We have a 10-game MLB DFS slate on DraftKings and a nine-game slate on FanDuel on Sunday, 6/23/19 beginning at 1:05 p.m EDT. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests. Note that some of these plays are recommended for Cash, and some are best reserved for GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.
Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!
BEST MLB DFS TOURNAMENTS FOR 6/23/19
Hidden Ball Trick: $11 entry, $200k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $50k to 1st!
Pitcher’s Mound: $60.60 entry, $300k guaranteed (DraftKings)- $100K to 1st!
Sun. Squeeze: $5.55 entry, $125k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $25K to 1st!
Sun. Grand Slam: $77 entry, $100K guaranteed (FanDuel)- $20K to 1st!
Three Up for June 23, 2019
Rick Porcello vs. TOR ($8.6k DraftKings, $8k FanDuel)
Porcello is priced a tier or two below the high-end options on this slate. However, his matchup arguably gives him close to as much upside. The Red Sox right-hander will face off against a Blue Jays squad that sports a .289 wOBA, -27.0 wRAA, and 25.6 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching on the road this season. What’s more, Porcello has held current Toronto bats to a collective .229 average and mediocre .311 on-base percentage over a sample of 118 career at-bats.
Porcello has excelled in two consecutive difficult matchups. First, he allowed two earned runs over 6.2 innings to the Rangers before shutting out the Twins in their home park over seven innings. The veteran also has a .232 BAA and .277 wOBA allowed across 51.0 home innings at Fenway Park while also allowing a modest 28.1 percent hard-contact rate. Plus, Porcello has surrendered just four home runs there despite the stadium’s hitter-friendly dimensions.
Finally, consider Porcello’s undeniable consistency this season in terms of avoiding blowups and remaining in games long enough to earn quality-start and win bonuses. He’s logged at least six innings in 10 of his last 11 starts, with eight of those qualifying as quality starts. That includes a May 22 turn against the Blue Jays where he limited them to an earned run on three hits over six frames.
Given the factors just cited, I see Porcello as a fit for cash games or GPPs.
Other pitchers to consider: Justin Verlander (at NYY), Mike Soroka (at WAS), Joey Lucchesi (at PIT), Brandon Woodruff (vs. CIN), Jordan Yamamoto (at PHI)
Christian Yelich vs. CIN ($5.9k DraftKings, $4.9k FanDuel)
Yelich is a prudent play any time he’s on the slate. He’s even more appealing when the matchup aligns this well. Yelich is facing a pitcher vulnerable to left-handers and, most important, himself in Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani. The right-hander comes into Sunday’s game allowing a .338 average and .411 wOBA to left-handed bats on the road. He’s also been touched up by Yelich for a .467 average, including four extra-base hits (two doubles, two homers), over 16 career encounters.
Yelich checked into Saturday’s action with a whopping .378 average and .501 wOBA against right-handed pitching, absurd numbers in and of themselves. However, they’re even better with home splits. Yelich has a jaw-dropping .447 average and .614 wOBA against righty arms at Miller Park, good for a 23.5 wRAA. Another point in his favor is Yelich’s strong record against multiple Reds relievers, including Robert Stephenson (.571 BAA), Jared Hughes (.750 BAA) and David Hernandez (.667 BAA).
Given all the factors in his favor and his immense talent, I see Yelich as a strong cash game or GPP play Sunday.
Other hitters to consider: Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi (vs. TOR), Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley (at WAS), Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel (at NYY), Jesus Aguilar, Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, Lorenzo Cain, Orlando Arcia (all vs. CIN), Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo (vs. NYM), Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Ronald Guzman, Rougned Odor (all vs. CWS)
Twins vs. KCR (RHP Homer Bailey)
Royals starter Homer Bailey has been in impressive form recently. However, he’s also had the benefit of facing some inferior competition. That will be far from the case Sunday, as the high-powered Twins will be taking their hacks against him. Minnesota went into Saturday’s action with a Majors-high .361 wOBA, 127 wRC+ and 41.2 wRAA against right-handed pitching on the road. Bailey has a 4.67 ERA at home, and he’s also allowed an elevated 26.6 percent line-drive rate and 44.8 percent hard-contact rate at Kauffman Stadium, which also came into Saturday with the seventh-highest run factor (1.092).
Minnesota has the firepower to take advantage of Bailey’s weaknesses against right-handed hitters (.305 average, .347 wOBA allowed to righty bats at home). C.J. Cron, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver, Jonathan Schoop, Miguel Sano, and Jorge Polanco make for strong components of a Twins stack. That said, the statuses of Garver and Schoop have to be monitored.
Finally, consider the Kansas City bullpen is also a target once Bailey exits. Royals relievers have allowed a 5.81 ERA and .328 wOBA at home over the last month of play.
Other stacks to consider: Brewers (vs. CIN), Astros (at NYY), Rangers (vs. CWS) *DraftKings*
Three Down for June 23, 2019
Pitcher To Fade
J.A. Happ vs. HOU ($7.5k DraftKings, $7.5k FanDuel)
Happ has endured an up-and-down season and now faces a team with multiple problematic hitters for him. Houston comes into Sunday’s matchup with a .357 wOBA and .236 ISO against southpaws when traveling, and they also sport an impressive .852 OPS. Then, current Astros bats own a collective .274/.339/.478 line against Happ over 113 at-bats.
Happ has allowed a 5.13 ERA and .346 wOBA at Yankee Stadium, along with 10 home runs. He also hasn’t gone past five innings in three of his last four starts, and he’s seen a notable drop in strikeout rate this season. Happ sports his lowest K/9 (7.2) since the 2009 season and has also seen a slight drop in average velocity to 90.6 mph. Given Houston’s overall firepower — even without Carlos Correa and George Springer — and Happ’s low strikeout potential, I see the veteran lefty’s upside as capped on Sunday.
Hitter To Fade
Mookie Betts vs. TOR ($5.2k DraftKings, $4.1k FanDuel)
Betts’ price remains very elevated, and he won’t exactly be in the best of hitting scenarios Sunday. He faces an old nemesis who’s adept at keeping the ball in the park in Marcus Stroman. The Blue Jays hurler has also stymied Betts for a .206/.229/.235 line over 35 career plate appearances. That sample includes just one extra-base hit (a double) and nine strikeouts. Betts is also having a down year compared to last season’s MVP-caliber numbers.
Then, Stroman has been solid on the road. He’s allowed a 3.22 ERA and yielded a minuscule .268 wOBA across 36.1 road innings, along with a 2.13 FIP. He’s generating the same 58.0 percent groundball rate he’s sporting in his home park as well, which certainly helps lessen the chances of explosive outings from players with high salaries such as Betts. Given the matchup Sunday, I see Betts as a fade.
Stack To Fade
Yankees vs. HOU (RHP Justin Verlander)
The Yankees are typically not a fade candidate, especially now that they have their two biggest bats back in the lineup. However, if there’s one opposing pitcher that can put them in that category, it’s Astros starter Justin Verlander. The ace right-hander has held current New York hitters to a collective .210/.272/.359 line over a robust sample of 248 at-bats. Verlander also boasts a .164 BAA and .258 wOBA across 64.2 road innings.
The Yankees have been excellent against right-handed pitching at home. However, they’ve consistently been flummoxed by Verlander over the last three seasons. The Astros’ right-hander owns an 0.84 ERA, .173 BAA and eye-popping 24:1 K:BB across three starts against the Yanks over that span. Moreover, Verlander simply doesn’t get blown up. He’s allowed four earned runs only twice, and he’s yielded three or fewer on nine other occasions.