The 2019-20 NBA season opened last week and we have a huge 11-game slate this Wednesday.
On every big slate this season, PlayPicks is providing our top bets against the spread and against point totals for all the NBA games.
Injuries can always play a factor into the point spreads listed by US sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook in the NBA. Keep an eye on the status of star players with any sort of nagging injury or “load management” concerns as well.
In this column, we will list three of our best bets against the spread with data to support our picks. Then, we will list the following games on the NBA slate in order of our confidence in analyzing the matchup.
Keep in mind that lines can often shift when players are announced out due to rest or injury.
NBA November 1 Best Bets
Utah Jazz (-5) at Sacramento Kings
The winless Kings have been horrible under new HC Luke Walton, who can’t seem to devise ways for his athletic squad to get out and run. Sacramento ranks 20th in pace after finishing in the top three the past two years under Dave Joerger. Since they rank 29th in defensive rating, it’s hard for the Kings to get out and run, resulting in the second-lowest PPG (98.9) average as well.
Utah is being under valued with just a 5-point spread on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Jazz thrive at a slow pace (27th this year) and rank first in defensive rating with Rudy Gobert anchoring the halfcourt. While he struggled badly in his first four games with the Jazz, Mike Conley caught fire in the third quarter of a win over the Clippers and should be locked in on both ends for Utah going forward. Bojan Bogdanovic has been a key pickup while shooting 44.4% from downtown and the Kings are allowing the fifth-most 3PTM (13.2) per game.
Sacramento’s closest losses have come by 7 points, and one of those was to lowly Charlotte. Utah is an impressive 36-21 ATS as a road favorite since 2015 and Sacremento went 27-31-2 ATS as an underdog last year.
San Antonio Spurs (-6.5) at Golden State Warriors
Already posting historically bad defensive numbers with a -11.0 net rating, the Warriors are now going forward without Steph Curry (broken hand). Curry shot 62.1% from 2-point range this season, but the Warriors still rank 25th in 2pt shooting (.477%). They also rank 29th in defensive rebounding and dead last in defensive rating, while the Spurs are fourth in overall FG shooting (.475%) and have length across the board to punish the young Warriors on the glass.
Aside from D’Angelo Russell, who is still finding a rhythm with a new team, the Warriors have no proven NBA scorers. Literally, none. Draymond Green‘s offensive game has been broken for years and they have seven first or second-year players in the rotation. With $118 million of their approximate $128 million in cap space tied up with Green, Russell, Curry, and Klay Thompson (knee), the Dubs are now the worst team in the NBA on paper.
The only concern for the Spurs to cover is the Warriors coming out inspired to prove their not sunk without Curry, but that will only get you so far against a well-coached team that executes ruthlessly.
MIlwaukee Bucks (-4.5) at Orlando Magic
Let’s see what happens when the reigning MVP gets mad. Let’s see what happens when Giannis Antetokounmpo gets mad at a time that he’s routinely dominated, posting his third-highest +/- rating (+31.5) while shooting 65.5% from the field in two appearances against Orlando last year. Giannis also averaged 32 PPG on 55.8% FG shooting over three meetings with Orlando the previous year.
Milwaukee’s last three wins over Orlando have come by an average of 16 PPG. While the Bucks dropped a puzzling 20-point decision to the Magic right before the ASB last year, Giannis sat out that game. Now he’ll be out for blood after getting frustrated and ultimately rattled by Marcus Smart and the Celtics on Wednesday, as his team coughed up a 19-point lead. The Magic are a great defensive team, but don’t have the same type of feisty defender or overall gumption to stop Giannis over four quarters.
Orlando is dead last in PPG (95.8) and 29th in 3PT shooting (.288%) this year, while Milwaukee is fourth in PPG (119.2) and went a league-best 19-7 ATS last year following a loss.
NBA November 1 Picks Against The Spread
Detroit Pistons (+3.5) at Chicago Bulls
Derrick Rose will assuredly give a great effort in front of his hometown Bulls and Chicago will have no answers for Andre Drummond down low.
Cleveland Cavs (+7.5) at Indiana Pacers
The Cavs might not replicate last week’s blowout win over the Pacers, but with Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson winning the battle on the boards, they should at least keep this road tilt close.
Houston Rockets (-4) at Brooklyn Nets
The Nets are already crumbling around Kyrie Irving, who should be able to match points and get this game Over the assigned 242-point total. Note the Rockets last game combined for 317 points in regulation.
Los Angeles Lakers (-1.5) at Dallas Mavericks
The Lakers have covered in three consecutive games since their opening night loss to the Clippers and Kristaps Porzingis (knee) is not back to full strength where you can trust him to contain Anthony Davis.
Boston Celtics (-10.5) vs New York Knicks
After erasing a 19-point deficit to down the Bucks by 11, the Celtics have too much momentum.