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Trae Young

The 2019-20 NBA season opened last month and we have an exciting game slate this Monday.

On every big slate this season, PlayPicks is providing our top bets against the spread and against point totals for all the NBA games.

Injuries can always play a factor into the point spreads listed by US sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook in the NBA. Keep an eye on the status of star players with any sort of nagging injury or “load management” concerns as well.

In this column, we will list three of our best bets against the spread with data to support our picks. Then, we will list the following games on the NBA slate in order of our confidence in analyzing the matchup.

Keep in mind that lines can often shift when players are announced out due to rest or injury.

NBA November 25 Best Bets

Philadelphia 76ers (-1) at Toronto Raptors

Confidence: 9.5/10

It appears that the Sixers have figured things out while winning four straight by an average of 15.5 PPG. They might have the personnel necessary to contain Toronto’s best skill players (namely, Pascal Siakam) and hand the Raptors their first home loss this year. This is a key game for Philly for a number of reasons, including an opportunity to exact some revenge after a heartbreaking loss to Toronto in Game 7 of the ECF semifinals last season.

Toronto has kept rolling despite losing Kyle Lowry (thumb) and Serge Ibaka (ankle) for a few weeks. The Raptors have turned to a group of young athletes to keep them on schedule on both ends of the floor, but they likely won’t be able to exert their will in the paint against a sizable Sixers team that is allowing the third-fewest PPG in the paint (38) over their last three outings. While Philly is 4-5 on the road this season, that comes with a modest -0.6 PPG differential. We’d expect another close game in Toronto tonight, with the Sixers superior (and healthier) starting lineup closing it out down the stretch.

Boston Celtics (-6.5) vs Sacramento Kings

Confidence: 9.3/10

The absence of Kemba Walker (head) has driven this spread down a bit, but the Celtics are still a deep team and capable of covering this number at home. Boston has one of the best home court advantages in the NBA and owns the second-best record (57-42-3) ATS at home since 2017. The Celtics are tied for the fifth-best net rating in the league this year and Sacramento ranks 23rd.

The Kings are regressing after an initial surge without De’Aaron Fox (ankle) in the lineup and have a -3.0 net rating over their last three games. Sacramento laid an egg in Brooklyn before edging the defenseless Wizards, but Boston is yielding just 102.7 points per 100 possessions (4th in the NBA) and is 5-0 with a +7.2 PPG differential at home this year. Walker’s absence may hurt the offense, but backup PG Brad Wanamaker is a superior defender. The Celtics are getting enough offensive production from Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to keep pace, and Brown was very vocal about how his team should’ve beaten the Kings in Sacramento last week. Look for the Celtics to come out sharp and motivated in a revenge effort. 

Minnesota Wolves (-3.5) at Atlanta Hawks

Confidence: 9.2/10

The Hawks have the worst defense in the NBA over the past two weeks and should be powerless to contain Karl-Anthony Towns with John Collins suspended. Alex Len will be absolute food for KAT, while Andrew Wiggins averages a solid 18.7 PPG on 48% FG shooting in his career against Atlanta. Wiggins has scored 21-plus points in 9 straight appearances and his return from a personal absence kept the Wolves competitive against superior WCF teams in the Jazz and Suns.

Atlanta ranks 28th in total rebounding and coughs up 12.4 3-pointers per game at home. Minnesota attempts the third-most triples while connecting on 12.4 per game. The Hawks have the fifth-worst record ATS (23-26) at home since the start of last season and have dropped 9 of their last 10 games. Their giving up a league-worst 130.3 PPG over their last six games. Minnesota is also allowing the fewest PPG in the paint (36.7) over its last three games, so keeping Trae Young out of the restricted area could be the key to a runaway victory.

NBA November 25 Picks Against The Spread

Detroit Pistons (-4.5) vs Orlando Magic

Confidence: 8.5/10

The Magic will continue to struggle with Nikola Vucevic (ankle) out, while the Pistons are ramping up with Blake Griffin getting healthier by the day. 

Brooklyn Nets (+1) at Cleveland Cavs

Confidence: 8.5/10

The Cavs have a league-worst -21.1 net rating over their last three games and the Nets are playing better team ball with Kyrie Irving (shoulder) on the shelf. 

Los Angeles Lakers (-5) at San Antonio Spurs

Confidence: 8.2/10

The Spurs have been dreadful on both sides of the ball and are far from their usual dominance at home. 

Utah Jazz (+7) at Milwaukee Bucks

Confidence: 7.8/10

This line has moved in Utah’s favor as the betting public falls in love with Milwaukee’s recent results. The Bucks fell, 103-100, at Utah a few weeks ago and we’d expect another close finish between championship contenders.

Indiana Pacers (-9.5) vs Memphis Grizzlies

Confidence: 7.5/10

When the Pacers are clicking defensively, they can easily run away with games. And the youth-laden Grizzlies haven’t shown much consistency on the road. 

Golden State Warriors (+6) vs Oklahoma City Thunder 

Confidence: 7.2/10

While the Warriors aren’t a good bet to win, the Thunder aren’t blowing many teams out and had a much closer finish with the G-League Dubs the last time these teams faced off. 

Portland Blazers (-1) at Chicago Bulls

Confidence: 7/10

With Damian Lillard back in action and C.J. McCollum finding his rhythm, the Blazers should pull out this road win. 

Miami Heat (-11) vs Charlotte Hornets

Confidence: 7/10

This number is uncomfortably high, but it’s been foolhardy to bet against the Heat at home this season. Miami is rocking close to a +20 PPG differential at American Airlines Arena.

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