Welcome to the Monday Night Football betting breakdown, where I’ll provide a betting overview of the upcoming MNF game utilizing moneyline, points spread, and projected total odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook. Additionally, I’ll hone in on at least one player or game prop each week that I feel has profit potential at one of those three sportsbooks.
All betting takes will be classified as either a “lean” or a “pick.” A lean is a wager that we have a determined degree of certainty. However, it’s one that still falls somewhere short of a high-confidence selection. A pick carries an additional degree of confidence based on a variety of factors. These include relevant injuries, the past track records for certain conditions and bet types, and team performances leading up to the game.
For more detailed information on this week’s matchup, including further game analysis, betting trends breakdown, betting tips specific to MNF, and a synopsis of the history of the line movement for the game, please see our Monday Night Football Betting Preview over at TheLines.
Chiefs At Chargers, Monday, Nov. 18, 8:15 p.m. ET
Week 10 was yet another bump in the road in a rollercoaster season for both the Chargers and Chiefs. Each team suffered a narrow loss. Los Angeles fell by two to the Raiders on Thursday night in Week 10. Then, Kansas City had plenty of offensive success versus the Titans in their matchup with Patrick Mahomes back in the saddle. However, their defense gave up a whopping 188 yards on the ground to Derrick Henry and game-winning touchdown reception to Adam Humphries on their way to a 35-32 loss.
The Chiefs’ offense is back to hitting on all cylinders with Mahomes at the controls. However, the Chargers will present a stiff test. Led by star cornerback Casey Heyward, Los Angeles has overcome some early struggles to come into Week 11 surrendering a stingy 207.8 passing yards per game. That’s the fifth-lowest figure in the NFL. The Chargers have also complemented their seven picks with 24 sacks. Their ability to consistently pressure the quarterback has helped out the back end of the defense. The Bolts’ ability to often limit yards after the catch — evidenced by the fact they still rank in the top five against through the air despite allowing a 71.7 percent completion rate — should certainly come in handy against KC’s explosive group of pass catchers. The good news for Kansas City is they’ll draw a much more favorable matchup on the ground. Los Angeles surrenders 110.5 rushing yards per contest.
Los Angeles counters Kansas City’s collection of offensive weapons with their own impressive group. The Bolts’ Philip Rivers seemingly lives for potential shootouts such as Monday night’s shapes up to be. He also has one of the more collectively diverse group of options in the league at his disposal that are tailor-made for a game like this. The possession/mid-range abilities of Keenan Allen, downfield threat of Mike Williams, down-the-seam abilities of Hunter Henry and the elite versatility of the Melvin Gordon–Austin Ekeler 1-2 punch in the backfield can pose a threat to any defense.
There’s vulnerability to the Chiefs’ defense as well. Kansas City has been better against the pass, allowing 221.4 passing yards per game. But, Kansas City has also surrendered an aDOT of 8.6 yards and 16 passing touchdowns overall. Yet where the getting is often the best against the Chiefs is typically on the ground. KC is surrendering the second-most rushing yards per contest (148.1 per game). On that note, it’s worth noting Gordon looks to be himself again after taking a few games to round back into shape following his holdout. He has 80- and 108-yard tallies on the ground over the last two games while carrying 20 and 22 times, respectively.
The Chiefs opened up as 3.5-point favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook late last week. That number has now been bet up a half-point. Both teams are in urgent need of a win in a wide-open AFC West. And, both squads are essentially are at full health in key spots. Kansas City has enough firepower to pull away from any squad. That makes this spread a conquerable one.
The Chiefs are 5-5 (50.0 percent) against the spread this season. Kansas City is also 2-0 ATS in AFC West matchups.
The Chargers are 3-5-2 (37.5 percent) against the spread this season. Los Angeles is also 0-2 ATS in AFC West matchups.
This is going to be a tough assignment for the Chiefs’ vaunted offense, given Los Angeles’ solid secondary play lately. I see a close contest here. However, I lean toward the Chiefs doing just enough to win by five or more points.
The Lean: Chiefs -4 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
There’s no surprise in seeing this total firmly over 50 points, given the ammunition both squads are operating with on offense. While the Chiefs’ offense rightfully gets all the headlines, the Chargers are playing with a stacked deck themselves as detailed earlier.
The Over is 7-3 (70.0 percent) in the Chiefs’ games this season, including 0-2 in Kansas City’s division games. In turn, the Over is 3-7 (30.0 percent) in the Chargers’ games this season, including 1-1 in Los Angeles’ division games.
Los Angeles’ defense should serve as a fairly stiff test for the Chiefs, but KC can naturally transcend any matchup. Then, the Chargers should certainly have plenty of opportunities against a suspect Kansas City defense. I’m therefore in the camp of the Over.
The Pick: Over 52.0 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Best Prop Bet
Spread/Total Points Parlay: Chiefs -3.5 and Over 52.5 points (+270 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
In accordance with my belief the Chiefs will manage a cover and offense will rule the night, I like the idea of rolling the dice on this prop at this price. As mentioned earlier, each squad should be able to move down the field against the other, likely keeping each within striking distance in terms of the score. As such, I see enough of a possibility for this prop to hit.
ALSO CONSIDER: Any Time Touchdown Scorer: Hunter Henry (+180 at FanDuel Sportsbook)