The 2019-20 NBA season opened last month and we have a huge nine-game slate this Wednesday.
On every big slate this season, PlayPicks is providing our top bets against the spread and against point totals for all the NBA games.
Injuries can always play a factor into the point spreads listed by US sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook in the NBA. Keep an eye on the status of star players with any sort of nagging injury or “load management” concerns as well.
In this column, we will list three of our best bets against the spread with data to support our picks. Then, we will list the following games on the NBA slate in order of our confidence in analyzing the matchup.
Keep in mind that lines can often shift when players are announced out due to rest or injury.
NBA November 6 Best Bets
Minnesota Wolves (-4.5) at Memphis Grizzlies
Karl-Anthony Towns returns from suspension tonight and will be able to take out his aggression on a weak Grizzlies squad that is allowing a league-high 56.3 PPG in the paint this season. Towns averaged 22.5 PPG and 17.8 RPG while shooting 54.1% from the floor over 4 meetings with Memphis last year. He’s far too quick for Jonas Valanciunas to cover and too bulky for second-year PF Jaren Jackson Jr.
Memphis has tremendous deficiencies on the offensive side of the ball, but is still pushing the pace in a rebuilding year. The Grizzlies are dead last in 3-point shooting (.265%) and 29th in offensive rating. Minnesota is thriving despite yielding the second-highest mark from 3-point range (.389%), so the Wolves could capitalize on missed shots and push the pace in the other direction. Secondary options such as Andrew Wiggins and Robert Covington should have more confidence after carrying the load in two games without Towns, and they could help put the Wolves over the top as they look to move to 4-1 on the road.
Atlanta Hawks (-2.5) vs Chicago Bulls
The Hawks have been seriously undervalued so far this season, and proved it by not only covering a 5.5-point spread, but defeating the Spurs 108-100 last night. Now they’ll host a Bulls team that is likely being overvalued after hanging with the Lakers until the fourth quarter last night. Chicago had to travel for this B2B set, but lack of rest shouldn’t be a critical factor for either youth-laden team.
The most critical factor should be Trae Young’s truly elite PG play against a poor defensive backcourt. Young started slowly in his first two meetings with the Bulls, but went nuts for 49 points and 16 assists in a 4OT thriller on March 1. He’s been on a tear ever since and is currently leading the NBA in Box Plus/Minus. Jabari Parker and De’Andre Hunter stepped up to help the Hawks actually win the rebounding battle, 48-41, in their first game without John Collins (suspension). The Bulls also give up the most RPG (51.4) this year, so size won’t be too much of an issue in this matchup.
Atlanta is holding opponents to just 102.5 PPG at home and welcomes a Chicago team that ranks 28th in overall FG shooting (.427%) this season. The Bulls went 12-27 when listed as road underdogs last season and the Hawks are better than their 3-3 records suggests, since their losses came to the Sixers and twice to the Heat with Young inactive.
Washington Wizards (+5.5) at Indiana Pacers
After winning three straight against below-average ECF teams, the Pacers fell in overtime last night in Charlotte. They’ll have a quick turnaround for tonight’s home game against a Wizards team that plays with a lot of pace and actually ranks fourth in offensive rating so far this year. The return of Isaiah Thomas has sparked that offense further with the Wizards averaging 128.5 PPG over four contests with IT active. The Wizards will clearly have the best player on the floor as well in Bradley Beal.
Indiana ranks 19th in offensive rating, 26th in 3PTM (8.6), and dead last in FTA (17.9) per game this season. With Domantas Sabonis (calf) out and Myles Turner (ankle) out, the Pacers will likely continue to find consistent offense in the paint. Washington is funneling the opposition inside while allowing the third-fewest 3PTA (34.5) and fifth-fewest FTA (24.2) per game this year. Thomas Bryant and Rui Hachimura have been holding down the Wizards interior defense, giving the road team an advantage over a shorthanded Pacers squad. Washington is 3-0 ATS on the road so far this season.
NBA November 6 Picks Against The Spread
Dallas Mavericks (-7.5) vs Orlando Magic
The Mavericks are first in blocks per game and free throws allowed, indicating their strength on the defensive interior. If Orlando can’t get production inside from Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon, the road team will be sunk.
Toronto Raptors (-8) vs Sacramento Kings
The Kings finally found their backbone with a win over Utah last week, but have been simply dreadful on the road so far this season. The Raptors are 3-0 ATS at home.
Utah Jazz (-2) vs Philadelphia 76ers
Joel Embiid will return from suspension, but face a brutal matchup against Rudy Gobert. The Sixers perimeter defense was exposed by the Suns and could struggle again on the road against Donovan Mitchell and company.
Detroit Pistons (-2.5) vs New York Knicks
If Derrick Rose (hamstring) returns it will be easy to back the Pistons at home. If not, trust the Knicks to muck the game up and either win or keep it very close.
Los Angeles Clippers (+3.5) vs Milwaukee Bucks
With Kawhi Leonard sitting, it will be tough to trust the Clippers defense against Giannis Antetokounmpo. But Milwaukee is being a bit overvalued as road favorites considering the Bucks have mostly beat up on poor competition this season.
Golden State Warriors (+16.5) at Houston Rockets
As poor as the Warriors defense has been this year, Houston’s defense has been nearly as bad. There’s a good chance the Rockets don’t take the Warriors patchwork squad seriously and fail to cover this huge number.