The 2019-20 NBA season opened last month and we have an excellent eight game slate this Tuesday.
On every big slate this season, PlayPicks is providing our top bets against the spread and against point totals for all the NBA games.
Injuries can always play a factor into the point spreads listed by US sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook in the NBA. Keep an eye on the status of star players with any sort of nagging injury or “load management” concerns as well.
In this column, we will list three of our best bets against the spread with data to support our picks. Then, we will list the following games on the NBA slate in order of our confidence in analyzing the matchup.
Keep in mind that lines can often shift when players are announced out due to rest or injury.
NBA November 12 Best Bets
Portland Blazers (-2) at Sacramento Kings
The Kings have pulled out of their early-season nose dive, but could start spiraling again now that De’Aaron Fox (ankle) is on the shelf along with Marvin Bagley (thumb) for at least the remainder of November. Fox will be particularly missed in tonight’s matchup against Damian Lillard, who averaged 30 PPG in rather inefficient fashion (.396% FG shooting) over two meetings with the Kings last season thanks to Fox’s nagging defense. Cory Joseph is the next man up for Sacramento and his backup, Yogi Ferrell, is a defensive liability.
Last year, Portland went 14-3 when listed as a road favorite. The Blazers have struggled a bit out of the gate, but seem to have found a third scoring option in second-year man Anfernee Simons. The Blazers also expect sharpshooter Rodney Hood (back) to return to the lineup tonight. Portland has been getting points in the paint with consistency and the Kings are yielding league-high .495% FG shooting this season.
Los Angeles Lakers (-4) at Phoenix Suns
This line has already moved after opening at just -2, with sharps backing the Lakers against the overachieving Suns. Phoenix has started hot thanks to league-best FG shooting (.475%) but will find the sledding tougher against a Lakers team that allows just 44 PPG in the paint and ranks first in defensive rating. Even without defensive stoppers Danny Green and Avery Bradley on the roster, the Lakers held Suns star Devin Booker to 18.8 PPG and 2-for-14 3PT shooting over 4 meetings last year.
The Lakers went on a 7-game win streak after taking their first loss of the season in their opener, and won those first three games by an average of 19 PPG. They’re coming off a home loss to Toronto and LeBron James is sure to inspire his team in a bounce back effort against a division opponent.
Miami Heat (-8) vs Detroit Pistons
With a significant advantage in terms of rest, Miami is expected to handle a Detroit team that could be without Blake Griffin (hamstring) and/or Derrick Rose (hamstring) on the second half of a B2B set. Griffin only played 24 minutes in his season debut Monday and should be very limited if he’s active on zero days rest. Pistons backup PG Bruce Brown (knee) also seems to be limited and Reggie Jackson (back) is out for the rest of the month.
The Pistons went 13-19-1 ATS as road underdogs last year and 11-12-2 ATS with a rest disadvantage. Miami is 3-0 ATS with a rest advantage this year and 2-0 as a home favorite. The Heat impressed with a win in Phoenix last week before falling to the Lakers on the second half of a B2B on the road. Back home, where they yield 99.3 PPG while scoring 120.3 PPG this season, the Heat could win handily.
NBA November 12 Picks Against The Spread
Indiana Pacers (-3) vs Oklahoma City Thunder
The Pacers are starting to find their stride offensively and the Thunder struggles to score against good defensive teams. Look for Domantas Sabonis to lead the way against his former team.
Utah Jazz (-7) vs Brooklyn Nets
Utah is a great home team and Brooklyn’s defense has been pathetic so far this season. If the Jazz contain Kyrie Irving, they should roll.
Cleveland Cavaliers (+10.5) at Philadelphia 76ers
This line opened at +12 and has since been bet down by sharp action. The Sixers will be easier to back if Ben Simmons is listed as starting, but have struggled with their oversized PG on the shelf.
Denver Nuggets (-12) vs Atlanta Hawks
While this number continues to rise, the Nuggets are the type of team that tends to pull away when they win at home and the Hawks should have no answers for Nikola Jokic.
New York Knicks (+6) at Chicago Bulls
The Knicks are 4-2 ATS on the road and are apparently playing for David Fizdale’s job.