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DFS Picks

We have a nine-game MLB DFS slate on Monday, 6/10/19 beginning at 7:05 p.m EDT. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests. Note that some of these plays are recommended for Cash, and some are best reserved for GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.

Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!

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Mon. Grand Slam: $55 entry, $100K guaranteed (FanDuel)- $20K to 1st!

Three Up for June 10, 2019

Best Pitcher

Chris Sale vs. TEX ($10.9k DraftKings, $11.8k FanDuel)

There are a couple of other appealing candidates at the top of the pitcher pool Monday, which I’ve listed below. However, I like Sale’s upside just slightly more than the other two given both his immense strikeout upside and his matchup. The towering lefty has back-to-back double-digit strikeout games and has accomplished that feat on seven occasions this season. He’s also stymied current Rangers hitters to the tune of a collective .168/.223/.283 line over 173 career at-bats while racking up 66 strikeouts.

Outside of his 2-7 record, Sale shows impressive metrics across the board. This includes an average exit velocity allowed of only 89.0 mph, a modest barrel percentage of 7.3 percent on his batted-ball events and a 14.6 percent swinging strike rate. Then, the Rangers have been mostly punchless against lefties on the road this season, and they’ve had considerable trouble with contact rate. Texas sports a .288 wOBA and 31.5 percent strikeout rate in 2019 against southpaws when traveling.

Given his recent performances, massive upside and the matchup, I consider Sale excellent for cash games or GPPs on Monday.

Other pitchers to consider: Hyun-Jin Ryu (at LAA), Charlie Morton (vs. OAK), Masahiro Tanaka (vs. NYM), Sandy Alcantara (vs. STL)

Best Hitter

Jose Abreu vs. WAS ($4.2k DraftKings, $3.9k FanDuel)

Abreu is somewhat quietly putting together another rock-solid campaign. His 52 RBI were tops in the AL heading into Sunday, while his 16 homers also ranked in the top 10. His prices are reasonable on both sites given his upside. Plus, he draws a particularly enticing matchup Monday. Abreu has punished Nationals starter Anibal Sanchez for a .500/.517/.846 line over 29 career plate appearances, and five of his 13 hits against Sanchez have gone for extra bases (three doubles, two homers).

That sample includes a 2-for-4 showing last Wednesday in Nationals Park, where Abreu hit one of his two career round-trippers off Sanchez. Then, while Abreu is having a down year against righties overall, it’s worth noting 15 of his 16 homers this season have come off that handedness. He’s been partly victimized against them at home by an artificially low .193 BABIP. That metric belies a solid 20.0 percent line-drive rate and a 41.5 percent hard-contact rate against righties at Guaranteed Rate Field.

Finally, Abreu performs very well against Sanchez’s signature four-seam fastball. He hits it for a .358 wOBA, and Sanchez allows a .364 wOBA when throwing it. The Nationals bullpen also lines up nicely as a matchup for Abreu. They’ve surrendered a Majors-high 7.67 ERA, 26 extra-base hits (13 doubles, 13 homers) and a .341 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the road this season.

Other hitters to consider: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Tony Wolters (vs. CHC), Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, David Bote (all at COL), Gregory Polanco, Adam Frazier, Starling Marte, Josh Bell (all at ATL), Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi, Yandy Diaz (all vs. OAK), Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, J.T. Realmuto (all vs. ARI), Cameron Maybin, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez (all vs. Mets)

Best Stack

Dodgers at LAA (RHP Griffin Canning)   

The Dodgers may not be the first team that comes to mind when looking at potential stacks Monday. After all, Angels starter Griffin Canning has been impressive overall in his rookie season. Yet a combination of the Blue Crew’s metrics against right-handed pitching — including on the road — and Canning’s level of competition so far reveals an opportunity for the Dodgers’ offense.

The Dodgers sport a .331 wOBA and respectable 19.7 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching on the road over the last month, along with an impressive 26.4 percent line-drive rate and a 39.1 percent hard-contact rate. They’ve been even hotter over the last two weeks, as evidenced by a .340 road wOBA and 16.0 percent road whiff rate versus that handedness. Then, Canning has enjoyed a favorable schedule overall, facing the likes of the Blue Jays, Tigers, Orioles, Royals, and the potent but inconsistent A’s, twice. All five clubs rank in the bottom half of the Majors in wOBA versus right-handed pitching. Toronto, Detroit, and Baltimore are in the bottom five.

