and the Pistons could rest Blake Griffin and/or Derrick Rose on the second half of a B2B set.

Los Angeles Lakers (+2.5) at Utah Jazz

Confidence: 8.2/10

The Lakers are on a mission this year and proved their toughness by earning a rare road win in Denver. Now they’ll look to make another statement against Utah, which will be missing starting PG Mike Conley (hamstring).

Indiana Pacers (+1) at Oklahoma City Thunder

Confidence: 8/10

The Pacers are third in defensive rating over their last 10 games and the Thunder ranks 20th. OKC is 2-2 with a modest 1.9 net rating at home during that span.

Phoenix Suns (-1.5) at Orlando Magic

Confidence: 7.5/10

The shorthanded Magic managed to outscore the Wizards last night, but may have a tougher time handling a well-rested Suns team. 

Charlotte Hornets (-4.5) vs Golden State Warriors

Confidence: 7.5/10

The Warriors have been boom-bust this season and their offense has mostly gone bust since losing D’Angelo Russell (finger). 

Portland Blazers (-3) vs Sacramento Kings

Confidence: 7/10

While they were blown out by the Clippers last night, the Blazers are capable of turning things around against a far less dangerous Kings squad.

Memphis Grizzlies (+6) at Chicago Bulls

Confidence: 6/10

The shorthanded Magic managed to outscore the Wizards last night, but may have a tougher time handling a well-rested Suns team. 

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