Sunday Night Football Picks And Predictions: Packers at Chiefs

Written By Esten McLaren on October 23, 2019

The Green Bay Packers (6-1) and Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) highlight the NFL’s Week 8 slate as the Sunday Night Football matchup. Kickoff at Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Below, our SNF betting preview looks at the best picks between the Packers and Chiefs for the moneyline, spread and over/under. We’ll compare the prices at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook in order to find the best value for each bet type. Suggestions for each betting play will be advised as either a “pick” or a “lean”.

Picks are actionable high-confidence plays made with a high degree of certainty based on the specific matchup. The odds at the time of publishing represent a profitable edge at the specified sportsbook. Leans often require bettors to monitor the lines in anticipation of a more rewarding number closer to kickoff. Roster movement, injuries and the betting action at the sportsbooks can cause lines to fluctuate throughout the week. This week’s game represents an excellent example of this, as Chiefs QB and reigning-MVP Patrick Mahomes is yet to be ruled out due to a knee injury suffered last Thursday night. As of Wednesday evening, Matt Moore is fully expected to start for Kansas City. He’ll be opposed by Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. What initially projected as a contender for the NFL’s game of the year, now looks like one of the most lopsided quarterback matchups of the season.

While researching for your Packers and Chiefs bets, be sure to check out my Sunday Night Football Preview at TheLines. It breaks down the statistical and betting trends of both teams and highlights the key on-field matchups.

Packers at Chiefs picks: Moneyline

The Chiefs were able to comfortably cruise to a 30-6 victory over the AFC West rival Denver Broncos last week despite losing Mahomes. Moore was fine in relief, going 10-for-19 for 117 yards with one long catch-and-run touchdown to WR Tyreek Hill. Expect the Chiefs and head coach Andy Reid to simplify things as much as possible. Look for plenty of short, quick passes getting the ball in the hands of Hill and TE Travis Kelce. Moore will try to lean on RBs Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy as they go up against a Packers rush defense allowing 128.9 yards per game.

Rodgers is coming off his most impressive game of the season. He completed 25 of 31 passes for 429 yards and five touchdowns while adding a score on the ground in a 42-24 home victory over the Oakland Raiders. He has completed 64.8% of his passes on the season for 2,019 yards and 13 touchdowns against just two interceptions. The Packers have twice won three games in a row this season. Their last two victories were both at Lambeau Field, but they’re 2-0 straight up as visitors this year. The Chiefs lost each of their last two home games by a combined count of 50-37. They’re 1-2 at home on the year, having beaten the Baltimore Ravens 33-28 in Week 3.

The Packers (99.3) and Chiefs (82.3) are two of 13 teams in the NFL averaging fewer than 100 team rushing yards per game. They rank eighth and first, respectively, in passing yards per game. They rank 10th and third, respectively, in points scored per game. Green Bay allows 19.9 PPG to Kansas City’s 21.4 PPG against. The Chiefs don’t have a strong enough ground game to force the Packers’ defensive attention off of Moore. Rodgers will be able to pick apart the Chiefs’ lackluster pass defense, even if Davante Adams (toe) is unable to return from a three-game absence.

The Pick: Packers -174 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Packers at Chiefs picks: Against the spread

The Packers are 5-2 against the spread in all situations this year. They’re 2-0 ATS as the visitors, 2-0 ATS against the AFC and 3-2 ATS as favorites. The Chiefs are 4-3 ATS overall. They’re 1-2 ATS as hosts, 0-1 ATS against the NFC (a 34-30 win over the Detroit Lions in Week 4) and will be underdogs for the first time all season.

The game opened as a pick’em, but the Packers are favored by 3points at DraftKings and 4points at FanDuel as of Wednesday evening. Mahomes’ injury is the biggest factor and the gap is likely to grow once he’s officially ruled inactive. It will be best to act quickly on this one.

The Pick: Packers -4 (+100 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Packers at Chiefs picks: Over/Under

The projected total is 47.5points at FanDuel and an even 48at DraftKings. Either number is the highest of the year for Green Bay but the lowest of the season for Kansas City. The Packers are 4-3 against the Over/Under and top the projection by an average of 0.5 points. The Chiefs are 4-3 against the O/U but fall an average of 2.4 points shy of the number.

The Chiefs scored 20 points after Mahomes left the game last week; however, they scored just one offensive touchdown with Moore at the helm. They had a defensive score and two field goals. The first of those field goals finished off the drive which ended Mahomes’ night. He had guided his team to Denver’s five-yard line, and they went 3-and-out after Moore entered the game.

The Packers will need to provide the bulk of the scoring. I’m leaning to the Under, but I’d become interested in the Over if the public money drops the projection to 42-44 points once Mahomes is inevitably ruled out.

The Lean: UNDER 47.5 (+100 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Sunday Night Football best bet

1st Quarter Spread: Green Bay Packers -0.5 (+104 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Getting plus money is tremendous value. The Chiefs will keep things as simple as possible for Moore and they’ll look to control the clock with the run game, slowing things down in order to limit the Packers’ possessions. Kansas City can strike quickly without Moore having to do much with Hill and Kelce at his disposal, but Green Bay will likely need just one score in order to take a lead after the opening 15 minutes.

The Packers led 14-0 after one quarter on the road against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5. Their touchdown against the Chicago Bears in the season opener came in the first minute of the second quarter.

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Esten McLaren

Esten grew up on a golf course and made the switch from real-life trunk slammer to the daily fantasy realm as soon as the game was launched. He's been betting golf regularly for the better part of the last 10 years, most memorably winning big on Rory McIlroy's 2014 Open title, but a trip to Carnoustie for the 2018 Open and a walk around St. Andrews share the honor for best golf highlight. He has written about all major sports at FNTSY Sports Network, theScore, and SportsBookWire.

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