With the 2019-20 NFL season underway, oddsmakers are constantly adjusting lines to account for the performance of players and teams in Weeks 1-9.
Injury updates on star players such as Patrick Mahomes (knee), Alvin Kamara (ankle), and Adam Thielen (hamstring) will soon change the point spreads listed by US sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook for Week 10 of the NFL season.
At PlayPicks, we feel confident with the information that we have to start making our picks against the spread.
In this weekly column, we will list three of our best bets against the spread with data to support our picks. Then, we will list the following games on the NFL slate in order of our confidence in analyzing the matchup. Keep in mind that lines can often shift due to weather or other unforeseen issues. Of course, injury news plays a huge role throughout the NFL season, and the status of specific players often bears monitoring until a couple of hours before kickoff.
NFL Week 10 Best Bets
Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) at San Francisco 49ers
This is our most confident pick of the season to date with the Seahawks getting 6 points in a game that should essentially be a toss up. The 49ers defense has been great and will be fired up at home on Monday night, but Russell Wilson is playing on an unparalleled level right now and should almost certainly find a way to keep this battle for NFC West supremacy close. Wilson tossed 6 TDs without a pick and completed 70.8 percent of his passes in two meetings with SF last year. While the Niners defense is significantly better this year, so is Wilson (22:1 TD:INT ratio), and so is the Seahawks offense now that they’ve abandoned their stubborn run-heavy approach.
The Niners actually rank 20th in DVOA rush defense and looked vulnerable at all levels against the quick-hitting Cardinals offense last Thursday. If Kyler Murray is a promising pupil, Wilson is a PHD in mobile quarterbacking. Offensively, the Niners are a run-heavy team and Jimmy Garoppolo has struggled (aside from shredding the weak Cardinals secondary). Yet their offensive line has mediocre run blocking grades and the Seahawks defensive line ranks seventh against power run blocking.
San Francisco is only 5-3 ATS overall and Seattle is 3-1 ATS on the road this year. The Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS as road underdogs since the start of last season with Wilson posting an absurd 117.8 passer rating on the road during that span.
New York Giants (-3) at New York Jets
The Jets proved that they’re one of the few teams less interested in winning games this season than the Dolphins last Sunday. They nearly traded Le’Veon Bell at the deadline and now their high-priced offensive acquisition is likely to join high-priced defensive acquisition C.J. Mosley on the shelf. Sam Darnold is struggling behind an offensive line that ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate and the Giants have compiled a respectable 22 sacks. The G-Men also rank third against power run blocking this year and are up to 14th in DVOA rush defense, so they can force Darnold to try and beat them.
On the other side of the ball, the Giants offense is getting healthy with Sterling Shepard (concussion) back in the lineup and Saquon Barkley (ankle) looking more explosive each week. Daniel Jones is still learning, but he should be able to captain the Giants to a win on neutral ground against a Jets defense with the fourth-fewest sacks (13) on the season.
Kansas City Chiefs (-5) at Tennessee Titans
The Titans defense has been mostly smoke and mirrors this season and faces its toughest challenge yet with Patrick Mahomes (knee) expected to return this Sunday. The Chiefs offense has still been quite dangerous with Matt Moore under center and now ranks third in points per drive (2.64) on the season. Tennessee’s offense has improved with Ryan Tannehill taking over, but still ranks 26th in points per drive with the third-most punts per drive this season.
The key advantage will be KC attacking through the air in Nashville, where temperatures are expected to be around 60 degrees with no precipitation. The Titans rank 20th in DVOA pass defense and have been particularly vulnerable against speedy WRs, so Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and Mecole Hardman could all have big days with Mahomes slinging the ball.
Kansas City’s defense is quite underrated given its poor performance last season and struggles to stop the run earlier this year. But the Chiefs are yielding a modest 95 rushing YPG while winning two of their last three contests and just got elite DT Chris Jones back last week. They’re up to fourth in DVOA pass defense, so it’s unlikely Tannehill and his middling corps of receivers will be able to keep pace if Mahomes gives KC an early lead. The Titans are also expected to be without top WR Corey Davis (hip) in addition to TE Delanie Walker and excellent DT Jurell Casey.
NFL Week 10 Picks Against The Spread
Detroit Lions (+2.5) at Chicago Bears
The Bears are a mess on offense and the Lions secondary gives no quarter. Matt Stafford has played very well on the road in division games and could pile onto Chicago’s woes.
Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) vs Tampa Bay Bucs
This is more of a coin flip game the way the Bucs get into shootouts and can’t stop the pass on defense. Kyler Murray and company are 6-3 ATS this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5) vs Los Angeles Rams
The Steelers defense has been incredible at home and Jared Goff can be pressured into costly turnovers. If the Rams don’t establish the run, they could lose outright.
Dallas Cowboys (-3) vs Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have been gashed on the ground recently and will be hard pressed to mount a comeback if they let Ezekiel Elliott get going early.
Miami Dolphins (+11.5) at Indianapolis Colts
The Dolphins might not keep winning, but they’re playing well enough to hang with a Colts team that has been very beatable with T.Y. Hilton (calf) out and would be quite pedestrian if Jacoby Brisset (knee) can’t play.
Atlanta Falcons (+14) at New Orleans Saints
With both teams coming out of their bye week, this has the feeling of a game that will be more competitive than suggested on paper. Take the Falcons to cover as they play for Dan Quinn’s job.
Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
A.J. Green seems to be backing out of returning in Week 10 and Ryan Finley is a wildcard in his first start against a surging Ravens defense. Lamar Jackson is dealing with an illness, which could drive this sizable number down a couple points.
Green Bay Packers (-5) vs Carolina Panthers
It all comes down to containing Christian McCaffrey. If they can do that, the Packers should run away in this home game after Aaron Rodgers called out his team for poor preparation in a loss at the Chargers.
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-3)
A disastrous season continues for the Browns, but they’ll find a way to salvage something by topping turnover-prone Josh Allen and the Bills. Buffalo is a far inferior team when playing on the road.