The 2019-20 NBA season opened last month and we have a great 6-game slate this Friday.
On every big slate this season, PlayPicks is providing our top bets against the spread and against point totals for all the NBA games.
Injuries can always play a factor into the point spreads listed by US sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook in the NBA. Keep an eye on the status of star players with any sort of nagging injury or “load management” concerns as well.
In this column, we will list three of our best bets against the spread with data to support our picks. Then, we will list the following games on the NBA slate in order of our confidence in analyzing the matchup.
Keep in mind that lines can often shift when players are announced out due to rest or injury.
NBA November 11 Best Bets
Utah Jazz (-8) at Golden State Warriors
The Warriors took the Wolves to overtime on Friday thanks to a 52-point performance from D’Angelo Russell in his return. Russell isn’t going to shoot like that against Utah’s top-rated defense. In fact, Russell averages just 12.5 PPG with his worst FG shooting splits (.320%) over 8 career meetings with the Jazz. Draymond Green (finger) is expected to return to the lineup tonight, yet he’s been a complete liability on offense and is an awkward fit in lineups that don’t include either Splash Brother. That leaves the Warriors with a cast of G-League caliber players and the most promising of the bunch, Eric Paschall, is questionable with a hip contusion.
Utah’s offense has been a mixed bag this season as Mike Conley struggles to get integrated. There have been no such issues for Bojan Bogdanovic, who is averaging a career-best 24.1 points per 36 minutes with .641% true shooting. The Warriors are yielding the most PPG (121.1) and second-most 3PTM (13.8) per game, so Bodganovic and fellow sharpshooter should help Utah pull away and finally pull off a resounding road win.
Toronto Raptors (+9.5) at Los Angeles Clippers
The Raptors are on the second half of a B2B set, but are in the same city of course after beating the Lakers, 113-104, last night. The Raptors will also be without Kyle Lowry (hand) and Serge Ibaka (ankle), but Fred VanVleet has arguably been the better PG over the past season-plus and Chris Boucher gave them quality minutes so far in Ibaka’s absence.
Toronto went 14-8 ATS as a road underdog last season and posted the second-best record (9-3) when playing on zero days rest. Of course these Raptors will be fired up to try and beat their former leader, Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers are a middling 14th in defensive rating, compared to the top-rated Lakers defense. Pascal Siakam should have little trouble keeping Toronto in this game by attacking the basket.
Memphis Grizzlies (+11) at San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have taken a massive step backwards this season and actually have a negative net rating. They haven’t shown the same type of dominance at home and are vulnerable to a young athletic team, as proven by their 20-point drubbing at the hands of the quicker Celtics.
San Antonio is 1-5 ATS at home this season and only has one double-digit victory all year. That came against the Warriors’ G-League roster, and even in that game the Spurs struggled to pull away until the fourth quarter. DeMar DeRozan has simply not been the same player with a modest 106 offensive rating and LaMarcus Aldridge is down from 117 to a 110 offensive rating this season. Aldridge averaged just 18 PPG on .411% FG shooting over four meetings with Memphis last season.
Granted, the Grizzlies have been awful on the road with three losses by a combined 70 points. But Jaren Jackson Jr. is getting healthy and Ja Morant should be back in the lineup after resting on Saturday.
NBA November 11 Picks Against The Spread
Detroit Pistons (-3) vs Minnesota Wolves
The Pistons should be far more dangerous with Blake Griffin expected to make his season debut tonight. This is also a revenge game for Derrick Rose (hamstring) if he can get back on the court.
Dallas Mavericks (+4) at Boston Celtics
Boston’s run of blowout wins should come to an end with uber-efficient scorer Gordon Hayward (fractured hand) now inactive. Luka Doncic has kept nearly every game close and this line is creeping higher to give Dallas even more value.
Houston Rockets (-6.5) at New Orleans Pelicans
The Rockets defensive woes are certainly a concern, but New Orleans is a predictable offensive team right now with Jrue Holiday and Brandon Ingram handling all the heavy lifting.