The Indianapolis Colts (2-2) are the next contender for the Kansas City Chiefs (4-0). The Week 5 Sunday Night Football matchup is a rematch of last year’s AFC Divisional Round game. The Chiefs prevailed 31-13 at Arrowhead Stadium. The Sunday Night Football betting breakdown will look at the best picks for the moneyline, spread and Over/Under at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook. Actionable advice for each bet type will be given as either a “pick” or a “lean”. Picks are advised with a high amount of confidence based on the specific matchup and the current odds at the sportsbooks. Leans are reserved for when there’s more variance in play which may cause the line(s) to shift toward a more (or less) appealing number.
Be sure to check out TheLines and the Sunday Night Football Preview each week as a companion article before finalizing your bets. A detailed game breakdown is provided for each Sunday Night Football matchup with a look at the opening odds, on-field matchup and seasonal betting trends for the two teams meeting in primetime.
It’s important to not get swept up in the hype surrounding primetime football games and SNF, in particular. We’re searching for value and shopping around the different books looking for the best edge when making our picks. On occasion, we’ll avoid a bet completely when the line seems too close to call. The only thing different about SNF compared to any of the numerous games on the 1:00 p.m. ET slate is the start time and the television channel. Here are the best picks for Week 5’s Colts at Chiefs matchup.
Colts at Chiefs picks: Moneyline
Colts QB Jacoby Brissett has been fantastic to start the year since sliding in from his backup role to replace the recently-retired Andrew Luck. The fourth-year pro has completed 65.2% of his passes for 911 yards while throwing 10 touchdowns against just two interceptions. Even without No. 1 wide receiver T.Y. Hilton last week, Brissett threw for three touchdowns and 265 yards with just one pick in a disappointing 31-24 home loss to the Oakland Raiders.
As good as Brissett has been, he and the Colts remain huge underdogs against the Chiefs and reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes. The second-year starter has 10 touchdowns without an interception to start the year while completing 75.8% of his passes. He has been without star WR Tyreek Hill each of the past three games but has turned Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman into reliable threats. TE Travis Kelce and WR Sammy Watkins lead the team in receiving yards, but Robinson shares the team lead with three receiving touchdowns. Hardman has 167 yards through four games to start his NFL career.
Hill returned to practice Wednesday but remains questionable for Sunday. His potential activation would only further shift a moneyline already favoring the Chiefs at -550 at FanDuel. We’ll stay away in search of better value with a $10 wager paying a profit of just $1.82.
The Pick: We’re avoiding this one.
Colts at Chiefs picks: Against the spread
The spread is the best place to look when making a wager whenever the moneyline is so heavily lopsided. The sportsbooks aren’t ready to show respect to Brissett, and they’re right not to as he goes up against the juggernaut Chiefs. Kansas City is being spotted -10.5 points at DraftKings and -11 at FanDuel. The Chiefs are 2-2 against the number through four games, with each of their last two victories coming within five points. The Colts haven’t lost by more than seven points this year and their season-opening defeat came by a 30-24 score in overtime against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Kansas City is 3-1 against the spread on the year, winning by an average of 10.2 points per game and covering the spread by an average of 4.6 points. Indianapolis is 2-1-1 ATS, losing by an average of two and failing to cover by an average of 1.4 points. The Chiefs are somewhat surprisingly just 6-5 ATS at home under Mahomes since the start of last season. Still, they’ve won by an average of 12 points and covered by an average of five.
The Chiefs share the league lead with 33.8 points scored per game with the Colts scoring 23.8 per outing. Kansas City has a slight edge on defense, holding opponents to 23.5 PPG while Indianapolis has allowed an average of 25.5. Lean to the home side with Hill’s availability turning it into a strong pick.
The Lean: Chiefs -10.5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Colts at Chiefs picks: Over/under
The projected total has stayed steady since an opening-day increase from 55.5 to 57. As noted above, the two sides combine to score 57.6 points on average, but last year’s playoff meeting had them combined for just 46 total points. That was with Luck still at the helm of a more dangerous Colts attack.
Both sides are 3-1 against the Over/Under this year. K.C. has topped the projections by an average of five points with Indy topping the number by 3.5. The draw of Sunday Night Football has this week’s projection the highest of the season for either side. The Colts are 0-4 against this number while the Chiefs are 3-1.
Kansas City is generally the team dictating the pace of play. The Chiefs and Colts rank second and fifth, respectively, by points scored per drive through four games. Get the Over on a number likely to keep rising up until game time. Bettors will want to get a piece of Mahomes’ first primetime appearance of the season.
The Pick: OVER 57 (+100 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Sunday Night Football best bet
First Half Total: UNDER 29 (-120 FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel has more than half of the projected points being scored in the first half. With the Chiefs expected to win big, this suggests the bulk of the Colts’ points will come during the second half. Kansas City will get up to a sizable, early lead but will struggle to reach this first-half number on its own.
Take the first-half Under and pair it with the 4th Quarter OVER (14, -106). This will account for Indianapolis’ late scoring drives in what’s expected to be a multi-score victory for the Chiefs.