Welcome to the Saturday, July 27 edition of the MLB Best Bets column. Here, I’ll strive to identify one MLB bet for tonight I feel has profit potential at DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, 888 Sportsbook, and FoxBet Sportsbook.
Depending on the circumstance, I’ll hone in on moneylines, point spreads, or projected totals. Sometimes I may even touch on multiple metrics. Then, I’ll take you on a fairly deep dive as to why.
Please note we’ll be referencing only legal, regulated sportsbook betting odds and totals here at PlayPicks. A “pick” is a wager that, as of the time of this writing, we feel confident recommending. A “lean” is a wager we favor over the other side. This play could end up on our card with the release of additional information.
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7/27/19 MLB Betting Pick:
Boston Red Sox (58-47) vs. New York Yankees (66-37)
- DraftKings Sportsbook Total Runs Odds: Over 12 (-112)/ Under 12 (-109)
- FanDuel Sportsbook Total Runs Odds: Over 11.5 (-116)/ Under 11.5 (-104)
- 888 Sportsbook Total Runs Odds: Over 12 (-112)/ Under 12 (-109)
The Breakdown
The Red Sox have seemingly taken out a season’s worth of frustration out on the Yankees over the first two games of the current four-game set. Boston entered the series against New York with an ugly 1-6 record against the Bronx Bombers this season. The Yankees had scored 37 runs in the previous three games between the division rivals. However, after scoring a combined 29 runs over the previous two nights, Boston has gone a long way toward evening matters out.
The Red Sox managed a good chunk of that offensive haul against two quality starters in Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton. Saturday, they’ll get a crack at a potentially more suspect arm in CC Sabathia. The veteran lefty has had plenty of trouble on the road this season. Sabathia has a 6.59 ERA, .299 BAA and .414 wOBA across 41 away frames. Several of his other metrics are markedly worse outside of Yankee Stadium as well. That includes his xFIP (5.42), HR/9 (3.29) and hard-contact rate allowed (44.0 percent). The red-hot Mookie Betts has also given Sabathia plenty of trouble in the past, as evidenced by a career .364/.450/.455 line over 40 career plate appearances.
The Yankees bullpen has also put in a hefty workload over the first two games of the series. New York relievers have been called on for 8.2 innings over that span. And that was coming off a week when they’d logged the most innings in the majors (39.2). Some weariness has apparently set in with their arms, and with some steamy conditions on tap Saturday afternoon (50 percent-plus humidity), they could certainly facilitate more offense.
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On the other side, the Red Sox trot out their own inconsistent lefty in Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez has a respectable 3.84 ERA and an impressive .279 wOBA allowed over 61 home innings. And he comes in hot, going 6-0 over his last eight turns. But Rodriguez had had his share of issues in the past with current New York hitters. Yankees bats own a collective .264/.355/.488 line over 201 career at-bats. Those numbers are partly comprised of 22 extra-base hits (11 doubles, one triple, one home run). Didi Gregorius (.314 BAA), Gleyber Torres (.375 BAA) and Luke Voit (.500 BAA) are three that have especially given him trouble.
Finally, consider the two teams’ track record thus far in the second half against left-handed pitching. The Yankees came into Friday night’s game with a .295 average and .387 wOBA versus southpaws since play resumed after the All-Star break. The Red Sox had a .331 wOBA against lefties over the same period.
By the Numbers: The Over is 56-43-4 (56.5 percent) in the Yankees’ games this season. That includes a 32-12-2 mark (MLB-high 72.7 percent) in their away games. Then, the Over is 61-41-3 (59.8 percent) in the Red Sox’s games this season. That includes a 29-20 tally (59.2 percent) in their home contests.
The Final Word
These two teams seem to be a lock for a double-digit run total every time they get together lately. Saturday’s projected total has now been exceeded in four straight Yankees-Red Sox tilts. With hotter afternoon temperatures and plenty of history between the two starters and the bats they’re facing — not to mention a fatigued Yankees ‘pen in particular — I’m looking at the Over hitting again.
The Pick: Over 11.5 runs
