Our weekly column at PlayPicks looks at the best Sunday Night Football picks and bets. We’re onto the Week 2 matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) and Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. As always, the game can be seen live on NBC beginning at 8:20 p.m. ET. Everything you need to know about this week’s matchup (and SNF, in general) can be found on TheLines, including a full breakdown of this week’s odds, historical betting trends for both teams involved and how the 2019 versions of each side stack up against each other.
Here, we focus on winning some actual money as we look at the odds for the moneyline, spread and over/under. We’ll also browse through the most interesting prop bets available at the sportsbooks and make a bonus pick in hopes of earning a little extra dough. Each bet will be advised based on either a “lean” or a “pick.” The former is a softer play for a smaller investment and/or requires bettors to wait until a little closer until game time in hopes of getting greater odds at the books. The latter is a play which can be made right away at the current number with a high amount of confidence. Occasionally, picks will be for only the number mentioned, with any significant deviation from the listed odds resulting in a pass.
Sunday Night Football picks: Moneyline
The Eagles avoided disaster in Week 1 by storming back from a 20-7 halftime deficit against the NFC East-rival Washington Redskins to salvage a 32-27 home victory. The Falcons fell behind 21-0 by the half on the road against the Minnesota Vikings with a blocked punt and a Devonta Freeman fumble in their own territory adding to a plethora of issues on either side of the ball. They’d score 12 fourth-quarter points in a 28-12 defeat which made the day look better than it truly was.
The Falcons went just 3-6 straight up after a loss and 4-4 overall at home last season. The Eagles were 4-6 following victories and 4-5 as the visitors. Philadelphia won 18-12 when the two sides met in the 2018 season opener at Lincoln Financial Field, though it was QB Nick Foles under center for the Eagles in place a then-injured Carson Wentz.
Atlanta opened as the favorite at home but the line quickly shifted in favor of the visitors. Take the Falcons at +107 at DraftKings Sportsbook with the Eagles not doing near enough last week to earn the trust of bettors when on the road.
Sunday Night Football picks: Against the spread
The opening line of ATL -1.5 quickly flipped to list the hosts at +1.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook. DraftKings and 888 Sport both list the spread at +2. Expect the line to continue to shift toward the Eagles throughout the week leading up to the Sunday Night primetime television spot. The Super Bowl LII champs are the public favorites and have been drawing in 60% of bets.
Neither side covered the spread in its season opener last week. The Falcons were one of the league’s worst ATS teams in 2018 at 5-11, falling an average of two points short of the cover. The Eagles went 9-9 against the number (including the postseason), covering by an average of just 0.1 points.
The line is little better than a pick’em. Play the Falcons’ moneyline as the best bet rather than laying the -110 against the spread. This bet is a stay away for me right now. I’m leaning toward the home side; however, in anticipation of getting a few more points by Sunday evening. The Falcons will be a high-confidence play if the Eagles are spotted a field goal or more.
Sunday Night Football picks: Over/under
The total opened at 51. It has dropped a half-point to 50.5 at FanDuel but remains at the opening line at DraftKings, SugarHouse and 888 Sport. Both the OVER and UNDER pay out at an equal -110 at all four books.
The OVER is the current pick. It will be best to get those bets in early in the week with the SNF draw likely to pull in public money on the higher number. The Eagles and Redskins topped their projected total in Week 1 by 15 total points. The Redskins vastly outperformed their individual team total as the Philadelphia defense was awful in its season debut. The Falcons played to the over in five of eight home games last season, outscoring the projections by an average of 6.4 points as the fourth-highest difference in the NFL.
Sunday Night Football picks: Best prop
Moneyline/Total Points Parlay: Atlanta Falcons to win & Over (50.5) points (+270 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Get our two highest-confidence picks in a same-game parlay paying nearly 3-1. Five of the Falcons’ seven wins last season finished with point totals above 50, with three of those coming at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Three of the Eagles’ seven losses involved totals north of 50 combined points. All three of those defeats came with Philadelphia acting as the road team.