The 2019-20 NBA season opened last month and we have a great six-game slate this Monday.
On every big slate this season, PlayPicks is providing our top bets against the spread and against point totals for all the NBA games.
Injuries can always play a factor into the point spreads listed by US sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook in the NBA. Keep an eye on the status of star players with any sort of nagging injury or “load management” concerns as well.
In this column, we will list three of our best bets against the spread with data to support our picks. Then, we will list the following games on the NBA slate in order of our confidence in analyzing the matchup.
Keep in mind that lines can often shift when players are announced out due to rest or injury.
NBA November 4 Best Bets
Houston Rockets (-5.5) at Memphis Grizzlies
At first, the Rockets couldn’t find their stroke from long range. Last week, they couldn’t string together any defensive stops in horrendous defensive efforts against the Wizards, Nets, and Heat. But now they could be poised to bounce back against a very inexperienced team.
Memphis is playing at the fourth-fastest pace in the league with Ja Morant running the show. The Rockets, who lead the league in pace, should feel right at home in an open court game, and they’re much better at that style than the Grizzlies. Houston ranks third in 3PTM (14.7) and first in attempts this year, while Memphis allows the third-most 3PTM (11.0) and is dead last in makes (9.0) per game.
James Harden averaged a whopping 47.3 PPG on .696% true shooting against the Grizzlies last year. His lofty production has resumed after a brief adjustment period with Russell Westbrook, and both guards should have big games tonight in what could be a runaway victory. Note that Memphis may also be without promising young forward Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee).
Portland Blazers (-10.5) at Golden State Warriors
Golden State was only a 7-point underdog in its first game after Steph Curry (broken hand) was lost for nearly half the season. That was the one time you could expect a galvanizing effect from the Warriors supporting cast to lead to a surprise cover, but they were unable to hang on after competing for three quarters, and fell by 17. The Dubs lost to Charlotte the next night and will now host a Blazers team that is coming off a demoralizing loss in Philadelphia.
Portland struggled to defend the paint with Hassan Whiteside (knee) out in addition to Zach Collins (shoulder), but Whiteside is expected to return tonight. The Blazers eight-rated offense has had few issues, and ranks second in 3-point shooting (.401%) this year. Golden State ranks 28th in opponent’s 3-point shooting (.384%) and 29th in FG shooting (.497%) with the worst defensive rating in the league.
D’Angelo Russell (ankle) could miss another game, leaving the Warriors rather helpless on offense. Draymond Green (finger) has been ruled out, leaving them without a defensive backbone. Double-digit losses should become the norm for this depleted roster, especially against a highly motivated Portland squad that was swept by the Dubs in the WCF last year.
Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5) at Minnesota Wolves
While the Wolves ran away from the Wizards with Karl-Anthony Towns suspended on Saturday night, they should not be trusted without their leader against a much better team. Towns leads the NBA in Win Shares per 48 Minutes and in overall Plus/Minus rating. The player right behind him in Plus/Minus is Giannis Antntokounmpo.
Giannis has delivered consecutive statements against the Magic and Raptors after the Celtics seem to get into his head a bit in a comeback win last Wednesday. The Greek Freak was a combined +42 over two easy wins over the Wolves last year and will now face slow-footed Gorgui Dieng as the last line of defense instead of Towns.
Milwaukee averages the most 3PTM (15.7) per game this year and Minnesota ranks 29th in opponents 3-point shooting (.396%). The Bucks went 20-14-2 ATS as road favorites last year and are 2-1 ATS so far this year.
NBA November 4 Picks Against The Spread
Washington Wizards (-3) vs Detroit Pistons
Detroit rode a huge game from Andre Drummond to down the Nets over the weekend, but with Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, and Reggie Jackson out, the Pistons luck should run out tonight.
New Orleans Pelicans (+3.5) at Brooklyn Nets
Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball do a good enough defensive job on Kyrie Irving for the Pelicans to keep this game close or pull off the road win.
Phoenix Suns (+1.5) vs Philadelphia 76ers
The Suns have the personnel to contain Al Horford and catch a break with Joel Embiid suspended for this contest.