Welcome to the Sunday, July 28 edition of the MLB Best Bets column. Here, I’ll strive to identify one MLB bet for tonight I feel has profit potential at DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, 888 Sportsbook, and FoxBet Sportsbook.
Depending on the circumstance, I’ll hone in on moneylines, point spreads, or projected totals. Sometimes I may even touch on multiple metrics. Then, I’ll take you on a fairly deep dive as to why.
Please note we’ll be referencing only legal, regulated sportsbook betting odds and totals here at PlayPicks. A “pick” is a wager that, as of the time of this writing, we feel confident recommending. A “lean” is a wager we favor over the other side. This play could end up on our card with the release of additional information.
7/28/19 MLB Betting Pick:
Boston Red Sox (59-47) vs. New York Yankees (66-38)
The Red Sox have pounded the Yankees with a plus 38-13 run differential so far this series. As a result, they’re now huge favorites (-190 on FanDuel Sportsbook) in the series finale with a clear-cut advantage in the pitching matchup.
The Yanks pitching staff has been a mess since the ASB, yielding a league-high 26 homers with a league-worst 7.96 ERA. The Yankees have also coughed up a franchise-high 64 runs over their last six outings.
Now the Yankees offense will try to pick up the slack against Chris Sale, who has regained his swing-and-miss stuff with 22 Ks over his last two starts. Sale has given up 4 ER in both of his meetings with the Yanks this season (both at Yankee Stadium).
Sale has been unlucky to post a 4.26 ERA at Fenway Park this season considering he owns a 15.0 K/9 ratio and 2.49 xFIP at home. His .357 BABIP indicates the potential for positive regression and his job is made easier with Yankees leadoff man DJ LeMahieu (groin) questionable.
The Yankees are posting an above average 24.3% K-Rate and a below-average .320 wOBA against LHP this year.
Despite getting to Sale earlier this season, the Yankees have poor collective splits against the lefty ace. Aaron Hicks (9-for-27) has given him some trouble, but also has 10 Ks against Sale. Aaron Judge (4-for-20, 13 Ks) has been an easy out.
Sale is rocking a 37% K-Rate and holding RHB to a .215 BAA this year. His Achilles Heel has been the long ball (20.9% HR/FB ratio) when facing RHB, but that ratio has been slightly lower (16.7%) in home starts.
The Red Sox lead the majors with 169 runs scored and a collective .378 wOBA over the last 30 days. Boston is only second to the Rockies in batting average (.284) when playing at home. The Red Sox have scored eight or more runs in six straight meetings with the Yankees.
New York will try to slow down Boston’s red-hot offense with talented young RHP Domingo German. After posting great numbers in April and May, German missed over a month with an elbow issue. He seemed fully recovered with three consecutive quality starts in July, but was roughed up by the Twins elite offense for 8 ER on Tuesday.
German gave up 6 ER over 3.2 IP in a previous start against Boston. Xander Bogaerts helped chase him early with a HR in the fourth inning. Bogaerts is heating up, while Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are catching fire for Boston.
Andrew Benintendi and Brock Holt have both found success in a very small sample against German, who has shown equal vulnerability against LHB and RHB.
German opened the season with a 9-1 record that belies his actual performance. He owns a rough 5.66 ERA and 5.69 FIP with a 2.37 HR/9 ratio on the road this year. If he falters early against this surging Red Sox lineup, we could see another lopsided result.
The Final Word
While the Over has hit in all three games to open this series thanks to Boston’s offensive eruption, we’re leaning towards the Under (10 runs on FanDuel Sportsbook) in Sunday’s finale.
Sale is capable of posting a dominant line with 10+ strikeouts and 2 ER or fewer allowed, while German has shown flashes of dominance with a 14.1% swinging strike rate over three years in the majors.
Our stronger bet is the Red Sox on the Run Line (-1.5 at +108 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook) since the odds are rather poor when taking them on the Moneyline.
Boston has jumped ahead early and coasted in all three games to open this series, so there’s no real reason to sweat a potential one-run finish. The Red Sox have a ton of momentum and their ace is starting, giving them a great chance to complete the sweep and move within 7 games of the A.L. East leaders.
The Lean: Under
The Pick: Red Sox Run Line