The Green Bay Packers (8-2) visit the San Francisco 49ers (9-1) in a Week 12 showdown on Sunday Night Football. The game at Levi’s Stadium has major playoff implications as the No. 1 teams in the NFC North and West, respectively, vie for seeding, home-field advantage, and a playoff bye. Below, we’ll make our picks on the moneyline, spread and over/under between the Packers and 49ers while also looking at the best prop bet based on the matchup from either DraftKings Sportsbook or FanDuel Sportsbook. Sports betting advice will be provided on each bet type as either a “pick” or a “lean”. The former can be made at any point through the week based on the matchup and an apparent edge at the sportsbook vs. the public. Leans may require bettors to wait until the lines reach a more desirable and profitable number.
Across the country Sunday afternoon, the New Orleans Saints (8-2) will host the Carolina Panthers. The result is sure to draw the attention of many at Levi’s Stadium. The Seattle Seahawks (8-2) could move past the 49ers with a road win over the Philadelphia Eagles. With this game kicking off at 8:20 p.m. ET, both the Packers and 49ers will have a better idea of the importance of a win as they head into their sixth-to-last game of the 2019 season.
While researching for your Packers and 49ers picks, be sure to check out my Sunday Night Football Preview at TheLines. It breaks down the statistical and betting trends of both teams and highlights the key on-field matchups.
Packers at 49ers picks: Moneyline
The Packers come off a Week 11 bye which has allowed them to get as healthy as they’ve been all season. The 49ers beat the rival Arizona Cardinals 36-26 at home last week, but they continue battling injuries to TE George Kittle (knee), OT Joe Staley (finger), RB Matt Breida (ankle) and DL Dee Ford (hamstring). Rising rookie WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder) and veteran WR Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) were also sidelined at practice Wednesday.
The Niners are 4-1 at home with their only loss coming by a 27-24 count against the Seahawks just two weeks ago. The Packers are 3-1 on the road. Their lone loss as visitors was by a 15-point margin (26-11) against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 9. They rebounded with a 24-16 win at home vs. the Carolina Panthers before their bye. San Francisco ranks second in the NFL with 29.5 points per game on offense; it’s also second with 15.5 points allowed per game. Green Bay allows 20.5 points per game with 25.0 scored. The 49ers have the league’s second-best rushing attack with 149.0 team rushing yards per game.
The Packers rank second in the NFL with a turnover differential of plus-nine while the Niners are plus-five. San Francisco has forced six more turnovers on the season; however, they’ve committed 10 more of their own. This will be the difference in primetime as the Packers take full advantage of their rest. Take Green Bay for the outright win as road dogs.
The Pick: Packers +150 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Packers at 49ers picks: Against the spread
The 49ers are favored by an even field goal (-3) at both DraftKings and FanDuel. They’re 5-4-1 against the spread and cover by an average of 9.2 points per game. They’re just 0-2-1 ATS over their last three games, 3-3-1 against NFC opponents, and 2-2-1 as home favorites. The Packers are 7-3-0 overall (covering by an average of 1.6 PPG), 4-2-0 against NFC foes, and 2-0 as road dogs while covering the spread by an average of 12.0 PPG. Green Bay is 3-1 ATS across its last four games before the bye.
The Packers have closed as underdogs just twice this season with spreads of +3 (at Chicago Bears) and +3.5 (at Dallas Cowboys). They won each game outright on the road. QB Aaron Rodgers and Co. have upped their play against quality opponents, going 5-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. The Pack are still getting plus money on the spread at FanDuel and it’s our best play with added insurance in case they fall short of the outright victory.
The Pick: Packers +3 (+100 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Packers at 49ers picks: Over/Under
The projected total has crept up through the week and sat at 47.5 at both DraftKings and FanDuel as of Thursday. The Packers closed with higher projections in each of their last three games, and they went 1-2 against the number in those outings. The 49ers have had just three higher projections this season. They went 0-3 against those numbers (51, 48, 50) and are just 5-5 overall against the Over/Under, as are the Pack. San Francisco has, however, played to four consecutive Overs with totals greater than 50 combined points.
While the 49ers’ defensive numbers look great over the season as a whole, they have allowed at least 25 points in each of their last three games, including the last two at home. QB Jimmy Garoppolo has had two of his best games of the year over his last three outings. He threw for a season-high 424 yards in last week’s win. An absence of any of the injured skill players for the 49ers would be detrimental to our cause, but the rested Packers are well equipped to provide the bulk of the offense. Aim high with an offensive shootout on deck. Despite the upward line movement this week, both sides are still getting equal odds.
The Pick: OVER 47.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Sunday Night Football best bet
First Scoring Play: Away Team Touchdown (+235 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Take advantage of the Packers’ health advantage with the full fleet of their top offensive weapons available. As mentioned above, the Niners defense has been weakening of late, and injuries on their defensive line will allow Rodgers to air out deep balls to the likes of WR Davante Adams, WR Geronimo Allison, TE Jimmy Graham, and RB Aaron Jones.
Garoppolo is in his best form of the season and won’t be without his full pass-catching corps by any stretch, but more than double the return on the investment here is too great to turn down.