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mlb dfs picks

We have an 11-game MLB DFS slate on Sunday, 6/16/19 beginning at 1:05 p.m EDT. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests. Note that some of these plays are recommended for Cash, and some are best reserved for GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.

Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!

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Pitcher’s Mound: $60.60 entry, $300k guaranteed (DraftKings)- $100K to 1st!
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Sun. Grand Slam: $77 entry, $100K guaranteed (FanDuel)- $20K to 1st!

Three Up for June 16, 2019

Best Pitcher

Brad Peacock vs. TOR ($8.8k DraftKings, $8.5k FanDuel)

There are some appealing arms at various price points Sunday. Peacock lands in a sweet spot just above the middle and draws an excellent matchup in his home park. The Blue Jays came into Saturday’s action with an AL-low .285 wOBA, a -28.1 wRAA and a 25.8 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching on the road. Then, Peacock owns a 2.90 ERA, .217 BAA and .277 wOBA allowed across 40.1 home frames. He also owns a 10.04 K/9 at Minute Maid Park and has been particularly tough on right-handed bats there. Peacock has held righty hitters to a .162 average and .192 wOBA over a 72-batter sample at home.

That dominance against right-handed hitters spells trouble for Danny Jansen, Lourdes Gurriel, Randal Grichuk, and Teoscar Hernandez. Additionally, Peacock has handled switch-hitters Justin Smoak and Freddy Galvis in his career, holding the duo to a combined 3-for-17. Peacock has given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts and sports an impressively modest 9.5 HR/FB rate at home.

Given his consistency and the matchup, I see Peacock as a rock-solid mid-tier cash or GPP play Sunday.

Other pitchers to consider: James Paxton (at CWS), Trevor Bauer (at DET), Sonny Gray (vs. TEX), Sandy Alcantara (vs. PIT) 

Best Hitter

Didi Gregorius at CWS ($4.1k DraftKings, $3.2k FanDuel)

Gregorius has hit the ground running after a late start to his season. The veteran shortstop is sporting an outstanding .385/.385/.538 after another multi-hit effort Saturday. He draws an excellent matchup against Odrisamer Despaigne, who has been battered by lefty bats. The White Sox starter comes in allowing a .427 wOBA to left-handed hitters over a very small sample this season and a .344 figure over his long career.

Gregorius came into Saturday’s action with a .389 average and .419 wOBA against right-handed pitching. That 2019 success is no fluke; Gregorius has a .271 average, 82 of 95 career homers and a .330 wOBA against righty arms over his career. He also has a solid career track record against one of Despaigne’s trademark pitches. He owns a .356 career wOBA versus the sinker, along with a minuscule 6.3 percent strikeout rate.

Given his strong start to the season and the favorable matchup, I consider Gregorius fitting for either cash games or GPPs on Sunday.

Other hitters to consider: J.D. Martinez (at BAL)Miguel Cabrera (vs. CLE), Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Yadier Molina (all at NYM), Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Maikel Franco (at ATL), Nick Ahmed (at WAS), Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Nelson Cruz, Byron Buxton (all vs. KCR)

Best Stack

Nationals vs. ARI (RHP Archie Bradley (opener)/ RHP Zack Godley (long reliever))   

The Nationals make for one of several appealing stacks Sunday, and they could well be the least owned of the four I’m highlighting. Washington should see plenty of Zack Godley after Archie Bradley toes the rubber to open the game. Current Nats hitters boast a collective .360/.377/.460 line versus Bradley and a .298/.366/.464 tally against Godley. Then, Washington has been an impressive squad against right-handed pitching at home over the last month — .265 average, .328 wOBA, and .180 ISO.

Godley has particularly struggled against left-handed hitters in what has been a down year. He’s allowing a .315 average, .390 wOBA, and 40.5 percent hard-contact rate to lefty bats. That makes Matt Adams (who also sports a career .444 average against Godley), Juan Soto, and Adam Eaton especially appealing. However, it’s also worth noting that right-handed hitting Trea Turner and Howie Kendrick have also enjoyed plenty of success against Godley, as evidenced by their respective .417 and .500 career averages versus the D-Backs righty. And Anthony Rendon, he of the .342 average and .449 home wOBA against right-handed pitching at home, is also an excellent candidate for a Washington stack.

Other stacks to consider: Yankees (vs. CWS), Phillies (at ATL), Twins (vs. KCR)


Three Down for June 16, 2019

Pitcher To Fade

Mike Foltynewicz vs. PHI ($7.8k DraftKings, $7.1k FanDuel)   

Foltynewicz has regressed across the board this season. However, he’s far from cheap and faces a team in the Phillies that can do damage when they’re on. “Folty” has particularly had trouble in SunTrust Park, where he’s allowed a .382 wOBA, 11 homers, and a 5.01 xFIP. He’s yielded four runs or more in five of six home starts overall. And he’s served up multiple home runs to Maikel Franco and Bryce Harper.

The Phillies naturally bring plenty of pop despite underachieving overall. They rank in the top 10 in both doubles (136) and triples (11). They also come into Sunday’s game hot, having scored between five and eight runs in four of their last five games. Given the potency of the opposition and Foltynewicz’s own questionable home track record, I see his salary better invested elsewhere.

Hitter To Fade

Eduardo Escobar at WAS ($5k DraftKings, $4k FanDuel)

Escobar is undeniably enjoying an excellent season overall. However, he sports drastic switch-hitting splits, with a considerable amount of his success coming against southpaws. He draws not only a right-handed starter Sunday but one who’s given him considerable trouble. Escobar owns an anemic .130/.167/.174 line over 24 career plate appearances against Nats starter Anibal Sanchez. That sample includes only one extra-base hit (a double) and six strikeouts.

Escobar checked into Saturday’s action with a .237 average and 23.0 percent strikeout rate versus righties. In turn, Sanchez has flummoxed right-handed hitters for a .211 average and .250 wOBA overall, including a .200 BAA and .226 wOBA against them in his home stadium. Sanchez has allowed just one homer to the 148 right-handed hitters he’s faced and just seven extra-base hits, to boot.

Stack To Fade

Rangers at CIN (RHP Sonny Gray)   

It’s well known the Rangers are far less intimidating outside of the hitter-friendly confines of Globe Life Park. Sunday, they’re on a good hitter’s field in Great American Ballpark, but they’re facing a pitcher that been very good at avoiding big innings and blowups overall in Sonny Gray. The Reds right-hander has allowed an impressively small .292 wOBA over 33.0 home frames and just two homers there over a 141-batter sample.

The Rangers checked into Saturday’s action with a 25.6 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching on the road over the last month. Plus, Gray has allowed three runs or fewer in six of seven home turns, and in 11 of his 13 starts overall. Plus, current Texas bats have a collective career .235 average and .299 OBP against Gray in 153 total at-bats. He’s been especially tough on some of the Rangers’ most powerful bats, including Elvis Andrus (.189 BAA), Asdrubal Cabrera (.143 BAA), Nomar Mazara (.111 BAA) and Rougned Odor (.129 BAA).

Given all the factors just cited, I suggest staying off any type of Rangers stack Sunday.

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