NBA Daily Plays Analysis 2/3

Written By PlayPicks Staff on February 3, 2015 - Last Updated on June 27, 2018

Below I’ll go over some of my NBA daily plays for tonight’s five game DFS slate. It’s tough to really fade anyone with just five games so I went ahead and pointed out the guys who I’m targeting and some value plays.

 

Point Guards

 

I’m not going to beat around the bush, paying up for Stephen Curry is something I’d try to do. The matchups between the Warriors and Kings have been high scoring for the most part. They’ve totaled more than 220 points in two of the three games they’ve played. The Kings allow 50.2 fantasy points per game to opposing point guards on DraftKings, but have surrendered a tad over 55 fantasy points per game in their last five. In three games Curry is averaging 43 fantasy points per game against the Kings which is fewer than his yearly average, but that’s a pretty high floor to have if you ask me. Darren Collinson is another point guard I have on my radar tonight. He has played well against the Warriors, averaging 35.2 fantasy points per game. The over/under is 218 for this game tonight, as I mentioned above, they’ve smashed that twice already. This should be a high scoring game and both point guards are in play. Ty Lawson has been in an offensive slump in recent games, but who else better than the not so good Sixers defense would you bet on that he comes out of this slump? He’s cheaper than he’s been in the last 10 games on DraftKings and can make a solid tournament play. He might even be somewhat contrarian. The only concern is the Sixers could be without their best player, Michael Carter-Williams, so this can become a blowout real fast ***Editors note: MCW is playing*** However, on a night with limited options, Lawson is still playable in tournaments. D.J. Augustin has been on a tear since becoming the starter. Three of four games with 40+ fantasy points, but tonight’s matchup isn’t the greatest for him as the Heat do a solid job against point guards. The one thing he has going for him is that the Heat allow the most three-pointers to opposing point guards and Augustin is averaging two per game in his last four games. I’d lean more towards Collinson because of the game flow. If you’re considering some of the cheaper guys Marcus Smart and Larry Drew come to mind. Keep in mind, Drew is only in play if Carter-Williams is out and he gets the start. He is solely a tournament play as he doesn’t offer much besides minutes. However, if you’re trying to use a min salary player to fit in some other expensive guys, Drew can be serviceable. I do like Smart though; he’s cheap on both sites and has a great matchup against the Knicks who allow the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. He’s also scored 20+ fantasy points in three of his last four games which will put him over value. Lastly, Galloway is also in play tonight; however, his usage rate is usually high so I prefer him in cash games.

 

Shooting Guards

 

There aren’t many options to choose from at the shooting guard position tonight. Klay Thompson is a must if you ask me. He’s $8,500, is averaging 49 fantasy points per game against the Kings, and has scored more than 40 points in five of his last 10 games. As mentioned above, this should be a high scoring and fast paced game which bodes well for Thompson’s style of play. If you’re not interested in paying top dollar for a shooting guard, Wesley Matthews is someone to consider. He’s playing high minutes, has scored 30 or more fantasy points in four of the last eight games, and this is the second highest over/under of the night. Matthews is taking plenty of shots so he should have no trouble putting up some fantasy points again tonight. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope can be fired up in tournaments tonight. He’s coming off of a huge game where he scored 28 real points and 51.25 fantasy points. He’s inconsistent, hence why I’m only taking a shot with him in tournaments. Another solid option is Evan Turner, he too is inconsistent, but has a great matchup against the Knicks tonight. Turner is solely a tournament option because he has the tendency to score fewer than 10 fantasy points on any given night.

 

Small Forward

 

Full disclosure, I will have Carmelo Anthony in 100% of my DraftKings lineups tonight. He’s less than $9K, which is a bargain if you ask me. He’s also less than $10K on FanDuel which makes him a great play there as well. Melo has put up over 40 fantasy points in five of his last six games, including two 50+ fantasy point performances on DraftKings and one on Fanduel. He’s a scorer first, but contributes in other categories. On FanDuel, Gordon Hayward is $1400 cheaper than Melo, which makes him a great play on there. He’s exceeded his yearly fantasy points per game average in four of his last five games. He also has a good matchup as the Trail Blazers don’t defend well against small forwards. They allow 40 fantasy points per game on DraftKings and 35 on FanDuel. On the cheaper end, there’s Wilson Chandler who is exactly $5700 on both sites. He’s been in a shooting slump in recent games, but much like Lawson, he should be able to snap out of it against this poor Sixers defense. Prior to his last three games where he’s scored 21+ fantasy points, Chandler went three consecutive games with 30+ fantasy points. He should be able to drain some threes against a team giving up 2.2 per game to small forwards. My value play tonight is Joe Ingles. He’s not a flashy player, but has consistently posted 20+ fantasy points in five consecutive games. He contributes in just all about all categories, which is essential in DFS, especially for some of the cheaper salaried players.

 

Power Forwards

 

There are two high end plays at this position tonight, LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Monroe. Both are great options and have high floors, but Aldridge offers a much higher ceiling. I like Aldridge in both tournaments and cash games tonight. He’s scored 60+ fantasy points in two of his last three games. What thumb injury, right? He’s pretty much a guaranteed double-double and is picking up the slack for the offense of the Trail Blazers which has been struggling lately. Some mid-level plays are Brandon Bass and Robert Covington. I’m leaning more towards Covington because he offers a much higher ceiling at a cheaper price. His value will also increase if Carter-Williams sits out tonight. Covington has scored 30+ fantasy points in three of four games on DraftKings and in two games on FanDuel. Keep in mind, he’s listed as a small forward on FanDuel, but a power forward on DraftKings. With that said, he makes a great tournament play, but I’m a bit apprehensive to toss him in cash games because he has scored fewer than 20 fantasy points in three of his last 10 games. If you’re looking for dirt cheap, Louis Amundson is in play. He’s $3700 on DraftKings and $4300 on FanDuel. He’s scored more than 20 fantasy points in four straight games and is seeing some consistent minutes. He’s a good source of boards and blocks. All he needs to hit value is about 21 fantasy points and he’s been doing that on a nightly basis since being inserted into the starting lineup.

 

Centers

 

If you’re not paying up for Curry tonight, the other high-level salary over $10K is Demarcus Cousins. He is always in play because of his consistency and ceiling. He has scored 50+ fantasy points in seven of his last 10 games, including three 60+ fantasy point performances. He’s a flat out beast, so if you can fit him in to your lineups, don’t hesitate to do so. Hassan Whiteside versus Andre Drummond should be fun to watch tonight, two athletic big men who can ball. Drummond is a better tournament play as he tends to have some off nights. However, Whiteside is in play across the board. How good is this kid? He’s averaging 16.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, and 4.0 blocks over his last five games. Pistons have surrendered 56.2 fantasy points per game to centers in their last six games. Whiteside has three 50+ fantasy point games in his last 10 games. Chris Bosh who starts at power forward but is still listed as a center on some sites is also in play. He is the team’s number one scoring option and has a good matchup against Detroit who struggle against bigs. I would recommend starting one of these four guys, but if you’re looking for a more affordable alternative, I’d roll with Rudy Gorbert. When he’s on the court he produces, but he’s behind both Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors, and doesn’t always get consistent minutes. Keep an eye on Robin Lopez’s status for this evening, he’s questionable and could play. If he does play, he’d be a risky play and I would only suggest you play him in tournaments if you’re feeling frisky.

 

Good luck to all tonight!

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