Welcome to the Monday Night Football betting breakdown, where I’ll provide a betting overview of the upcoming MNF game utilizing moneyline, points spread, and projected total odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook. Additionally, I’ll hone in on at least one player or game prop each week that I feel has profit potential at one of those three sportsbooks.
All betting takes will be classified as either a “lean” or a “pick.” A lean is a wager that we have a determined degree of certainty. However, it’s one that still falls somewhere short of a high-confidence selection. A pick carries an additional degree of confidence based on a variety of factors. These include relevant injuries, the past track records for certain conditions and bet types, and team performances leading up to the game.
For more detailed information on this week’s matchup, including further game analysis, betting trends breakdown, betting tips specific to MNF, and a synopsis of the history of the line movement for the game, please see our Monday Night Football Betting Preview over at TheLines.
Vikings at Seahawks, Monday, Dec. 2, 8:15 p.m. ET
This should naturally be one of the best games of the week, making it fitting that it boasts main event-type status as the last Week 13 matchup. It’s a late-season showdown the way the schedule maker undoubtedly intended — both teams sport impressive records, have playoff positioning at stake, have a chance to be at full health in key skill positions and match up well against the others’ weaknesses.
The Seahawks managed yet another road win last Sunday in Philadelphia, their sixth of the season against zero defeats. Seattle had the good fortune of drawing an Eagles squad that was missing both Alshon Jeffery (ankle) and Nelson Agholor (knee). That made the offense a lot easier/straightforward to defend. The Seahawks limited Philly to a modest 4.8 yards per play. Meanwhile, they were also able to go conservative on offense. Russell Wilson only had to put up 25 attempts and completed a season-low 52.0 percent of his throws. But, Rashaad Penny (129 yards) spearheaded a ground attack that compiled 174 rush yards overall at 6.7 yards per carry to help spearhead the win.
Against Minnesota, Seattle might be best served to deploy a different approach. The Vikings have allowed just 93 rushing yards per away game. In turn, they’ve sprung more leaks than in past seasons against the pass. Minnesota has yielded 251.7 passing yards per away contest. Seattle has a wideout corps that includes a more fully integrated Josh Gordon, who’ll be suiting up for his third contest with the team if he can overcome an ankle issue that caused him to practice in limited fashion Thursday.
The Vikings face a similar situation. Seattle has yielded just 100.4 rushing yards per home game. Naturally, that doesn’t mean Dalvin Cook will be marginalized in the gameplan. The star back has rushed for at least 71 yards in eight of 11 contests. While he could encounter tougher sledding on the ground, there’s more than one way to get Cook involved. The Seahawks have allowed a 58-473-1 line through the air to running backs. Meanwhile, Cook boasts career highs in receptions (45), receiving yards (455) and targets (54).
Another key component of the passing game is naturally Adam Thielen. The star receiver managed to get plenty of rest for his ailing hamstring during the Week 12 bye and has practiced on multiple occasions this week as of Friday afternoon. Minnesota is averaging 240.8 passing yards per road contest while Seattle is surrendering the third-most passing yards per game at home (285.4). A healthy Thielen would therefore go a long way toward allowing the Vikes to capitalize on their hosts’ biggest weakness.
Assuming Thielen goes the full game, I’m leaning toward the Vikings managing to pull off a narrow upset in this spot.
The Seahawks opened up as three-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook late last week, a figure that’s been shaved down by a half-point.
The Vikings are 6-5 (54.5 percent) against the spread this season, including 3-3 (50.0 percent) as an away team. Minnesota is also 5-3 (62.5 percent) ATS in conference matchups.
The Seahawks are 6-5 (54.5 percent) against the spread this season, including 1-4 (20.0 percent) as a home team. Seattle is also 4-3 (57.1 percent) ATS in conference matchups.
Minnesota’s rest advantage could loom big here, however, not to mention the extra prep time. The Seahawks are a tough out at home. However, as stated in the moneyline analysis, I’m leaning toward a Minnesota pulling the upset in this late-season matchup.
The Lean: Vikings +2.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
As of Friday afternoon, the 50.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook) and 50 (FanDuel Sportsbook) projected totals make this the contest with the second-highest tally behind the Raiders-Chiefs AFC West showdown.
The Over is 6-5 (54.5 percent) in the Vikings’ games this season, including 3-3 in their away games.
The Over is 6-5 (54.5 percent) in the Seahawks’ games this season, including 3-2 (60.0 percent) in their home games.
Seattle is averaging 26.8 points per home game. Meanwhile, Minnesota’ defense is much more generous on the road (21.2 points allowed per game) than at home (15.6 PPG allowed). As mentioned earlier, the Vikings have a chance to get Thielen back in action. Given that both squads should be at full power and Seattle’s aforementioned troubles against the pass, I’m firmly in the camp of the Over.
The Pick: Over 50.0 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Best Prop Bet
Away Team To Win by 1-6 Points: (+410 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
In accordance with my lean of a potential Vikings upset in this spot, I’m going with this prop at an excellent price. Seattle does have two home losses on its ledger this season, falling to the Saints by six and the Ravens by 14. What’s more, they edged the Bengals and Rams by just one point apiece at CenturyLink Field. Their home victory came versus the Buccaneers by a modest six points. Meanwhile, the Vikings are just 3-3 on the road. But, that trio of wins has come within their last away games, while the one loss was a narrow, last-minute three-point defeat to the Chiefs at Arrowhead.