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mlb dfs

The MLB season is rolling, and there’s a great DFS slate on tap for Friday, 6/14/19. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests during the afternoon.

Note that some of these plays are recommended for Cash, and some are best reserved for GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.

Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when planning for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!

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BEST MLB DFS TOURNAMENTS FOR 6/14/19

Check Swing: $12 entry, $200k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $50,000 to 1st!
Four Seamer: $4 entry, $45k guaranteed (DraftKings)
Rally: $9.99 entry, $125k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $25,000 to 1st!
Squeeze: $5.55 entry: $100k guaranteed (FanDuel)

Three Up for June 14, 2019

Best Pitchers

Gerrit Cole vs. TOR ($11.9k DraftKings, $12.0k FanDuel)

Gerrit Cole is atop a short list of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball. He is certainly worth paying up for in a prime matchup against a strikeout-prone team. Toronto is posting the fifth-highest K-Rate (25.2%) with the second-lowest collective wOBA (.284) against RHPs this season. Only the Padres are rocking a lower collective batting average than the Blue Jays (.220) over the last 14 days, and that inexperienced club averages only 3.76 runs per game on the road.

Cole boasts the highest K/9 ratio (13.82) and lowest xFIP (2.37) in baseball. His swinging strike rate (16.5%) is up, his Z-Contact Rate (78.9%) is down, and he’s been virtually untouchable aside from a troublesome 35.7% HR/FB ratio in home starts. Toronto has one of the lowest HR/FB ratios (12%) in the MLB when playing on the road and should not threaten Cole much in a potentially one-sided affair. Despite his lofty price tag, he is the top-rated option on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight according to FantasyLabs.

Kyle Gibson vs. KC ($9.3k DraftKings, $8.3k FanDuel)

While he struggled in a plus spot at Detroit last Saturday, Kyle Gibson has emerged as a useful starter and a solid Cash play with the elite Twins offense backing him up. The 6-foot-6 RHP is utilizing his slider more and more to contain RHBs. Plus, he is sporting an impressive 10.74 K/9 ratio with a 2.88 xFIP in RvR matchups this year. Gibson owns a 3.24 ERA and is holding hitters to a modest .255 wOBA at home. He elicited 14 ground-ball outs in his season debut at Kansas City. But he was unlucky with a .368 BABIP in that outing and was also undone by a .462 BABIP in his last start.

Gibson certainly has the potential to bounce back against a Royals team that’s logged the fewest runs (30) with the highest K-Rate (29.2%) in the Majors over the last 14 days. KC has few dangerous LHBs and could be without Alex Gordon (back) once again.

Other pitchers to consider: Max Scherzer, Lucas Giolito, Andrew Heaney, Chris Bassitt, Zach Davies 

Best Hitters

Fernando Tatis Jr. at COL ($5.7k DraftKings, $4.3k FanDuel)

San Diego’s prized prospect is coming on strong with 12 hits, including 2 HR to post a .414 average over his last 7 starts. Fernando Tatis Jr. could lead off and lead a Padres stack tonight at Coors Field against struggling RHP Jeff Hoffman. Righties are 21-for-61 (.368) with 4 HR and a 50% hard contact rate off Hoffman this year. Hoffman’s fastball rates -7.9 runs below average. Plus, he’s giving up a 28.3% LD Rate at home. Tatis is posting a troublesome 36.7% K-Rate on the road but flashing intriguing upside with a 45.5% HR/FB ratio in those contests. He’s a GPP option to consider in this matchup along with fellow RHB Franmil Reyes, Wil Myers, and Hunter Renfroe.

Eugenio Suarez vs. TEX ($4.5k DraftKings, $3.4k FanDuel)

The Reds offense has been anemic on the road but tends to step it up in matchups at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Eugenio Suarez leads that charge with a .307/.408/.574 slash line at home versus a .227/.282/.447 slash line on the road. He’s hitting .368 with a 28.6% HR/FB ratio, 20.6% BB ratio, and 200 wRC+ when facing lefties at home this year. The Rangers were expected to start vulnerable southpaw Drew Smyly, but have switched to RHP Jesse Chavez. Chavez is still a player to target with a 17.6% HR/FB ratio and a meek 5.8% swinging strike rate this year. Chavez has made 29 of his 32 appearances out of the bullpen and could soon give way to the Rangers mediocre middle relief.

