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MLB DFS picks

We have a 14-game MLB DFS slate on Friday, 6/7/19 beginning at 7:05 p.m EDT. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests. Note that some of these plays are recommended for Cash, and some are best reserved for GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.

Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!

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Extra Inning: $10 entry, $200k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $50k to 1st!
Medium 8s: $88 entry, $250k guaranteed (DraftKings)- $50K to 1st!
Fri. Rally: $9.99 entry, $110k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $20K to 1st!
Fri. Grand Slam: $55 entry, $100K guaranteed (FanDuel)- $20K to 1st!

Three Up for June 7, 2019

Best Pitcher

Mike Soroka at MIA ($11.6k DraftKings, $10.8k FanDuel)

Soroka already stymied the Marlins once this season in their pitcher-friendly home park. The dynamic rookie threw seven innings of three-hit ball against Miami back on May 4, allowing just a pair of unearned runs. Despite the Marlins’ recent unexpected offensive blowout against the Brewers, the matchup is still an excellent one for Soroka on Friday. Miami sports a .280 wOBA, .105 ISO, -26.0 wRAA and 25.8 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching at home for the season.

Soroka counters with an even better track record on the road than in his home park. He boasts a 1.10 ERA, .162 BAA and .214 wOBA across 32.2 road frames. He’s allowed just a single homer on the year. He also owns a 3.40 xFIP and modest 28.1 percent hard-contact rate allowed when traveling. What’s more, Soroka has rattled off seven consecutive quality starts and has held current Miami bats to a collective .220/.273/.268 line across 41 total at-bats. Marlins Park also works in Soroka’s favor Friday. The stadium checks into Friday with a bottom-10 run factor (0.857) and the fourth-lowest home-run factor (0.690) in the bigs.

Given his consistency this season and unflappable performances on the road, Soroka is a solid cash or GPP option.

Other pitchers to consider: Domingo German (at CLE), Jacob deGrom (vs. COL), Marcus Stroman (vs. ARI), Gerrit Cole (vs. BAL), Brandon Woodruff (vs. PIT), Andrew Heaney (vs. SEA), Clayton Kershaw (at SFG)

Best Hitter

Adalberto Mondesi vs. CWS  ($5.5k DraftKings, $3.9k FanDuel)

As usual, there’s no shortage of appealing bats on a mammoth Friday night slate. The switch-hitting Mondesi taking his hacks against the struggling Ivan Nova is one prominent example. Mondesi has been at his best hitting from the left side. Meanwhile, Nova, as has been the case throughout his career, has been hit hard by lefty bats all season. The veteran right-hander will check into Friday’s matchup with a .360 BAA and .409 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters, figures partly consisting of 19 extra-base hits.

Mondesi boasts a .406 wOBA, .253 ISO and 39.1 percent hard-contact rate against right-handed pitching at Kauffman Stadium. He’s laced a double in two career encounters with Nova and also happens to thrive against the righty’s most frequently thrown pitch, the sinker. While Nova is surrendering a .322 average and .380 wOBA when throwing the pitch this season, Mondesi has a .400 average and .512 wOBA against it.

Finally, Mondesi will also be locked into a good matchup upon Nova’s exit from the game, as White Sox relievers have allowed a .332 wOBA on the road over the last month of play, including a .362 figure (and 7.71 ERA) over the last week in a 32-batter road sample. Given all the factors in his favor Friday and his strong season thus far, I chalk up Mondesi as a viable cash or GPP play Friday.

Other hitters to consider: Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Ozzie Albies (all at MIA), Max Muncy, Enrique Hernandez, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, David Freese (all at SFG), Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, Matt Adams, Howie Kendrick (at SDP), David Fletcher, Mike Trout, Jonathan Lucroy, Shohei Ohtani, Tommy La Stella (all vs. SEA), Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez (vs. TAM), Ryan O’Hearn, Alex Gordon (vs. CWS), *all Astros hitters vs. BAL mentioned below*

Best Stack

Astros vs. BAL (RHP Gabriel Ynoa) 

The Astros draw one of the best matchups of the night against a highly questionable starter in Gabriel Ynoa and an equally shaky bullpen. Houston will also be back in its home park after a six-game road trip, where they’ve amassed a .351 wOBA and 23.9 wRAA against right-handed pitching this season. Granted, they’ll still be missing the powerful trio of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer due to injury, but Houston still packs plenty of punch in the form of Yuli Gurriel, Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick, and Michael Brantley, among others.

