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Luka Doncic

The 2019-20 NBA season opened last month and we have a huge slate this Friday.

On every big slate this season, PlayPicks is providing our top bets against the spread and against point totals for all the NBA games.

Injuries can always play a factor into the point spreads listed by US sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook in the NBA. Keep an eye on the status of star players with any sort of nagging injury or “load management” concerns as well.

In this column, we will list three of our best bets against the spread with data to support our picks. Then, we will list the following games on the NBA slate in order of our confidence in analyzing the matchup.

Keep in mind that lines can often shift when players are announced out due to rest or injury.

NBA November 29 Best Bets

Dallas Mavericks (-1.5) at Phoenix Suns

Confidence: 9.7/10

This spread seems off and it will likely move with Dallas becoming a bigger favorite once action starts flowing on the Mavs. The Suns have not been the same team since Ricky Rubio starting dealing with back spasms and Rubio wasn’t entirely effective in a 140-132 loss to Washington as he returned to action on Wednesday. The Mavericks are basically the Wizards on steroids with the best offensive rating (116) in the NBA this season and the fourth-best net rating (7.5) compared to Washington’s -1.2 rating this season. 

Phoenix has struggled with the third-worst defensive rating (117.9) over its last five contests and Dallas is 4-1 with a silly 125.6 offensive rating during that span. Luka Doncic finally cooled off in a loss to the Clippers on Tuesday, but it took an elbow stinger along with the stingy defense of PG and Kawhi to slow down the MVP candidate. Doncic personally owns a 127 offensive rating on the road and should thrive as a creator against a Suns team that forces the third-fewest turnovers per game (17.2) this year.

Los Angeles Clippers (-6) at San Antonio Spurs

Confidence: 9.6/10

Kawhi Leonard sat out Wednesday’s game and will almost certainly be ready to play big minutes in another revenge game against the Spurs. The Clippers are 11-2 with Leonard in the lineup this season and 3-3 with a pair of 2-point wins win he sits. They’re 4-0 with the fourth-best net rating (10.4) over their last four games now that Paul George has shaken off the rust. Leonard score a season-high 38 points on 15-for-32 FG shooting in a 103-97 win over the Spurs on Oct. 31 and now he has a talented sidekick to share the load.

Meanwhile, the Spurs are somehow 1-9 ATS at home after going 26-18 ATS at home last season. San Antonio ranks 29th in defensive rating and opponent’s 3-point shooting (.388%) while logging the fewest 3PTM per game (8.8) in today’s triple-happy NBA. They’ve dropped five straight home games by an average of 10.2 PPG and have lost 10 of their last 11 with the sole win coming at the lowly Knicks.

Toronto Raptors (-3.5) at Orlando Magic

Confidence: 9.3/10

The Raptors have already beaten the Magic by 9 and 16 points this season. While those games were in Toronto, Orlando had Nikola Vucevic available for the most meeting and he played 11 minutes before spraining his ankle in the second contest. With Vooch out, the Magic are 1-3 with the second-worst offensive rating (102.8) and seventh-worst net rating (-6.9) over their last four games. Toronto ranks third in net rating (13.9) and fourth in offensive rating (118.3) during that same span. 

Despite losing Kawhi Leonard in free agency and losing Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka to multi-week injuries, the Raptors are second in Simple Rating System and come into this game on an impressive five-game winning streak. The Raptors have been more vulnerable on the road, but are holding opponents to 30.3% 3-point shooting away from home and Orlando is depending on the 3-point shot with Vucevic out. Toronto is 2-1 ATS as a road favorite and Orlando is 0-1-1 as a home underdog this season.

NBA November 29 Picks Against The Spread

Milwaukee Bucks (-10.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers

Confidence: 8.7/10

The Cavs have the worst net rating (-13.3) in the NBA over their last four games and Milwaukee is fully capable of covering this number.

Washington Wizards (+11.5) at Los Angeles Lakers

Confidence: 8.5/10

The Lakers defense has been lights out at home, but the Wizards offense has traveled well and should allow Washington to cover a double-digit spread in a tough environment.

Boston Celtics (-3.5) at Brooklyn Nets

Confidence: 8.4/10

The Celtics break teams with their relentless effort and superior athleticism. They should ride the momentum of Wednesday’s comeback win in an afternoon rematch with Brooklyn.

Indiana Pacers (-10.5) vs Atlanta Hawks

Confidence: 8/10

Action is coming in on the Hawks after they covered in Milwaukee on Wednesday. But Atlanta’s defense has simply been atrocious and Indiana owns the second-best net rating (16.1) in the NBA over its last four games. 

Philadelphia 76ers (-7.5) at New York Knicks

Confidence: 7.5/10

Joel Embiid bounced back in a big way to lead the Sixers past the Kings on Wednesday and the Knicks are a much, much easier matchup in an arena that might not even root for the home team.

Portland Blazers (-7.5) vs Chicago Bulls

Confidence: 7.5/10

The Blazers appear to have turned the corner after a really rough start to the season and should handle an overmatched Bulls squad at home. 

Memphis Grizzlies (+7) vs Utah Jazz

Confidence: 7.2/10

The Jazz simply can’t be trusted on the road and certainly can’t be trusted to win big. We’ve seen the opposing team get more fired up for “return games” than the returner and Mike Conley has struggled badly with his new team. 

Miami Heat (-12) vs Golden State Warriors

Confidence: 7/10

Assuming Jimmy Butler is ready to return from his mysterious illness, the Heat should be ready to resume beating up on the bottom half of the NBA when they face the Warriors at home. 

Charlotte Hornets (+8) at Detroit Pistons

Confidence: 6.5/10

Home court advantage has not meant that much to the Pistons that they can be expected to win by 9-plus after losing in Charlotte on Wednesday. 

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