Canning has been effective against either side of the plate although he has yielded a. 279 average and .337 wOBA to right-handed hitters at home. That makes the likes of Enrique Hernandez, Austin Barnes, Justin Turner, and Chris Taylor interesting if in the lineup. Then, righty mashers Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, and Alex Verdugo also have appeal in their own right from the left side.

Finally, the current state of the Angels’ bullpen is worth considering when evaluating the Dodgers. Angels relievers have been among both the most overworked and ineffective over the last week of play. They’ve worked the second-most innings (41.2) while producing a 6.26 ERA and .380 wOBA over that span.

Other stacks to consider: Rockies (vs. CHC), Cubs (vs. COL), PIT (at ATL), Rays (vs. OAK), Phillies (vs. ARI), Yankees (vs. Mets)


Three Down for June 10, 2019

Pitcher To Fade

Kevin Gausman vs. PIT ($6.4k DraftKings, $6k FanDuel)   

Gausman is another pitcher I feel could certainly run into trouble Monday, even against a so-so offense such as the Pirates. The veteran right-hander has trended clearly in the wrong direction over his last two starts. Gausman allowed a combined 15 earned runs in them. He’s allowed a 5.97 ERA overall at home while generating a poor 53.1 percent strand rate. He’s also given up five earned runs or more in four starts this season.

Meanwhile, the Pirates offense has picked up the pace recently versus righties on the road. Pittsburgh sports a .273 average and .320 wOBA against that handedness when traveling over the last month, including a .285 average and .340 wOBA over the last two weeks. The recent return of Corey Dickerson has the potential to afford the Pittsburgh lineup some more firepower. Meanwhile, the trio of Josh Bell, Gregory Polanco, and Starling Marte is highly capable of doing damage.

Hitter To Fade

Elvis Andrus at BOS ($4.6k DraftKings, $3.5k FanDuel)

Rarely will you see Andrus saddled with a fade designation, particularly this season. The veteran shortstop is arguably on a career tear, as evidenced by his .303/.342/.462 line. However, Monday is one of those days where your money is likely better spent elsewhere. Andrus will be up against Chris Sale. What’s more, his track record versus the southpaw is downright dismal: a .143/.194/.214 line across 31 career encounters. That sample includes seven strikeouts and just a pair of extra-base hits (two doubles).

Sale boasts a .193 BAA, .277 wOBA, 0.97 WHIP and hefty 13.1 K/9 against right-handed bats overall this season as well. In turn, Andrus has been stymied by left-handed pitching outside of his home park. He sports a .152 average, .193 wOBA, and zero extra-base hits across 37 plate appearances versus southpaws when traveling. Given the multiple factors that line up against him Monday, I see Andrus as a rare fade candidate.

Stack To Fade

Mets at NYY (RHP Masahiro Tanaka)   

Tanaka will return from the paternity list Monday to start for the Yankees in the Subway Series, and his consistency makes the Mets a fade for me. Tanaka has given up four earned runs or fewer in 11 of his 13 starts. He’s been particularly sharp at Yankee Stadium, allowing a 3.02 ERA, .309 wOBA, and 3.58 xFIP there. The Mets have also been a middling team against right-handed pitching on the road all season. They sport a .299 wOBA and -17.3 wRAA against that handedness outside of Citi Field.

Narrowing the focus down to just the last month, the numbers remain largely the same. New York has the same .299 wOBA during that stretch against righties on the road, along with a 23.6 percent strikeout rate. Then, it’s worth noting Tanaka has been especially tough against right-handed hitters at home, yielding just a .222 average and .279 wOBA while generating a 25.5 percent strikeout rate. That spells potential trouble for the heart of the Mets’ offense: Wilson Ramos, Pete Alonso, Todd Frazier, and Amed Rosario.

Finally, the Mets’ outlook is further dampened by the recent effectiveness of the Yankees bullpen at home. Yanks relievers boast a 3.09 ERA, .219 BAA and .284 wOBA allowed at the Stadium over the last month of play.

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