Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum is the host site of Sunday Night Football in Week 11 where the Chicago Bears (4-5) will clash with the Los Angeles Rams (5-4). The two teams occupy third place in the NFC North and NFC West, respectively. The Bears are coming off of a 20-13 home win over the Detroit Lions. The Rams fell 17-12 on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Here, we’ll make our picks on the moneyline, spread and over/under between the Bears and Rams while also looking at the best prop bet based on the matchup from either DraftKings Sportsbook or FanDuel Sportsbook.
Actionable betting advice for the Week 11 matchup will be provided as either “picks” or “leans”. Picks are to be made at any point during the week with a high degree of confidence based on the matchup. The odds listed at the time of publishing may be the most favorable. Leans can hinge a little more on outside factors such as injury designations and line movement. Betting action throughout the week can move the lines toward a more desired – and more profitable – number by game time Sunday.
While researching for your Bears and Rams bets, be sure to check out my Sunday Night Football Preview at TheLines. It breaks down the statistical and betting trends of both teams and highlights the key on-field matchups.
Bears at Rams picks: Moneyline
The Rams enter Week 11 with a 2-2 record at home while the Bears have started the year 2-2 on the road. L.A. loses by an average of 0.2 points per game with Chicago losing by 2.3 points per game through nine games. Only five teams are averaging fewer points for per game than the Bears’ 18.0. The Rams rank 10th in the NFL with 25.1 points for per game but they allow 21.2 PPG to Chicago’s 17.4 points allowed. The Bears and Rams allow 327.3 and 331.0 total yards of offense per game, respectively. Both teams allow fewer than 95 rushing yards per game.
The two teams have met just once since the Rams relocated to Los Angeles from St. Louis. The Bears claimed a 15-6 victory at home at Soldier Field in Week 14 of last season. Quarterbacks Jared Goff and Mitchell Trubisky combined to throw for 290 yards with a total of one touchdown and seven interceptions. Rams RB Todd Gurley rushed for just 28 yards on 11 carries for what was his worst statistical game of the season.
Chicago received a confidence boost with last week’s win over the rival Lions. The Rams suffered a defeat coming off of their bye week and their 12 points were the second-fewest they’ve scored in a game this year. Back the stronger defense of Chicago on the road.
The Pick: Bears +260 (at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Bears at Rams picks: Against the spread
The Bears are catching 6.5 points as the road team at both of the aforementioned sportsbooks. DraftKings is paying out at -110 on both sides. FanDuel favors the Rams’ side (-6.5) at -115 with the Bears -105. It’s the third-largest line of the season for the Rams as favorites. They’re 6-3 against the spread overall but just 1-2 at home where they fail to cover by an average of eight points.
Chicago hasn’t been spotted more than five points this season and it closed as an underdog just once coming into this week. The Bears are 3-6 ATS overall and 1-2 on the road. Four of the Rams’ five victories came by at least seven points while three of Chicago’s five losses were by at least seven points.
I believe the Bears win this game outright as the better defensive club and with a better turnover differential, but the spread is a stronger play for a heavier bet with six points of insurance. The spread already rose by a half-point at DraftKings since opening at an even 6 Sunday night. Wait this one out to see if we can get 7 or even 7.5 points before jumping on the Bears.
The Lean: Bears +6.5 (-105 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Bears at Rams picks: Over/Under
The projected total at DrafKings has dropped by one point from an opening of 42 and now sits at 41. It opened at 41 at FanDuel but was briefly bet up to 42 before dropping back down by Wednesday afternoon. It matches Chicago’s second-highest total of the season but is the lowest of the year for Los Angeles.
The Rams come into Week 11 having played to four consecutive Unders. Their last two games had totals of just 34 and 29 combined points. They’re 3-6 against the O/U for the year and fall an average of 2.9 points per game below the projection. The Bears have hit the Under in three straight games and are also 3-6 for the season. They’ve averaged 4.9 fewer points than what was projected.
I like the Under in Week 11 but it will be best to wait until Sunday evening for a few extra points of insurance. A number such as 42.5 or 43 would warrant immediate action for me. Otherwise, I’ll be fine with this current number at game time.
The Lean: UNDER 41 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Sunday Night Football best bet
Again, this will be one to leave until closer to the game in hopes of better odds. For the Bears to win outright, as I predict they will, it will require a defensive battle. Trubisky and his 173.75 passing yards per game won’t be able to compete in a shootout.
Even for those wanting to bet the Rams at home on the moneyline, this is a good spot to hedge as the Under is the most likely outcome in a Chicago win.