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MLB DFS Picks

We have an eight-game MLB DFS slate on Saturday, 6/15/19 beginning at 7:10 p.m EDT. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests. Note that some of these plays are recommended for Cash, and some are best reserved for GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.

Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!

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BEST MLB DFS TOURNAMENTS FOR 6/15/19

19th Hole Special: $19 entry, $150k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $50k to 1st!
Slap Hitter: $66 entry, $40k guaranteed (DraftKings)- $5K to 1st!
Sat. Squeeze: $6 entry, $100k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $20K to 1st!
Sat. Grand Slam: $77 entry, $77K guaranteed (FanDuel)- $15K to 1st!

Three Up for June 15, 2019

Best Pitcher

Frankie Montas vs. SEA ($9.9k DraftKings, $8.7k FanDuel)

Montas has been on a roll virtually all season. He’s generated quality starts in six of his last seven trips to the mound and owns a solid 3.54 ERA along with a perfect 3-0 mark at pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. Montas has essentially been immune to blowups this season as well. He’s allowed more than four runs in just one outing, and that was an outlier.

Then, while some Mariners hitters have had success against Montas in a small sample, they’ve yet to face him during this breakout season. What’s more, three of the most successful have been Mitch Haniger (.333 average), Ryon Healy (.333 average) and Dee Gordon (.667 average). Haniger and Healy currently reside on the injured list, while Gordon is much more prone to pelt Montas with a single or two rather than a big hit. Montas is also doing an excellent job limiting the damage overall in terms of hard contact, yielding an impressive 87.5 mph average exit velocity on batted balls, along with a minuscule 3.3 percent barrel rate. That’s helped lead to a stingy 0.7 HR/9, with all of those aforementioned numbers facilitated by a fastball that’s been averaging just under 97 mph.

Finally, consider the Coliseum’s favorable dimensions when evaluating Montas. The Athletics’ home park checked into Friday’s action with the third-lowest run factor (0.778) and ninth-lowest home-run factor (0.823) in the Majors.

Other pitchers to consider: Jake Odorizzi (vs. KCR), Walker Buehler (vs. CHC), Mike Minor (at CIN), Sean Newcomb (vs. PHI)

Best Hitter

Trevor Story vs. SDP ($5.5k DraftKings, $4.7k FanDuel)

The matchup could hardly set up better for Story on Saturday. He draws not only a left-hander but also one against whom he’s already had considerable success over a modest sample. Padres southpaw Eric Lauer has already been tagged by Story for two career home runs in six plate appearances. Lauer also checks in allowing a .267 average and .338 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the road, along with a mammoth 51.8 percent hard-contact rate.

In turn, Story has crushed lefty arms for a .310 average, .351 wOBA and near-identical 51.7 percent hard-contact rate. He also makes for a bad matchup for Lauer in terms of pitch splits. Story is an elite fastball hitter while Lauer relies on his four-seam more than any other pitch. Naturally, Story also has Coors Field on his side, a park where he has a .313 average, .419 wOBA and .328 ISO overall this season.

Given his hefty upside, I see Story as fit for either cash games or GPPs on Saturday.

Other hitters to consider: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Ian Desmond (all vs. SDP), Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, D.J. LeMahieu, Aaron Hicks (all at CWS), Paul DeJong, Yadier Molina (at NYM), Marcus Semien, Mark Canha, Khris Davis, Ramon Laureano (all vs. SEA), Asdrubal Cabrera, Elvis Andrus (at CIN), Manny Machado, Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers, Franmil Reyes (all at COL)

Best Stack

MIN vs. KCR (RHP Glenn Sparkman)   

The Twins have been lethal against right-handed pitching in their home park of Target Field, especially recently. Minnesota came into Friday night’s action with an AL-high .367 wOBA versus righties at home over the last month of play. The Twins’ 406 runs scored and +117 run differential both lead the Majors, and they’ll draw a matchup that could continue facilitating that type of production Saturday. Royals starter Glenn Sparkman has respectable numbers overall, but he’s struggled mightily on the road over a small sample. Sparkman owns an 8.22 ERA, .333 BAA, and .374 wOBA across a 37-batter sample on the road thus far.