Meanwhile, Ynoa walks into Friday’s matchup allowing a 6.52 ERA, .310 average and .370 wOBA on the road. He’s particularly had trouble against right-handed hitters all season. This makes Gurriel, Bregman, Robinson Chirinos and Jake Marisnick especially appealing components of a potential stack. Ynoa is yielding a massive .357 average, .421 wOBA and 2.08 HR/9 to righty bats. However, consider Reddick and Brantley to be firmly in play as well, factoring in that Ynoa is allowing a 64.7 percent hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters on the road.

Then, Houston bats will have just as bright an outlook when Ynoa exits. Orioles relievers have been among the poorest in the Majors all season and will head into Friday with a 5.43 ERA, .351 wOBA and Majors-high 22 home runs allowed on the road this season.

Other stacks to consider: Dodgers (at SFG), Nationals (at SDP), Angels (vs. SEA), Red Sox (vs. TAM)


Three Down for June 7, 2019

Pitcher To Fade

Nick Margevicius vs. WAS ($6.3k DraftKings, $5.9k FanDuel)   

Margevicius has consistently been a poor DFS option this season, despite his modest prices. The combination of his inability to go deep into games, mediocre strikeout upside and penchant for pitching to contact make him a stay-away candidate. That’s once again the case Friday when he’ll face a Nationals squad that’s been very good versus lefties on the road. Washington checks into Friday with a solid .281 average and .336 wOBA against southpaws when traveling. Meanwhile, Margevicius comes in with a 7.09 ERA, .318 BAA, .415 wOBA, and 5.40 xFIP across 26.2 home frames.

As those numbers imply, the young lefty has been hit hard by all comers at what is normally a pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Margevicius’ biggest issues have actually come in same-handed matchups. He’s yielded a .353 average and .481 wOBA to 38 lefty bats at home and a .349 average and .451 wOBA to the 67 same-handed hitters he’s encountered overall this season. That could spell trouble against the lefty-hitting trio of Matt Adams, Juan Soto, and Adam Eaton, with the latter two carrying wOBAs of .390 and .391, respectively, in same-handed matchups on the road. The collection of powerful right-handed hitters in Washington’s lineup — Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon among them — could also make Margevicius’ life miserable, considering he’s yielded a bloated 27.6 percent line-drive rate to that handedness at home.

Hitter To Fade

Miguel Sano at DET ($4k DraftKings, $3.4k FanDuel)

Sano has been solid since returning from the injured list. However, he’ll face an uphill battle to turn in a productive outing Friday. Sano will run into Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd, who’s stymied him to the tune of a .115/.148/.269 line across 27 career plate appearances. What’s more, that sample includes 15 strikeouts. Boyd has been tough on right-handed bats overall, holding them to a .217 average and .268 wOBA while striking them out at a 30.7 percent clip.

In turn, Sano is struggling against southpaws in the early going. He’s managed just a .176 average against that handedness while striking out in half of his 20 plate appearances versus lefties. Looking at a larger 2018 sample, he posted a .186 average and .279 wOBA while striking out at a 37.0 percent clip against left-handed pitching. And Boyd could well back Sano into a corner with his second-most-thrown pitch, the slider. Boyd has allowed an anemic .225 wOBA and amassed a massive 40.7 percent strikeout rate with the offering. In turn, Sano has a .290 wOBA and 40.0 percent whiff rate when facing it this year and a .244 wOBA and 46.9 percent strikeout rate against it for his career.

Stack To Fade

Rockies at Mets (RHP Jacob deGrom)   

The Rockies are unsurprisingly a less potent offense outside of Coors Field. That’s been true of their work against right-handed pitching on the road this season and in career encounters with Mets starter Jacob deGrom. Colorado bats own a collective .167/.189/.231 line against deGrom over 108 at-bats. That sample includes just four extra-base hits (two doubles, one triple, one home run) and 28 strikeouts. The Rockies will also check into Friday with a .289 wOBA (second lowest in the NL), -20.8 wRAA and 24.6 percent strikeout rate against righties on the road this season. And while they’ve been a bit better against that handedness outside of Coors over the last month, their strikeout rate against road righties has bumped up further to 25.3 percent during that stretch.

Then, while deGrom does still have a higher ERA at home (4.18) than on the road (3.02), there are several other encouraging metrics he’s producing at Citi Field. One is his .219 BAA; another is his elite 34.3 percent strikeout rate against righty bats. That’s especially relevant when considering Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story and Ian Desmond are among the most dangerous hitters in Colorado’s lineup. Also worth noting when considering a Rockies fade is the fact deGrom has produced three straight solid starts and has quality starts in five of his last seven trips to the mound.

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