The 2019-20 Sanderson Farms Championship will be played as a stand-alone PGA Tour event carrying a full 500 FedExCup points for the first time in the tournament’s history. Most recently played as an alternate-field event in conjunction with the WGC-HSBC Champions in late October or mid-November, it has been moved up to be the second event on this year’s schedule. We nailed Joaquin Niemann‘s season-opening victory at The Greenbrier last week at +2200 and now look at our betting picks for the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Still early in the PGA Tour season, we have another thin field this week. Brandt Snedeker at No. 41 in the Official World Golf Ranking is the top golfer in attendance. Just three others from the top 50 are listed in the field as of Tuesday afternoon. Cameron Champ, the defending champ, returns as one of four previous winners at Country Club of Jackson scheduled to tee off Thursday morning. This week’s tournament is going up against the European Tour‘s BMW PGA Championship which features four of the top-10 golfers in the world, including No. 2 Rory McIlroy.
The course: Country Club of Jackson
Country Club of Jackson hosts the Sanderson Farms Championship for the sixth straight year. Champ’s finishing score of minus-21 last season was the lowest aggregate score in the five years. Nick Taylor‘s 16-under par in the tournament’s fall of 2014 debut at CC of Jackson was the highest of the five course champions to date.
The course plays as a par 72 measuring 7,421 yards. Two of four par 3s exceed 200 yards. The four par 5s range from 554 to 612 yards and the par 4s vary from a drivable 330 yards to a long of 505 for the finishing 18th hole. Seven holes had scoring averages above par last season. Scoring on the par 5s is mandatory, as all four had scoring averages below par last October.
Key stats to consider for the Sanderson Farms Championship
The key stats most strongly associated with success at Country Club of Jackson, according to historical data from Fantasy National, are Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, Opportunities Gained, Proximity from 150-175 Yards and Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards. Strokes Gained: Putting should also be taken into consideration, according to trends from Data Golf.
My model looks at the most recent 24 rounds for each golfer in the field. Recent success and results on the Korn Ferry Tour are also important. Much of the field is comprised of recent graduates of the secondary tour.
Sanderson Farms betting picks: Sleepers and value bets
McCarthy gained 2.52 strokes putting per round last year en route to a T7 finish. First-place finisher Champ ranked second at 2.27 strokes gained on the greens per round. McCarthy comes into this year’s event ranked second in the field in SG: Putting, trailing only Sungjae Im (+1400). The 26-year-old doesn’t have a professional win since the 2018 Web.com Tour Championship; when he beat runner-up Lucas Glover by four strokes.
He is coming off a T31 finish at The Greenbrier last week. His 2018-19 season ended with a missed cut at The Northern Trust in the first event of the FEC Playoffs. He had made the cut in five of six previous non-elimination events. McCarthy ranked second in the field behind Niemann in SG: Putting last week and comes in hot.
Streelman has missed three straight cuts dating back to the end of last season, missing on the number last week. He missed the cut in last year’s event, but he was T10 the year before and T18 in 2017. He’s fifth overall in my stat model, ranking second in SG: Approach and sixth in Opportunities Gained. At 104th in the OWGR he’s the 17th highest-ranked golfer in attendance this week but he’s 32nd by the odds at DraftKings and T24 at FanDuel. This large of a discrepancy is always a great place to find value in potential longshots.
Shelton finished T7 last week and gained a total of 2.40 strokes per round, including 1.13 putting. He hasn’t played here since a T70 finish in 2017, but he now has his tour card for the first time after two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour last May. He’s 23rd in the stat model with a top rank of eighth in Opportunities Gained. He has the ability to go low here after racing out to the first-round lead last week. He made the cut in five of eight PGA Tour events in 2017 with a top finish of 16th in a much stronger field than this week at the Valero Texas Open in April.
Sanderson Farms betting picks: Our winner
Taylor (pictured) will play in his first event since being eliminated from the FEC Playoffs with a T16 finish at the BMW Championship. The three-time PGA Tour winner was last victorious at the 2016 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, toppling Phil Mickelson by a stroke. He made 20 of 27 cuts last season, including his final 10 events of the year and collected four top 10s from January to July.
He finished T26 here last season, following a T10 in 2018. While he sat out the 2017 event, he collected back-to-back T20s in 2015 and 2016. Taylor ranks second in the stat model behind Niemann (+1200). He ranks in the top seven of SG: Approach, Opportunities Gained, and Proximity.
2019-20 PGA Tour Winners
- Joaquin Niemann – A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier (+2200)