The 2019-20 NBA season opened last month and we have an exciting game slate this Wednesday.
On every big slate this season, PlayPicks is providing our top bets against the spread and against point totals for all the NBA games.
Injuries can always play a factor into the point spreads listed by US sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook in the NBA. Keep an eye on the status of star players with any sort of nagging injury or “load management” concerns as well.
In this column, we will list three of our best bets against the spread with data to support our picks. Then, we will list the following games on the NBA slate in order of our confidence in analyzing the matchup.
Keep in mind that lines can often shift when players are announced out due to rest or injury.
NBA November 13 Best Bets
Los Angeles Lakers (-8) vs Golden State Warriors
Young teams are naturally more susceptible to blowout losses on the road and the G-League Warriors have been no different. They’re 1-4 with a -9.2 point differential and are allowing 48.4 RPG, 7.2 BPG, and 14.8 3PTM per game on the road this season. The Lakers, meanwhile, are dominating with a +12.6 differential while allowing just 94.2 PPG at home this year.
The Lakers are on the second half of a B2B set, but have plenty of depth with Rajon Rondo and Kyle Kuzma working their way back into shape. Anthony Davis actually posted his highest offensive rating (129) when playing on 0 days rest last season and LeBron James tends to carry with a 32.2% usage rate in his career on the second half of B2B sets. The concern here would be one of those veterans getting a night off for load management or being somewhat passive against an overmatched Warriors squad, but pounding Golden State is still a point of pride for most teams in the West. Stop D’Angelo Russell, and the Dubs will have nowhere to go offensively.
The Lakers are 4-1 ATS at home and 6-3 ATS as favorites this year. They’re closing out games with authority and used a late surge to cover comfortably in a win at Phoenix last night. Now this spread is down to 8 points after opening at 12 points, so a cover is much more likely.
Toronto Raptors (+2.5) at Portland Blazers
After the Blazers let the public down with a 9-point loss in a game they were expected to win at Sacramento last night, it’s time to pile on Portland. They turn around and host Toronto on the second of a B2B set, and are just 1-2-1 ATS at Moda Center this year. The 4-7 Blazers are badly missing Al-Farouq Aminu and Maurice Harkless on the wing, while C.J. McCollum is slumping mightily with a 95 offensive rating (he finished with a 113 rating last season). With Zach Collins (shoulder) out, Hassan Whiteside is basically their only option down low, and he’s averaging a modest 11.8 PPG on .534% true shooting in his career when playing on 0 days rest.
Toronto’s size and length should therefore give Portland fits. With Serge Ibaka (ankle) out, Chris Boucher has suddenly emerged as a fantastic option on the wing. The 6-foot-9 Boucher is nearly as versatile as 6-foot-9 stud Pascal Siakam, and the lineup with those two forwards, Marc Gasol, Norman Powell, and Fred VanVleet boasts an 88.9 defensive rating. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and rookie Terence Davis have combined with those forwards to post a 158.8 offensive rating in a limited sample, so the Raptors should do just fine with starter OG Anunoby (eye) ruled out tonight.
The key stat here? Toronto ranks second in 3-point percentage (.394%) and Portland has been tagged for 38 made threes over its last three contests.
Boston Celtics (-8) vs Washington Wizards
This line opened at -11 but has since come down to a more reasonable number, as we’d expect the Celtics to win a ninth straight by around 10 points. Washington’s defense is abysmal. The Wizards rank 29th in defensive rating and have been lucky to only yield 105.5 PPG on the road since opponents are shooting just 32.4% from deep over those 4 contests.
The Celtics are hitting 14 threes per game at a 37.8% clip when playing at home, with Kemba Walker averaging 29 PPG at the TD Garden. Walker has caught fire from downtown (21-for-41) over Boston’s last four wins and his efficiency has increased with a 133 and 137 offensive rating in two games since Gordon Hayward (hand) went down. Jaylen Brown has stepped up with a 143 and 137 offensive rating in those two contests and should do a great job defensively on Washington’s dangerous duo of Bradley Beal and Isaiah Thomas. If Brown and Marcus Smart can hold those guards in check, the Wizards should have little chance to stay competitive in a tough road environment.
NBA November 13 Picks Against The Spread
Minnesota Wolves (-1.5) vs San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio has been dreadful lately and fell at home to a Memphis squad that came into the game with the worst net rating in the NBA. Andrew Wiggins is lighting it up suddenly and could outplay DeMar DeRozan while Karl-Anthony Towns dominates veteran LaMarcus Aldridge.
Charlotte Hornets (-2.5) vs Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies covered on the road for the first time this season and are therefore getting some juice heading into a road tilt at Charlotte. But the Hornets have won 5 straight over Memphis and have more talent in the backcourt along with more experience in the frontcourt.
Los Angels Clippers (+2.5) at Houston Rockets
Paul George (shoulders) could make his season debut tonight and give the Clippers a lift, but either way, we expect Kawhi Leonard to contain James Harden and lead his squad to a road victory.
Orlando Magic (-2.5) vs Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers were 5-8 on 0 days rest last season and Ben Simmons (shoulder) is still banged up. The Magic beat Philly handily in both meetings between these teams in Orlando.