Sparkman has particularly had trouble against lefty bats. He’s yielded a .292 average, .358 wOBA, 5.71 xFIP, and 48.2 percent hard-contact rate to that handedness. That makes the likes of Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, and Max Kepler especially attractive. Then, Sparkman has also allowed a .333 average and .336 wOBA to the 36 right-handed bats he’s faced when traveling. Therefore, Mitch Garver, Jonathan Schoop, C.J. Cron, and Nelson Cruz could certainly be viable as well.

Other stacks to consider: Rockies (vs. SDP), Athletics (vs. SEA), Yankees (vs. CWS)

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Three Down for June 15, 2019

Pitcher To Fade

Reynaldo Lopez vs. NYY ($5k DraftKings, $6.2k FanDuel)   

Lopez put together an impressive outing against the Royals his last time out. He held Kansas City to one earned run over six innings and recorded eight strikeouts. However, that caliber of outing has been more the exception than the rule. Prior to that start, Lopez had surrendered between five and eight earned runs in his three previous trips to the mound. He also has two other outings this season giving up six and eight earned runs.

Lopez has a 5.52 ERA, .275 average, and .367 wOBA allowed across 45.2 home innings. He’s also given up 12 of his 18 homers on the season at Guaranteed Rate Field and has been tagged for .350-plus wOBAs by both sides of the plate there. The Yankees make for a particularly bad matchup for him, considering they bring capable bats like Gary Sanchez, D.J. LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, and Didi Gregorius to the table.

Given his overall track record this season and the fact the Yankees own a .362 wOBA against righties on the road over the last month of play, I see Lopez as a fade on Saturday.

Hitter To Fade

Hunter Pence at CIN ($5.4k DraftKings, $4k FanDuel)

Pence is enjoying a resurgent season thus far in 2019. However, Saturday doesn’t exactly set up as the best matchup for him. Reds starter Tanner Roark has held Pence hitless in seven career encounters and recorded three strikeouts against him. Roark has also been at his best in same-handed matchups this season. The veteran has held right-handed bats to a .229 average and .249 wOBA (including .230 at home). He’s yielded just one home run to the 164 hitters of that handedness he’s faced.

Pence has been very good against right-handed pitching, especially on the road. But Roark has made right-handed hitters work for any impactful hits by yielding just seven of the extra-base variety. Therefore, while Pence may get on once or twice, the numbers overwhelmingly point to that coming via a single or walk.

Given his price and the reduced opportunity for success while Roark is in the contest, I’d trend toward fading Pence on Saturday.

Stack To Fade

Royals at MIN (RHP Jake Odorizzi)   

As well as the Twins shape up as a potential stack Saturday, the Royals’ outlook is decidedly depressed on the other side. Jake Odorizzi has been nearly unhittable at home this season. He checks into Saturday’s matchup with a 1.24 ERA, .171 BAA, and .206 wOBA across 36.1 home frames, and he sports an elite 96.8 percent strand rate at Target Field. He’s also enjoyed success against current Royals in the past. KC hitters own a collective .221/.277/.403 line against Odorizzi over a total of 77 career at-bats.

The Royals have been scuffling against right-handed pitching on the road over the last month in particular. Kansas City owns a .290 wOBA and -8.8 wRAA against righties outside of Kauffman Stadium during that stretch, along with a 23.3 percent strikeout rate. Then, it’s worth noting how effective Odorizzi has been against right-handed hitters at Target, holding that handedness to a .108 average and .152 wOBA over a 68-batter sample. That particularly helps reduce the chances of success of Martin Maldonado, Whit Merrifield, Cheslor Cuthbert, and Jorge Soler.

Given that Odorizzi has allowed only four earned runs since April 29, I see Kansas City as a very strong fade candidate Saturday.

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