Wyndham Championship Betting Preview: Sleepers, Values, And Our Pick To Win

Posted By Esten McLaren on July 29, 2019 - Last Updated on February 19, 2020

This week’s Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina caps the Wyndham Rewards Top 10 schedule. It is the final event before the FedExCup Playoffs begin next week with the Northern Trust in Jersey City.

Brooks Koepka, the No. 1 golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking, secured the $2-million first-place prize with his victory at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational last week. The top three finishers in the Wyndham Reward Top 10 (Koepka, Rory McIlroyMatt Kuchar) are all taking the week off with their bonus checks locked down. Paul Casey, who’s eighth in the Wyndham Rewards standings, is the lone player from the top 10 listed in the field. Here, we look at the best Wyndham Championship betting picks with world No. 17 Webb Simpson (+900) the top-ranked golfer in the field.

In all, 11 of the top 50 golfers in the OWGR are expected to tee off Thursday, including 2018 champion Brandt SnedekerOpen Championship winner Shane Lowry withdrew for the second consecutive week following his first career Major title. Last week’s Barracuda Championship winner, Collin Morikawa, will participate and continues to be listed among the favorites (+1600) early on his PGA Tour career.

The course: Sedgefield Country Club

Designed by Donald Ross in 1926, Sedgefield CC is a par-70 course measuring 7,127 yards. It was one of the original hosts of a North Carolina Tour stop through 1976. The event then returned to Sedgefield in 2008 and has been played under the Wyndham Championship title since 2007, when first played at Forest Oaks Country Club.

Eight of the 12 par 4s are between 400 and 450 yards in length. Two top 500 yards, and the other is a modest 374. The four par 3s are split up with two topping 200 yards and two playing below. Scoring on just two par 5s of 529 and 545 yards is of utmost importance.

Thick tree lines guard both sides of most skinny fairways. The Bermuda grass greens follow the classic Donald Ross style of playing above the fairways. The only water truly in play is on the par-5 15th with a sizable pond located short right of the putting surface.

Key stats to consider for the 2019 Wyndham Championship

Based on the course design and historical data from Fantasy National over the past five years, the key stats for the week are Opportunities GainedStrokes Gained: Tee-to-GreenStrokes Gained: ApproachProximity from 150-175 YardsPar 4 Efficiency: 400-450 Yards and Par 5s Gained. The top eight in the 2018 field in SG: Tee-to-Green each finished inside the top 20, according to Data Golf.

Five of the past 11 and each of the last three champions at Sedgefield have finished with scores of 20-under par or lower. Henrik Stenson‘s aggregate score of 258 (minus-22) in 2017 stands as the tournament four-round record.

My model is set to the most recent 24 rounds on courses with Bermuda greens.

2019 Wyndham Championship betting picks: Sleepers and value bets

Byeong Hun An +8000 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

An makes his third appearance at Sedgefield with a T18 in 2015 and a missed cut in 2017 on his record. The 27-year-old made the cut in five of his past six events with three top 20s. He has two top 10s on the season at quality events in the Valero Texas Open and Arnold Palmer Invitational. He finished T16 at the US Open following a missed cut at the PGA Championship and was 32nd at The Open with a finishing score of plus-1. Ranked 55th in the OWGR, he’s the 13th-best golfer in the field, but 34 players have lower odds at DraftKings and 16 at FanDuel.

The former US Amateur champion is a two-time runner-up on the PGA Tour, but he has wins in Europe, Korea, and on the Challenge Tour. He’s second in this week’s field in SG: Tee-to-Green and seventh in SG: Approach. He was T13 at the Ross-designed Detroit Golf Club in the Rocket Mortgage Classic six weeks ago.

Russell Knox +9000 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Knox, ranked 74th in the OWGR, has made 17 of 20 cuts this year. He has two top 10s, most recently finishing eighth at the Charles Schwab Challenge in May. He finished 41st at The Open after firing a 77 in the Sunday conditions, which claimed many victims. The Scotsman wasn’t invited to the Masters and missed the cut at the PGA Championship the week before his run at the Charles Schwab.

The 34-year-old leads the week’s stat model with top-10 field ranks in all but one of the six key stats. He’s 13th in Par 4 Efficiency and second in Opportunities Gained. He was T28 at Sedgefield in 2017, previously missing the cut in 2015. Putting has cost him this season, but he gained strokes with the flatstick in each of three North American events leading up to The Open.

Corey Conners +20000 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Canadian rebounded for a finish of 27th at last week’s WGC event. It snapped a skid of three missed cuts in four events, including The Open Championship. He doesn’t have a top-10 or top-20 finish since his victory at TPC San Antonio in early April, but it’s promising to see him finish relatively well in a stacked field last week.

Conners is second in the stat model and leads the field in both SG: Approach and Opportunities Gained. He finished T45 in his first appearance at Sedgefield last year. He again struggled with his putter last week, but he should compete in a much weaker field with even an average performance.

2019 Wyndham Championship betting picks: Our winner

Rory Sabbatini +4000 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Sabbatini is one of the biggest risers in the OWGR this season. He has climbed from 200 at the end of 2018 to enter the week at No. 80. Born in South Africa but hailing from Slovakia, the 43-year-old has five top 10s on the season, with a recent third-place finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic representing his best of the year. He finished 16th at The Open at a steady 2-under after missing out on the first two Majors of the year. (He was 43rd at the US Open).

As we saw last week with Koepka and Morikawa’s victories, it’s a good time of the season to just load up on the favorites early in the week, but Sabbatini offers better value to those looking for greater returns. He’s 11th in the stat model with three top-10 ranks, including third in SG: Tee-to-Green.

Esten McLaren Avatar
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Esten McLaren

Esten grew up on a golf course and made the switch from real-life trunk slammer to the daily fantasy realm as soon as the game was launched. He's been betting golf regularly for the better part of the last 10 years, most memorably winning big on Rory McIlroy's 2014 Open title, but a trip to Carnoustie for the 2018 Open and a walk around St. Andrews share the honor for best golf highlight. He has written about all major sports at FNTSY Sports Network, theScore, and SportsBookWire.

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