Other hitters to consider: Christian Yelich, Freddie Freeman, J.D. Martinez, Franmil Reyes, Trey Mancini, Matt Chapman, Bryan Reynolds, Paul DeJong, Jeff McNeil, Jonathan Villar, Ramon Laureano, Yasiel Puig, Rougned Odor 

Best Stack

Athletics vs. LHP Marco Gonzales (Mariners)

Mariners southpaw Marco Gonzales is not keeping the ball down in the zone. As a result, he’s posting a career-low 38.6% GB Rate with a weak 0.95 GB/FB ratio. That’s a recipe for disaster against an Athletics team that ranks fourth in collective batting average (.278) with a low 40.6% GB Rate and a high 41.2% hard contact rate against lefties this season. Gonzales has been roughed up for five-plus ER in three of his last five outings and could give up a generous line once again.

Lefties are hitting .301 with a 46.7% hard contact rate off Gonzales, so Matt Olson is in play as a potentially overlooked 1B option. Matt Chapman is 5-for-13 with 4 doubles in his career against Gonzales and is a rock solid 3B option. Khris Davis is a boom-bust play worth considering, but our preferred plays are in the mid-tier range. Mark Canha and Marcus Semien are two of the highest-rated players on DK per models on FantasyLabs. You can also look towards Ramon Laureano, Chad Pinder, and Stephen Piscotty to fill out a very affordable A’s stack.

Other stacks to consider: Reds vs. Drew Smyly (Rangers), Padres vs. Jeff Hoffman (Rockies), Indians vs. Ryan Carpenter (Tigers)

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Three Down for June 14, 2019

Pitcher To Fade

Rich Hill vs. CHC ($10.3k DraftKings, $9.7k FanDuel)

With so many appealing SPs to choose from tonight, Rich Hill does not stand out in terms of safety or upside. The veteran is posting a career-worst 21.1% HR/FB ratio as he’s struggled to locate his changeup and curveball. His 9.75 K/9 ratio in home starts isn’t particularly appealing, and he’s gotten himself into trouble with an 11.6% BB rate over his last two outings. The Cubs own an above-average .330 wOBA with a league-high 11.1% BB Rate and the third-highest HR/FB ratio (20.4%) against southpaws this year. The Dodgers often tread lightly with Hill since he has a history of blister issues, so don’t expect him to go deep into the ballgame if his pitch count piles up.

Hitter To Fade

Eddie Rosario vs. KC ($4.8k DraftKings, $4.1k FanDuel)

With a plus slider that rates 7.3 runs above average this year, Royals RHP Brad Keller has the right stuff to cool off the Twins red-hot lineup. At the very least, he should contain powerful lefty Eddie Rosario considering he owns a 0.23 HR/9 ratio, .234 BAA, and 33.6% hard contact rate when facing LHBs this season. Rosario is 1-for-6 with a pair of walks in his career against Keller but is only posting a 4.8% BB Rate this year. He’s posting a -2.0 rating against sliders and is swinging a 42.8% of pitches outside of the zone. Look for Keller to capitalize on Rosario’s aggressive approach in an attempt to contain him and the Twins’ other dangerous lefties.

Stack To Fade

Rockies vs. RHP Cal Quantrill (Padres)

Hitters are always pricey at Coors Field, and the Rockies may not be worth all the money they’d cost to stack tonight. Padres RHP Cal Quantrill has the tools to pitch well at Coors. He’s missing bats with a 23.4% K-Rate and a 13.7% swinging strike rate that would rank 15th amongst qualified pitchers. He’s been undone by the long ball but is otherwise giving his defense a chance with a 56.4% GB Rate over his last two outings. The Rockies rank second in collective average (.279) over the last 14 days but have just 14 HRs during that span and a deeper dive shows they’ve been fortunate. Colorado is chasing pitches out of the zone at the fifth highest rate (35.2%) and has been fortunate to post a .340 BABIP while swinging at those offerings.