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mlb dfs picks

The MLB season is rolling, and there’s a great DFS slate on tap for Tuesday, 6/11/19. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests during the afternoon.

Note that some of these plays are recommended for Cash, and some are best reserved for GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.

Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when planning for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!

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Extra Inning: $10 entry, $250k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $50,000 to 1st!
Four Seamer: $4 entry, $45k guaranteed (DraftKings)
Rally: $9.99 entry, $110k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $20,000 to 1st!
Squeeze: $5.55 entry: $65k guaranteed (FanDuel)

Three Up for June 11, 2019

Best Pitchers

Chris Paddack at SF ($10.6k DraftKings, $9.3k FanDuel)

After a fantastic start to his career, Chris Paddack took a step back by coughing up 10 runs (9 ER) over two outings against the Yankees and Phillies. Most of that damage was done via the long ball, however, and now he’ll pitch at AT&T Park, which has the lowest HR Factor in the Majors. San Francisco has slugged a league-low 19 HRs with a meager .259 wOBA at home this season. The Giants rate a league-low -47.3 against fastballs per Brooks Baseball. Paddack throws his plus fastball (5.5 rating) 58.5% of the time. With an 11.2% swinging strike rate and 5.50 K/BB ratio, he should have no trouble bouncing back by attacking the Giants lineup.

Dakota Hudson at MIA ($6.2k DraftKings, $8.0k FanDuel)

While he likely won’t turn the tide in GPP formats, Dakota Hudson can provide a solid floor tonight at a very modest price tag. He draws most pitchers’ favorite matchup in Miami. The Marlins rank dead last in collective wOBA (.282) with the fourth-highest K-Rate (25.1%) against RHPs this year. Hudson has dealt with control issues and isn’t striking out many batters (1.45 K/BB ratio), but he’s posting a solid 75.6% strand rate and allowing a modest 18.6% LD rate this year. The Marlins have hit only 21 homers at home all season and are rocking an even weaker .272 wOBA at spacious Marlins Park. They also rank dead last with a -22.1 rating against sliders. Hudson leans on a slider that rates 1.4 runs above average per Brooks Baseball.

Other pitchers to consider: Trevor Bauer, Patrick Corbin, Kenta Maeda, Martin Perez, Mike Foltynewicz, Trent Thornton

Best Hitters

Kyle Schwarber at COL ($5.2k DraftKings, $3.9k FanDuel)

Always the unconventional manager, Joe Maddon is using Kyle Schwarber as an unconventional leadoff man in most matchups against RH starters. Schwarber is 13-for-31 with 3 HR, 3 doubles, and 4 BB during his current seven-game hitting streak and continues to make his manager look smart. Tonight he’ll face RHP Peter Lambert, who shined in his MLB debut against the Cubs. We’re willing to gamble on Schwarber and his teammates figuring out Lambert in a rematch at Coors Field. Lambert posted a 5.07 ERA with a 1.49 HR/9 ratio and allowed LHBs to hit .286 over 11 starts in the offense-friendly Pacific Coast League this spring. He is clearly less effective when conditions make it more difficult to lean on his plus curveball. That should be the circumstance tonight in the thin Colorado air, giving Schwarber a ceiling of 29.6 DraftKings points per models on FantasyLabs.

Marwin Gonzalez vs. SEA ($3.7k DraftKings, $2.9k FanDuel)

The Twins are a great stacking option tonight at home against RHP Mike Leake, but many of their top bats are too expensive to squeeze into the same lineup. Marwin Gonzalez is more reasonably priced and every bit as capable of thriving in this matchup. He’s 8-for-14 with a HR in his career against Leake, who has been extremely homer prone with a 3.00 HR/9 ratio on the road this year. Lefties are registering a 35% HR/FB ratio with a .356 wOBA in Leake’s road starts. Gonzalez is a switch hitter with a 45.2% hard contact rate in home starts against RHPs. Plus, he’s rocking a 16% HR/FB ratio overall at Target Field.

