As a brief intermission from the California Swing, The next stop on TOUR is TPC Scottsdale in Arizona before we head back for the Genesis at Riviera next week. As an aside, I will be in Scottsdale not once, but twice next month for two separate bachelor parties, so if you’ve got any recommendations, please hit me up!
The field at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week was one of the weakest we’ll see all season, so it’s refreshing to see the heavyweights back in the mix here, with six OWGR top-10 players teeing it up this week.
As always, DraftKings Sportsbook has you covered whether you’re focusing on Daily Fantasy or exploring the many betting markets available. Though if you are betting, plenty of sportsbooks offer will have odds on this event so you can shop around.
While TPC Scottsdale has routinely bred winners under 30-1 odds, the top-heavy field means we are going to see a lot of value at the bottom of the board. With fairly soft pricing on DraftKings, I think a stars and scrubs build is viable, which means it’s going to be crucial to land on the right salary-savers in DFS.
Here’s a look at our 2022 WM Phoenix Open longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups and betting cards.
2022 WM PHOENIX OPEN PICKS | DFS VALUE PLAYS & BETTING LONGSHOTS
We almost made it back-to-back winners out of this article after Joel Dahmen carried a share of the lead into the back nine on Sunday. He faded into oblivion after that point, however, but I’m not complaining about the Tom Hoge victory.
This week, I think there are plenty of opportunities to find value. Particularly in good ball strikers who have struggled on the greens, or players who’ve looked shaky on the west coast swing so far in 2022. Desert golf conditions are very different, so course history and comp course history at similar TPC layouts and desert courses should help identify some unheralded sleepers.
I’m looking at the below value players primarily for DFS purposes, but also think there is merit in taking some flyer bets on these guys at online sportsbooks, as the top-heavy players in this field have pushed some strong players down the odds board. As always, we’ll be using Draft Kings DFS pricing and betting odds as the basis of our picks. Let’s get into it!
*Betting odds & DFS pricing from Draft Kings are subject to change after writing.
Abraham Ancer (, $7,900)
Not exactly a “bomb” this week, but Ancer does find a seven next to his price on Draft Kings, and I was able to jump on a 66/1 outright on Monday, which at least teeters on the edge of bomb territory.
Ancer has the game for desert golf, hitting a low, straight ball off the tee that can really roll out in these firm conditions to catch some sneaky length while avoiding neighboring water and other natural desert hazards. He’s got some solid desert history as well with two T5s apiece at The AmEx and The Shriners.
I’m happy to buy low here on a player who won in a loaded WGC-FedEx field just ten starts ago, and who still has four T10s under his belt over that span. He’s been slow out the gates in 2022, but seems to be kicking the rust off now with back-to-back positive ball-striking weeks. He’s a good long-term putter and ranks 5th in this field SG: P on Fast greens over the last 36 rounds, suggesting he’s due for some positive regression this week.
Aaron Wise (, $7,100)
I can’t seem to ever get Aaron Wise right, but this seems like a layup value play on a course in TPC Scottsdale that favors Ball Strikers and mitigates putting advantage. Wise had a historic showing at the 2021 WM Phoenix Open, losing 10 strokes putting, the most of his career, thanks to a 5-putt and a 4-putt in the same round.
That horrendous putting display overshadowed what was otherwise a very solid week tee-to-green. And since this time last year, Wise has actually transformed the putting into a strength after switching to the broomstick putter; he’s gained strokes putting in seven of his last nine events since the equipment change.
Wise rated out 13th in my model this week, ranking top-30 in SG: APP, SG: OTT, Birdies or Better Gained, and P4: 400-500. He’s finished top-10 in each of his last two trips to the desert with a T5 at the CJ Cup and T8 at The Shriners, so I like his prospects to marry the Ball Striking and newfound Putting prominence together in this week’s trip to Scottsdale.
Mito Pereira (, $7,000)
We’re only a few weeks away now from Mito picking up his first career PGA TOUR victory at the 2022 Honda Classic, and that means the days of catching a $7,000, 100-1+ price on Mito are dwindling quickly.
My unwavering support and bias aside, this price is a mistake, and he will be incredibly popular for it. Mito is one of only ten players in this week’s field to rate out Top-50 in SG: OTT, SG: APP, and Scrambling. At TPC Scottsdale, if you can do those three things well, you’re going to find repeated success.
Mito has also transformed himself from a Ball Striking specialist to a Putting specialist in recent weeks, shockingly gaining 2.5+ strokes Putting in each of his last four events. He’s finished inside the top-40 in ten of his last 13 starts and has yet to really pair up one of his great Ball Striking weeks with a great Putting week.
It’s only a matter of time before he does, so the upside is hard to pass up at this discounted price.
Brendan Steele (, $6,500)
If you want to play it safe this week and just find one salary saver who can make it through the cut and push for a T40, Brendan Steele is probably your guy. He ranks 5th in this field in SG: TOT at TPC Scottsdale, with four career top-10s and eight top-30 finishes here over the last ten years.
Steele is an above-average ball-striker on TOUR and has gained in Ball Striking in all 11 of his WMPO appearances. Two lousy recent starts at the Sony Open and The AmEx have reduced him to $6,500 on Draft Kings this week, but we’re still only five starts removed from his impressive runner-up finish at the ZOZO Championship in Japan last October.
While the results haven’t quite been there recently, Steele still rates out above-average in each of this week’s key categories of SG: APP, SG: OTT, Scrambling, P4: 400-500, P5: 550-600, and Comp Course History, so the floor should be relatively high for Steele as he returns to one of his favorite tracks of the year.
Jason Dufner (, $6,100)
Jason Dufner, like a light version of Mito Pereira, has reversed course recently from a Tee-To-Green specialist who couldn’t buy a putt, to a Putting specialist who can’t seem to get out of neutral with his Ball Striking.
At just $100 removed from the stone minimum on DraftKings, I’m willing to take a gamble that this two-time top-10 finisher at the WMPO can get back on track with his Ball Striking this week and find his way to the weekend.
The last time Jason Dufner was on my radar, he finished one stroke off the first-round lead at the Houston Open before torpedoing himself to an early exit with a Friday 76. The point is, while he’s missed the cut in three of his last four starts, he hasn’t been off by much, losing just one stroke to the field in each of those MC’s.
Dufner found himself 16th overall in my model this week, ranking top-30 in SG: APP, SG: OTT, Birdies or Better Gained, and Scrambling Gained. He’s also sixth in this field in P4: 400-450, where half of the Par 4s will be concentrated this week. That’s a lot to like in a near-minimum-priced player!