We’re halfway through the 2019-20 NFL season and a few players are starting to separate in terms of the race for league MVP.
We’re breaking down the current landscape with regards to the NFL futures market at PlayPicks, to give you the best bets for NFL MVP in 2019-20.
Odds may vary depending on your sportsbook. In this article, we will identify the best MVP bets based on the odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook. These bets will continue to shift throughout the regular season, so keep an eye on any key changes due to injuries or other news. And get ready to “buy low” if a potential MVP candidate sees improved odds due to a rough spell.
Background on NFL MVP
Awarded by the Associated Press since 1957, the MVP award is chosen by a panel of 50 media members at the end of the regular season. The results are announced a day before the Super Bowl.
From 1970-1979, the NFL handed out an MVP award to a representative from the AFC and NFC. That practice ended in 1980, although in 2003, Steve McNair and Peyton Manning were named co-MVPs.
Quarterbacks have won 12 of the past 13 MVP awards, with Adrian Peterson breaking through as a RB in 2012. The award has gone to a RB seven times since 1986, when Lawrence Taylor became the last defensive player to be named MVP.
Peyton Manning has won a record five MVP awards and Tom Brady leads all active players with three awards.
Week 9 NFL MVP Odds Report
Aaron Rodgers (+275)
With best receiver, Davante Adams, out for weeks with a toe injury, Rodgers has produced magic with guys that were pulled off the practice squad in recent weeks. He posted the first perfect quarterback rating in a Week 7 win over the Raiders and threw an incredible TD pass to Jamaal Williams will falling to the turf on Sunday night, paving the way for a 31-24 victory in Kansas City. Already in possession of two MVP awards, Rodgers is now the favorite to add a third to his collection.
Russell Wilson (+300)
Hype surrounding Wilson reached a crescendo in Week 5 when he posted a 151.3 passer rating in a narrow 30-29 win over the Rams on a Thursday night. Wilson routinely extends plays and throws incredibly accurate passes, as he leads the league with 17 passing TDs and a 115.5 passer rating.
However, completing 20-of-41 passes with a 65.2 passer rating in a 30-16 loss to the Ravens two weeks ago hurts his odds, while giving young Lamar Jackson (+600) a big boost.
Lamar Jackson (+600)
Beating the Seahawks in Seattle put Jackson firmly in the MVP discussion in his first full year as a starter. He’s rushed for 268 yards and two touchdowns over his last two games, but will likely have to do it with his arm with the disciplined Patriots defense coming to town on Sunday night. If Jackson can somehow lead his team past the Patriots, his odds should move up accordingly.
Deshaun Watson (+700)
While his offensive line continues to struggle despite improvements via trade and free agency, Watson continues to dazzle. The Clemson product has been boom-bust with a passer rating of 81.5 or lower in four starts (two losses) and tossing two picks in a key divisional defeat at Indianapolis in Week 7 hurts his chances.
But Watson rebounded with an incredible performance (27-for-39 passing, 3 TDs) to lead his team past the feisty Raiders and he’ll get a few shots at redemption with the Jaguars up next and a rematch with the Colts on tap for Week 12. Watson offers the most value of the four QBs with a great shot to win MVP if he can put together a strong second half.
Patrick Mahomes (+1000)
The reigning MVP started the season as the favorite and got off to a great start, but is obviously a longshot now that he’s sidelined with a knee injury. Even if Mahomes gets back on the field soon, it’s hard to imagine him making up for lost games enough to surpass the four QBs listed above.
Tom Brady (+1400)
It’s more about the name than the game for Brady, who is posting his worst completion percentage (64.7%) since 2014. The Patriots success is primarily due to their smothering defense, although Tom Terrific could come alive in the second half against tougher competition and put his name right back in the list of contenders.
Christian McCaffrey (+1600)
The highest non-QB on the list, McCaffrey took a big hit this week when his Panthers could get very little going against the elite 49ers defense. His position is simply too dependent on other factors to trust him on a team that might struggle to earn a Wild Card spot in the NFC.
Dalvin Cook (+2500)
While Kirk Cousins (+3300) has moved up the board after a big 4-week stretch, Cook has been more consistent throughout the season for Minnesota. He’s averaging 5.3 YPC with a league-high 823 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs, so he could sneak past McCaffrey if the Vikings wind up competing for the NFC North title.
Ezekiel Elliott (+15,000)
Your last RB with an outside chance to win the award, Elliott is a better bet than teammate Dak Prescott (+2000) given the huge gap in their odds. Prescott has routinely struggled against top-tier competition and is unlikely to post gaudy numbers in the Cowboys’ conservative system.
Elliott might lose votes because his offensive line is so strong, but he’s certainly being under valued after a slow start to the season. The Cowboys lost three straight and are currently on their bye week, but he could put that narrative to bed with a huge second half of the season.