The MLB season is rolling, and there’s a great DFS slate on tap for Thursday, 6/13/19. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests during the afternoon.
Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.
Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when planning for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!
BEST MLB DFS TOURNAMENTS FOR 6/13/19
Relay Throw: $15 entry, $150k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $50,000 to 1st!
Four Seamer: $4 entry, $35k guaranteed (DraftKings)
Rally: $9.99 entry, $115k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $25,000 to 1st!
Squeeze: $4.44 entry: $60k guaranteed (FanDuel)
Three Up for June 13, 2019
Jacob deGrom vs. STL ($10.4k DraftKings, $10.2k FanDuel)
After a brief dip in his prolific production, Jacob deGrom has resumed his status as a Quality Start machine. He was removed from his start on June 1 due to hip tightness but looked great while striking out 10 over 6 IP in a 112-pitch effort against the Rockies last Friday. Now he’ll face a Cardinals team suddenly slumping with the third-lowest collective wOBA (.285) and third-highest K-Rate (26.9%) over the last 14 days. Paul DeJong and several RHBs are struggling for St. Louis, and deGrom owns an 11.79 K/9 ratio with a fantastic 8.86 K/BB ratio in RvR matchups. He’s posting a ridiculous 0.94 FIP through his two starts this month and has been undone only by an unlucky .373 BABIP in those outings.
Jon Gray vs. SD ($8.3k DraftKings, $7.5k FanDuel)
While he can be erratic, Jon Gray makes for an appealing GPP option at a very low price tag on FanDuel tonight. His Rockies host a Padres team that has taken a nosedive with overpriced acquisition Manny Machado leading the slide by going 4-for-34 this month. San Diego ranks 29th in wOBA (.284) with the second-highest K-Rate (27.3%) over the last 14 days. Gray has handled the thin air at Coors Field well with a 3.00 ERA and 12.5% HR/FB ratio over 30 IP this season. He’s rocking an 11.3% swinging strike rate and 25.5% K-Rate overall this season. Finally, Gray is 5-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 8.98 K/9 ratio over his last seven outings against the Padres.
Other pitchers to consider: Clayton Kershaw, J.A. Happ, Marcus Stroman, Jack Flaherty
Mookie Betts vs. TEX ($4.9k DraftKings, $4.2k FanDuel)
Mookie Betts is not seeing the ball well against LHPs this year. But he is maintaining his usually lofty production against righties. Betts is rocking a .412 OBP with a 16.8% BB Rate against RHPs and posting a .410 wOBA and a 40% hard contact rate at home against righties. He matches up well against Rangers RHP Adrian Sampson, who is allowing a 1.88 HR/9 ratio and .294 BAA in RvR matchups this year. Sampson is yielding a 54.1% hard contact rate and posting a 6.00 ERA on the road. Fenway Park is notoriously tough on visiting pitchers, and Sampson hardly has the stuff to navigate the Red Sox lineup with a fastball that rates -7.1 runs below average and an 88.9% Z-Contact Rate.
Yandy Diaz vs. LAA ($4.0k DraftKings, $3.5k FanDuel)
Yandy Diaz is on one right now with three-plus hits in three of his last five appearances. He’s a bit underpriced on DraftKings with the platoon advantage at home tonight against LHP Tyler Skaggs. Diaz is slashing .333/.412/.600 against LHPs and posting a mighty 66.7% HR/FB ratio and 66.7% hard contact rate when facing southpaws at Tropicana Field. Skaggs is posting a 6.23 ERA and 2.37 HR/9 ratio on the road this year. He’s struggled badly while coughing up a 57.5% LD Rate over his last two starts and hard contact usually translates to hits on the fast turf in Tampa.
Other hitters to consider: Mike Trout, J.D. Martinez, Gary Sanchez, Max Muncy, Didi Gregorius, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., DJ LeMahieu, Tommy Pham, Justin Turner, Cesar Puello, JaCoby Jones, Eloy Jimenez
Yankees vs. RHP Ivan Nova (White Sox)
While the Yankees have little collective experience against Ivan Nova, they shouldn’t have much trouble figuring him out tonight. Nova’s 92.4% Z-Contact Rate and 6.28 ERA are the highest among pitchers with 70-plus IP this season. He’s been worse against lefties but is still yielding a 20% HR/FB ratio and .304 BAA in RvR matchups.
Didi Gregorius returns in the nick of time to potentially tee off on Nova, who is giving up a .358 BAA to lefties. Brett Gardner and Aaron Hicks also have potential in the LvR matchup. Gary Sanchez remains an elite play at catcher with tons of upside, and he’s been just as dangerous with 10 of his 20 HRs coming on the road. Gleyber Torres and Gio Urshela are both good Cash plays with the potential to cash in on RBI opportunities. Finally, note that potential leadoff man DJ LeMahieu is 6-for-9 in a limited sample against Nova.
Other stacks to consider: Red Sox vs. Adrian Sampson (Rangers), Dodgers vs. Jon Lester (Cubs)
Three Down for June 13, 2019
Pitcher To Fade
Zack Greinke at WAS ($9.3k DraftKings, $9.5k FanDuel)
The Nationals are cruising right along with the fourth-highest wOBA (.350) and fifth-most runs scored (75) over the last 14 days. Zack Greinke has been pitching well but is posting a lower swinging strike rate (9.3%) with a higher LD Rate (23.9%) than he did in his tumultuous 2018 campaign. His velocity has also dropped, and he’s averaging under 90 MPH on his fastball. He elicited a season-low 21.4% GB Rate in his last outing and coughed up a HR in each of his previous three outings. The Nationals recently added LHB Gerardo Parra, who is 15-for-50 (.300) in his career against Greinke. But Greinke has been more vulnerable in RvR matchups this year, which lines up perfectly for the heart of Washington’s order: Trea Turner, Howie Kendrick, and Anthony Rendon.
Hitter To Fade
David Peralta at WAS ($4.4k DraftKings, $3.8k FanDuel)
Nationals RHP Erick Fedde is not a particularly talented starter, but he knows how to avoid hard contact. Fedde is allowing only a 0.88 HR/9 ratio with an 18% LD Rate this season to post a solid 2.93 ERA. He’s allowing just a 21.1% hard contact rate and posting a 13.5 K/9 ratio against LHBs at home this season. Then, David Peralta is still working his way back from a shoulder injury and could disappoint in a perceived plus matchup against a RHP on the cheaper side of the board. Yet Fedde’s best pitch is a slider that rates 3.6 runs above average, and Peralta is posting his only negative rating (-3.1) this year against that pitch.
Stack To Fade
Mets vs. RHP Jack Flaherty (Cardinals)
Jack Flaherty has regressed after a stellar 2018 season, but he’s still a very talented young pitcher. In fact, Flaherty’s average velocity is higher on his fastball (94.4). And he’s posting a similar 81.8% Z-Contact Rate with a 12% swinging strike rate this year. The difference has been more hard contact and a 19.5% HR/FB ratio when facing lefties. Aside from Michael Conforto, the Mets have limited power from the left side of the plate, which is why they have a below-average 24 HRs in LvR matchups. Robinson Cano, Jed Lowrie, and Brandon Nimmo are all injured, leaving Jeff McNeil and Conforto as the sole LHBs about whom Flaherty should be truly concerned. He should be able to use the spacious confines of Citi Field to his advantage and post a Quality Start in a game with a modest 7.5-run Over/Under.