Yankees Red Sox Betting Picks

Welcome to the Sunday, August 4 edition of the MLB Best Bets column. Here, I’ll strive to identify one MLB bet for tonight I feel has profit potential at DraftKings SportsbookFanDuel Sportsbook888 Sportsbook, and BetStars Sportsbook.

Depending on the circumstance, I’ll hone in on moneylines, point spreads, or projected totals. Sometimes I may even touch on multiple metrics. Then, I’ll take you on a fairly deep dive as to why.

Please note we’ll be referencing only legal, regulated sportsbook betting odds and totals here at PlayPicks. A “pick” is a wager that, as of the time of this writing, we feel confident recommending. A “lean” is a wager we favor over the other side. This play could end up on our card with the release of additional information.

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8/4/19 MLB Betting Pick:

Boston Red Sox (59-54) vs. New York Yankees (71-39), 7:05pm EDT

The Breakdown

Two grizzled veteran southpaws take the hill in the finale of a four-game series between the Red Sox and Yankees on Sunday night. David Price will toe the rubber for Boston, while J.A. Happ gets the call for the Yankees. While Price’s overall numbers this season are markedly better in several areas compared to Happ’s, this matchup has traditionally favored the latter by a wide margin.

Naturally, both pitchers have plenty of history against the opponent. Price’s against the Yankees has by and large been a bleak one. Now it’s worth noting right from the start that there is one recent exception, and it came this season. Price allowed just two earned runs on six hits and a walk over 6.1 innings at Yankee Stadium on June 2. But that performance was an outlier.

Between the 2016 and 2018 seasons, Price posted a 2-7 record, 7.71 ERA and .335 BAA over 11 starts versus New York. Narrowing the scope to Yankee Stadium during that time, the picture is even uglier. Price sported an 0-6 mark, 9.79 ERA and a .380 BAA over his six turns there. Unsurprisingly, current New York bats own a collective .295/.351/.509 line against Price that includes 41 extra-base hits (17 doubles, four triples, 20 homers) over 397 career at-bats. And the Yankees haven’t exactly been kind to lefties overall, either. New York came into Saturday’s action with a .286 average, .374 wOBA, .252 ISO and MLB-high 15.5 wRAA against southpaws over the last month of play (325 plate appearances).

In turn, Happ has an extended track record of frustrating the Red Sox. Current Boston bats own a middling .214/.277/.399 line against Happ across 323 career at-bats. That sample includes 69 strikeouts, with most of the Red Sox’s most potent hitters faltering against Happ more often than not. Andrew Benintendi (.105 BAA), Mookie Betts (.179 BAA), Xander Bogaerts (.167 BAA) and J.D. Martinez (.208 BAA) have a combined 24 whiffs against Happ in 118 at-bats.

Happ does admittedly have poorer numbers at home this season (5.64 ERA, .305 BAA). However, he’s been much better recently, allowing three earned runs or less in three straight turns at Yankee Stadium. And he’s historically been very effective at the Stadium, even when he was a member of the Blue Jays. For reference, consider he sported a 7-0 record, 2.70 ERA and .207 BAA over 10 starts there from 2016-2018. Finally, the Red Sox haven’t been very effective against lefties on the road lately. Boston has a .226 average, .295 wOBA and -3.9 wRAA versus southpaws when traveling over the last month (196 plate appearances).

By the Numbers: The Yankees are 42-18 (70.0 percent) as a home team this season, including 5-3 (62.5 percent) as home underdogs.

The Final Word

His most recent outing against them notwithstanding, Price has regularly been a victim of the Yankees bats. His track record at Yankee Stadium over the last three seasons, the better price on New York and the Red Sox’s traditional ineptitude versus Happ all put me in the direction of the Yankees moneyline.

The Pick: Yankees moneyline