We have a 12-game MLB DFS slate on Monday, 6/17/19 beginning at 7:05 p.m EDT. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests. Note that some of these plays are recommended for Cash, and some are best reserved for GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.
Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!
BEST MLB DFS TOURNAMENTS FOR 6/17/19
Micro-Millions Premiere: $5 entry, $400k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $100k to 1st!
Power Alley: $44 entry, $100k guaranteed (DraftKings)- $20K to 1st!
Supreme Squeeze: $6 entry, $222k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $50K to 1st!
Mon. Grand Slam: $55 entry, $100K guaranteed (FanDuel)- $20K to 1st!
Three Up for June 17, 2019
Mike Soroka vs. NYM ($10.5k DraftKings, $8.5k FanDuel)
Soroka had a rough outing his last time out, but that’s an outlier in an otherwise stellar season. The right-hander still has elite numbers across the board. He owns a 3.03 ERA and .275 wOBA allowed at SunTrust Park, and he’s stymied right-handed hitters there for a .203 average and .243 wOBA. Mets hitters have also struggled against Soroka over a short sample: a collective .207/.207/.345 line over 29 career at-bats.
New York is also one of the more punchless offenses in the Majors against right-handed pitching on the road. Over the last month, the Mets own a middling .294 wOBA and -7.6 wRAA against righties when traveling. Then, Soroka has been a remarkably consistent fantasy asset, going at least six innings in eight of his last nine starts. Given the combination of factors in his favor, I see Soroka as excellent for cash or GPPs on Monday.
Other pitchers to consider: Luis Castillo (vs. HOU), Lance Lynn (vs. CLE), Kenta Maeda (vs. SFG), Mike Fiers (vs. BAL)
Freddie Freeman vs. NYM ($5.2k DraftKings, $4.4k FanDuel)
Freeman lines up as an attractive play Monday against a right-hander he’s punished frequently. Freeman owns a career .500/.667/.950 line against Mets starter Zack Wheeler over 33 career plate appearances. That includes three doubles, two home runs, and 12 walks. Wheeler has been effective against left-handed bats this season, but Freeman clearly has his number and also boasts a .308 average, 29 extra-base hits (13 doubles, two triples, 14 home runs) and a .411 wOBA against right-handed pitching overall.
Freeman will also have the luxury of a good matchup when Wheeler exits. Mets relievers check in with a .351 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters on the road this season, plus a Majors-high 9.69 ERA, .400 average, and .479 wOBA to that handedness on the road over the last month.
Given his stellar numbers and the matchup, Freeman is a fit for either cash games or GPPs on Monday.
Other hitters to consider: Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner (all vs. SFG), Matt Chapman, Jurickson Profar, Khris Davis, Matt Olson (all vs. BAL), Nick Markakis, Josh Donaldson, Tyler Flowers (all vs. NYM), Luke Voit (vs. TAM), Jean Segura, Bryce Harper (at WAS), Joey Wendle, Ji-Man Choi, Tommy Pham (all at NYY)
Angels at TOR (RHP Edwin Jackson)
Edwin Jackson finally looked like a competent big-league pitcher again in his last outing after a disastrous start to his season. However, things could well get ugly again Monday against an Angels team adept at hitting right-handed pitching. Los Angeles checks in with a .326 wOBA on the road against righties over the last month, and Jackson has had considerable trouble with all hitters.
Jonathan Lucroy (.375 career average against Jackson) and Mike Trout (two homers in six career at-bats against Jackson) are particularly appealing based on their history versus the veteran righty. Then, Justin Upton, who’s scheduled to make his 2019 debut Monday, owns a .381 career average over 21 career at-bats against Jackson. Albert Pujols, Shohei Ohtani, and Tommy La Stella are other components of a potential Angels stack that could provide handsome returns.
Other stacks to consider: Dodgers (vs. SFG), Athletics (vs. BAL), Braves (vs. NYM)
Three Down for June 17, 2019
Pitcher To Fade
Tyler Beede at LAD ($5.4k DraftKings, $5.7k FanDuel)
Beede is an inexperienced pitcher who’s already had a couple of rough outings and finds himself in a particularly bad spot Monday. The right-hander has already given up at least four earned runs on three occasions this season. He now draws a matchup against a Dodgers team that’s boasted one of the most potent offenses in the Majors. Los Angeles checks in with a .285 average, .369 wOBA and .245 ISO against righties at home, with those respective figures bumping up to .308, .386 and .272 over the last month.
Beede has been especially pounded by left-handed hitters. He’s allowed a .382 average and .472 wOBA to lefty bats, putting Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, Alex Verdugo, and Cody Bellinger in especially advantageous positions. However, Beede has also yielded a .374 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the road, so he really won’t have any respite from what could well be an ambush from early in the game. Then, consider he’s only pitched more than five innings once and also has control issues, which typically bloat his pitch count and limit his upside.
Hitter To Fade
Nelson Cruz vs. BOS ($5.3k DraftKings, $3.9k FanDuel)
Cruz has a long history against Red Sox right-hander Rick Porcello, and it’s not a rosy one. Cruz flounders with a .150/.171/.225 career line in the matchup over 41 plate appearances. The slugger has also struck out 11 times against Porcello and has just a single extra-base hit (a home run) in his career versus the righty.
Porcello has a much better track record against right-handed hitters this season (.305 wOBA allowed) although it does bear noting he’s had much more trouble with them on the road. However, he also has an 8.80 K/9 when traveling that’s markedly better than the 6.53 figure he’s posted at home. Plus, he has Target Field working in his favor. The Twins’ home park owns the lowest run factor (0.746) and fourth-lowest home-run factor (0.700).
Given that Cruz isn’t exactly cheap and also has a poor track record versus multiple Boston relievers, I’d suggest a fade.
Stack To Fade
Astros at CIN (RHP Luis Castillo)
The Astros are normally a desirable offense. However, they’re still missing multiple potent bats due to injury and don’t exactly have a cakewalk matchup against Luis Castillo. The hard-throwing right-hander has a 1.87 ERA, .171 BAA, and .218 wOBA over 43.1 home innings. He’s also generated a 3.07 xFIP and allowed a modest 29.4 percent hard-contact rate at Great American Ballpark. Houston has been missing Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and George Springer due to injuries for multiple weeks.
Partly due to those absences, the Astros have a modest .317 wOBA versus righties on the road over the last month, compared to a .333 figure for the season. Castillo is highly likely to stymie Houston’s makeshift lineup. Castillo has held left-handed hitters to a .185 average and .220 wOBA at home, and he’s flummoxed righty bats to the tune of a .154 average and .215 wOBA there as well. Moreover, he’s allowed just one home run and four extra-base hits overall to the 165 batters he’s faced there all season.
Given that the Astros are still working short-handed and Castillo’s dominance at home, I see Houston as a stay-away squad.