Welcome to the Monday Night Football betting breakdown, where I’ll provide a betting overview of the upcoming MNF game utilizing moneyline, points spread, and projected total odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook. Additionally, I’ll hone in on at least one player or game prop each week that I feel has profit potential at one of those three sportsbooks.
All betting takes will be classified as either a “lean” or a “pick.” A lean is a wager that we have a determined degree of certainty. However, it’s one that still falls somewhere short of a high-confidence selection. A pick carries an additional degree of confidence based on a variety of factors. These include relevant injuries, the past track records for certain conditions and bet types, and team performances leading up to the game.
For more detailed information on this week’s matchup, including further game analysis, betting trends breakdown, betting tips specific to MNF, and a synopsis of the history of the line movement for the game, please see our Monday Night Football Betting Preview over at TheLines.
Seahawks at 49ers, Monday, Nov. 11, 8:15 p.m. ET
The Seahawks‘ offensive and defensive units have been more of an intertwined relationship this season than is usually the case on most clubs. Seattle is both scoring and giving up plenty of points. The Seahawks have averaged 27.6 points per game, scoring 21 points or more in all but one game this season. Yet, they’ve also surrendered more than 20 points in all but one game, including 26 or more in five of those contests.
That could be problematic on multiple fronts against the 49ers. San Francisco, with the NFL-low 138.1 passing yards per contest they’ve yielded and 30 sacks, are going to make life more difficult for Russell Wilson than previous opponents like the Buccaneers, Falcons and Browns have. Then, the Niners have been attacking on offense successfully with a multi-faceted ground attack all season. But they’re progressively adding an effective passing game to the mix now that they’ve added Emmanuel Sanders to a receiving corps that lacked a true No. 1 option before. Sanders scored in each of his first two games with San Fran, doing so despite having to play those two games within a nine-day period of coming over from the Broncos.
Jimmy Garoppolo, prone to mistakes for the first several games, is performing much better with Sanders in the fold. The veteran quarterback comes in with back-to-back games of averaging at least 8.0 yards per attempt in back-to-back games and a 6:1 TD:INT over that span as well. He also boasts his two best completion percentages of the season, 81.8 and 75.7, in those contests. He’ll be in excellent position to keep his hot streak going — the Seahawks check in allowing 278.1 passing yards per game and the fourth-most passing yards overall (2,605).
And, finally, it’s also worth taking note of what appears to be an increasingly vulnerable Seattle run defense. The Seahawks are still allowing a respectable 102.7 rushing yards per contest. But, they’ve allowed 122.3 over their last three games overall. Then, the Niners are averaging 171.1 rushing yards per contest, including a whopping 225 per home contest. Matt Breida does have an ankle injury and was listed as questionable heading into Saturday’s practice. However, were he to miss, Tevin Coleman is certainly capable of assuming lead-back duties. Backup Raheem Mostert is also questionable with a knee injury going into Saturday. But, Jeff Wilson, Jr. waits in the wings to serve as a solid complementary option should Mostert sit out.
The 49ers opened up as 5.5-point favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook late last week, and that number has now been bet up a full point. Both teams notched close victories in Week 9, but San Francisco’s 28-25 victory over the Cardinals was arguably more lopsided than the score indicated, as explained earlier. Meanwhile, the Seahawks deficiencies in the secondary continued to rear their collective head.
The Seahawks are 4-5 (44.4 percent) against the spread this season, including 3-1 (75.0 percent) as an away team. Seattle is also 1-1 versus the number in NFC West battles this season.
The 49ers are 5-3 (62.5 percent) against the spread this season, including 2-1 (66.7 percent) as a home team. San Francisco is also 1-1 ATS in NFC West games in 2019.
The Niners undoubtedly are a tall mountain to climb for any team, even one as talented as Seattle. However, with the number now having come up a full point, I’m leaning toward the Seahawks being able to slide just under the number in a close game.
The Lean: Seahawks +6.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The oddsmakers and public expect some points to be scored here. That’s not necessarily surprising despite the 49ers’ well-earned status as an elite defense. Half of San Fran’s eight games have actually exceeded 47 points, while five of Seattle’s nine games have done the same.
The Over is 5-4 (55.6 percent) in the Seahawks’ games this season, including 2-2 (50.0 percent) in their away games. In turn, the Over is 3-5 (37.5 percent) in the 49ers’ games this season, including 1-2 (33.3 percent) in their home games.
Even with San Francisco’s defense playing at home, I’m in the camp of the Over when considering the Seahawks’ strong offense and San Francisco’s strong chance of having plenty of success through the air against Seattle.
The Pick: Over 47.0 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Best Prop Bets
Any time touchdown scorer: Emmanuel Sanders (+195 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
As has already been emphasized, the Seahawks’ secondary leaves plenty to be desired. In addition to the numbers already cited, it’s worth noting they’ve allowed the third-most receptions (126) and fourth-most receiving yards (1,602) to wide receivers, along with six touchdowns. Sanders has scored in each of his first two games with the 49ers and should have a much better grasp of the playbook now that he’s had some extended time to delve into the offense. He’s also seen a total of seven red-zone targets in nine games. That puts him on pace to clear the career-high 11 he logged with the Broncos during the 2016 season. At this appealing price, this is therefore a prop worth considering.