Other hitters to consider: Cody Bellinger, Anthony Rendon, Hunter Pence, Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz, DJ LeMahieu, Michael Chavis, Tim Anderson, Aaron Hicks, Kurt Suzuki, Ian Desmond, Victor Robles, Nick Castellanos, Ji-Man Choi, Gio Urshela

Best Stack

Nationals vs. LHP Manny Banuelos (White Sox)

The Nationals rank third in collective batting average (.283) and second in OBP (.359) against LHPs despite playing in the National League. Tonight they’ll get to throw another RHB into their lineup against vulnerable southpaw Manny Banuelos at U.S. Cellular Field. Banuelos has given up 27 ER over his last five starts and walked 14 batters over his last four outings. He’s posting a 3.00 HR/9 ratio and a 7.52 FIP in seven home starts and is unlikely to go deep into this ballgame. Therefore, note that the White Sox rank 22nd in bullpen ERA (4.82) on the year.

The Nats have several RHBs that crush lefties. They’re led by Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, and veteran Howie Kendrick. Young Victor Robles owns a .378 wOBA against LHP, and catcher Kurt Suzuki is hitting .320 against lefties. The Nats could use Suzuki or Yan Gomes at backstop, and both would be solid options. Juan Soto is actually posting a higher average (.288) with a comparable .876 OPS in LvL matchups this year. Finally, consider Brian Dozier as a low-cost option for GPP formats.

Other stacks to consider: Twins vs. Mike Leake (Mariners), Braves vs. Chris Archer (Pirates), Red Sox vs. Ariel Jurado (Rangers) 


Three Down for June 11, 2019

Pitcher To Fade

Jason Vargas at NYY ($7.6k DraftKings, $6.8k FanDuel)

Jason Vargas dominated the Giants’ weak lineup in his last start and stunned the Dodgers in a start on May 30. Yet his hot streak can’t be expected to continue tonight at Yankee Stadium. The Yanks send out a lineup chock-full of RHBs to face a LHP yielding a 58.7% hard contact rate on the road against righties. Vargas is posting a weak 7.4% swinging strike rate and his highest Z-Contact Rate (88.1%) since 2010. He’s 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA over his last two outings against the Yankees. Now, he’ll contend with red-hot RHBs in Gleyber Torres, Clint FrazierGio Urshela, and DJ LeMahieu.

Hitter To Fade

Nolan Arenado vs. CHC ($5.6k DraftKings, $4.7k FanDuel)

This is not to say the Rockies won’t produce offensively at Coors Field tonight, just that their top hitters could come up short of value on their mighty price tags. Specifically, Nolan Arenado could disappoint against Jose Quintana. The crafty southpaw owns an 87.9% Z-Contact Rate and 11.9% HR/FB ratio, which are both declining from his past two solid seasons. He’s struggled on the road but has missed bats to the tune of a 9.42 K/9 ratio in road starts. Quintana struck out 17 batters over his last two appearances at Coors (10.2 IP) and has 28 Ks over 94 plate appearances (29.8% K-Rate) against current Rockies. Arenado is 2-for-14 with both hits leaving the yard, but he could be more bust than boom if he fails to connect on a big fly. He is only projected to provide 2.4x salary returns on FanDuel according to models on FantasyLabs.

Stack To Fade

Diamondbacks vs. RHP Jake Arrieta (Phillies)

The D’Backs offense is deadly against lefties and just average against righties. Arizona ranks 20th in collective wOBA (.307) with a 23% K-Rate against RHPs this season. Current D’Backs are 26-for-104 (.250) in their careers against Jake Arrieta, with zero homers. That’s the key stat since Arrieta has been burned by lefties with a 2.67 HR/9 ratio against the platoon. At Philly’s Citizens Bank Park, however, Arrieta is posting a 0.56 HR/9 ratio against LHBs and holding RHBs to a meek 9.5% LD Rate. He should be able to contain David Peralta, Ketel Marte, and Eduardo Escobar, three talented lefties or switch hitters that form the heart of Arizona’s lineup.