Hero World Challenge Betting Preview: Sleepers, Values, And Our Pick To Win

Posted By Esten McLaren on December 1, 2019 - Last Updated on February 20, 2020

Eighteen of the best golfers in the world are in The Bahamas this week for the Hero World Challenge. Host Tiger Woods highlights the small field which also includes four of the last five champions. Be sure to adjust your betting strategy as you make your picks for the Hero World Challenge. The condensed field of elite golfers has suppressed the odds with Chez Reavie‘s +4400 being the highest number. Limit your bets this week and make larger wagers on those priced at the top of the board rather than purely seeking higher returns with those at the bottom.

The tournament precedes next week’s Presidents Cup and QBE Shootout and is the final standard stroke-play event until the Sentry Tournament of Champions kicks off the 2020 portion of the PGA Tour schedule on Jan. 2.

The course: Albany

Albany measures 7,302 yards and plays to a par of 72. The par 3s range from 180 to 216 yards. The shortest par 5 is 548 yards with a long of 603. Two of the eight par 4s are shorter than 400 yards with No. 14 coming in at just 298 yards; the longest is 492 yards. The course has hosted the last four runnings of the tournament. The winning scores have ranged from minus-18 to 25-under par.

Key stats to consider for the Hero World Challenge

Each of the previous four champions of Albany was ranked inside the top eight of the Official World Golf Ranking entering the week of the tournament. This year’s field includes five of the top eight golfers in the world, including defending champion Jon Rahm at No. 3. Jordan Spieth has the lowest world ranking among those in attendance at No. 44.

Rahm led last year’s field with 25 birdies made over the course of the tournament. Opportunities Gained is an important stat to look at this week. We’ll also look at Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and Strokes Gained: Putting. Recent form and course history also need to be considered when choosing between golfers with multiple career victories and the ability to raise a trophy any given week.

Hero World Challenge betting picks

Justin Rose +1400 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Rose enters the week ranked eighth in the world which matches Rahm’s ranking entering the week of last year’s tournament. His last win was at last year’s Farmers Insurance Open. The Englishman finished third at this event last year, and he tied for fifth in 2017. He leads the field in Opportunities Gained over everyone’s most recent 24 rounds, and he ranked 17th in SG: Putting among the entire tour last season. His odds are as high as bettors should be looking.

Webb Simpson +1300 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Simpson is the best putter in the field outside of Spieth (+2200) who doesn’t have the tee-to-green game to win this week. The five-time PGA Tour winner makes his debut at the event ranked 11th in the world after moving up from 21st at the end of 2018. He’s one of just three golfers in the field to participate in last week’s RSM Classic. He finished solo second while Matt Kuchar and Kevin Kisner both missed the cut. Simpson hasn’t won since the 2018 Players Championship, but he has three other runner-up finishes this calendar year.

Xander Schauffele +850 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Schauffele, ranked ninth in the world, is third by the odds behind Rahm and Justin Thomas (+650). He debuted here last year with a T-8, and he most recently finished as the runner-up to Rory McIlroy at the WGC-HSBC Champions in a larger and even more competitive field. He’s a four-time champ, including last year’s Tournament of Champions, and he’s worth a heavy wager as a standalone pick.

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Esten McLaren

Esten grew up on a golf course and made the switch from real-life trunk slammer to the daily fantasy realm as soon as the game was launched. He's been betting golf regularly for the better part of the last 10 years, most memorably winning big on Rory McIlroy's 2014 Open title, but a trip to Carnoustie for the 2018 Open and a walk around St. Andrews share the honor for best golf highlight. He has written about all major sports at FNTSY Sports Network, theScore, and SportsBookWire.

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