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cowboys vikings picks

The Dallas Cowboys (5-3) make a second straight appearance on primetime when they host the Minnesota Vikings (6-3) at AT&T Stadium in the Week 10 Sunday Night Football matchup. Our SNF betting breakdown looks at the best bets and picks between the Vikings and Cowboys on the moneyline, spread and over/under as well as the week’s best prop bet at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook. The Cowboys come into the week with a slight lead over the Philadelphia Eagles atop the NFC East. The Vikings trail the Green Bay Packers by a game in the NFC North. Dallas topped the New York Giants 37-18 in the Week 9 Monday Night Football divisional showdown. Minnesota was upset by a 26-23 count on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs and backup quarterback Matt Moore.

Advice on each bet type will be provided as either a “pick” or a “lean”. Picks are made with a high degree of confidence based on the matchup and the current odds at the time of publishing. Leans are more hesitant plays often recommended only if the betting odds and lines reach a certain, more appealing number. Odds can shift throughout the week based on injury news and betting action at the sportsbook; monitor the lines and be prepared to place a wager at the desired number.

While researching for your Vikings and Cowboys bets, be sure to check out my Sunday Night Football Preview at TheLines. It breaks down the statistical and betting trends of both teams and highlights the key on-field matchups.

Vikings at Cowboys picks: Moneyline

The Cowboys are favored at home, snapping an SNF streak of two consecutive home underdogs (Baltimore Ravens, Chiefs). Dallas has won three of four games at AT&T Stadium this year while Minnesota is just 2-3 straight up on the road, including last week’s loss. Only four teams in the NFL average more than the Cowboys’ 28.4 points per game on offense, and they also rank fifth with 17.8 points allowed per game. The Vikes are fourth with 17.6 PPG allowed while ranking 11th with 26.0 points per game scored.

Both teams have leaned heavily on the ground game with Minnesota averaging 153.0 team rushing yards per game, led by NFL rushing leader Dalvin Cook‘s 894 yards on the ground. Dallas ranks fourth in the league, just one spot below the Vikings, with 149.3 team rushing yards per game. Defensively, the Vikings and Cowboys rank ninth and 11th in the NFL with 95.8 and 97.3 rushing yards allowed per game. With both sides well-equipped to handle the other’s top offensive strength, the edge goes to Dallas and its 287.5 passing yards per game.

Cowboys LB Leighton Vander Esch (neck) is expected to return to the lineup this week. Vikings WR Adam Thielen (hamstring) is all but ruled out, making now the time to back Dallas ahead of a potential line drop.

The Pick: Cowboys -166 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Vikings at Cowboys picks: Against the spread

Dallas is 5-3 against the spread through half of its season. The Cowboys win by an average of 10.6 points per game and cover the number by an average of 3.4. Minnesota is 5-4 ATS, winning by an average of 8.4 PPG and covering by 3.6 points on average. The Cowboys improve to 3-1 ATS at home where they win by 15 points per game. The Vikings drop to 2-3 ATS as visitors but still win by 2.4 PPG and cover by 0.1 points. The spread of -3 in favor of the Cowboys this week at both DraftKings and FanDuel matches the Week 7 spread against the Eagles as their second-smallest of the season. The +3 on the other side for the Vikings matches their Week 2 number on the road against the Green Bay Packers. It was the only other time they were underdogs this season.

Minnesota has recovered well this season, going 2-0 ATS after a loss. Dallas is 3-1 ATS following a win, though, and they’ve won by an average of 13 points in those games. Both teams have struggled against quality opponents over the last two seasons. The Vikes are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record and the ‘Boys are 0-5 in their last five such situations.

This line may shift further toward the home team by Sunday evening, as the -118 odds at DraftKings already suggest. Hop on the more profitable -110 odds at FanDuel before that line follows suit.

The Pick: Cowboys -3 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Vikings at Cowboys picks: Over/Under

The mid-week projection of 48 combined points would be the highest projected total of any Vikings game this season. It would be the third-highest total for the Cowboys but their lowest in the last three games. Minnesota is just 4-5 against those lower projections this season, but top the number by an average of 0.2 PPG. Dallas is 5-3 against the O/U but falls an average of 0.4 points shy of the projections.

The Over is 9-2 in the Vikings’ last 11 games against the NFC and 7-2 in the Cowboys’ last nine conference games. Two of the four games at AT&T Stadium this year played to the Over. The Vikings are 2-3 against the O/U in their five road games.

Lean to the UNDER, but wait until the weekend with the number trending up through the week thus far.

The Lean: UNDER 48 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook) 

Sunday Night Football best bet

Half Time/End of Quarter 4 Result: DAL Cowboys/DAL Cowboys +118

The Cowboys led at the half in each of their five victories this season. The Vikings were 0-2-1 at the half in their three losses. They were also 5-0-1 in their six victories, but we’ll side with the books and the projected outcome of a Cowboys win and double down on them going wire-to-wire.

Dallas ranks second in the NFL in time per play in the first half. The Cowboys can strike quickly with the pass before slowing things down with the run in the second session. The Vikings won’t be able to keep up early on without Thielen in the lineup.