The Houston Astros are back in the 2019 World Series after taking down the Washington Nationals with a 4-1 victory in Friday’s Game 3. Saturday’s Game 4 pins Astros RHP Jose Urquidy against Nationals LHP Patrick Corbin. Below, we make our Nationals vs. Astros Game 4 picks and predictions against the moneyline, spread (run line) and over/under. We’ll compare prices at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook. The Nationals are favored for the outright win for the first time in the series.
The Astros received 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball from No. 3 starter Zack Greinke with five relievers combining to shut it down for the final 4 1/3. All four of Houston’s runs came against Nationals starter Anibal Sanchez who went 5 1/3 frames. The Astros got two hits from each of their top three hitters in OF George Springer, 2B Jose Altuve and OF Michael Brantley, as well as C Robinson Chirinos. Chirinos hit the game’s only home run in the top of the sixth off of Sanchez.
Be sure to check out TheLines for a full breakdown of Saturday’s pitching matchup and notes on both teams.
Nationals vs. Astros moneyline
The Nationals are outright favorites for the first time as they look to take the commanding 3-1 series lead. As of Saturday morning, DraftKings priced a Washington victory at -118 while FanDuel had the home side at -112. The Astros are getting plus money at DraftKings with +104 odds as of this morning. FanDuel lists the visitors at -102. Unsurprisingly, the series line changed significantly with the Astros getting their first win. The Nationals were -286/-280 at DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively, heading into Game 3. They’re now a more conservative -118/-116.
Corbin gives Washington a serious advantage in the starting pitching matchup. The December 2018 free-agent addition pitched to a 3.25 ERA over 33 starts and 202 innings in the regular season. He struck out 238 batters against 70 walks while going 14-7. Corbin made his first appearance of the World Series in a scoreless inning of relief in Game 1 with two strikeouts.
Urquidy hasn’t pitched since going 2 2/3 innings in relief against the New York Yankees in the American League Championship Series on Oct. 19. He allowed three hits and a walk but just one earned run (a solo homer) with five strikeouts. The swingman made seven starts over the regular season and went four to seven innings in each of the last five. He’ll give way to a bullpen which has allowed five earned runs over 9 1/3 innings in the World Series.
The best time to bet the Astros’ series line will be after Game 4, following a Nationals victory which takes Houston to the brink of elimination at 3-1.
The Pick: Nationals -116 FanDuel Sportsbook
Nationals vs. Astros run line
Houston was able to cover the spread for the first time in the series with its 4-1 Game 3 victory. The Nationals have +180odds at FanDuel to cover the -1.5 spread as favorites in Game 4. The Nationals are 100-75 against the run line on the year but just 46-41 at Nationals Park. The Astros are 94-82 on the RL and 45-42 on the road.
Each of Corbin’s 14 regular-season victories came by at least a two-run margin, as did his lone postseason victory thus far. Washington is 14-3 in Corbin’s last 17 home starts, 6-0 in his last six at home against a team with a winning record and 4-0 in their last four during Game 4 of a series.
The Astros are the first of the two teams to face a left-handed starter in the series. They hit to an MLB-best .899 team OPS against lefties in the regular season, but they have hit just .543 over 132 team at-bats against southpaws in the postseason. Houston last faced a lefty starter in Game 5 of the ALC, losing 4-1 to the Yankees with New York starter James Paxton tossing six innings of one-run ball.
Nationals vs. Astros over/under
Saturday’s projected total of 8.5is the highest of the World Series thus far. The first three games went 2-1 against this number and 2-1 against the actual number in those games. The Over is 3-0-1 in Corbin’s last four games while the Under is 4-1 in Urquidy’s last five starts.
The Under is also 10-3 in Houston’s last 13 games against a left-handed starter. The Astros have favored the lower number in most trends of late while the Nationals have been playing the higher-scoring games. The Over is 4-1 in their last five games against a right-handed starter.
Take the Over in what’s expected to be the weakest starting pitching matchup of the series before each side can line up their top three for Games 5, 6 and 7 (if necessary).
The Pick: OVER 8.5 (-104 DraftKings Sportsbook)
World Series Game 4 best bet
Total Runs – Inning 1: OVER 1.5 (+215 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Game 3 was the first of the series to not feature any runs in the opening inning. The Astros would score a run in each of the next two frames. Houston scored two runs in the first inning of Game 1 and each side scored twice in the opening frame of Game 2.
In line with our pick for the Over, double down with both teams getting off to strong starts. I expect both sides to get on the board in the first inning in a game which will see plenty of both bullpens.