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NBA DFS Picks

Welcome to the Friday, June 7 edition of the NBA Best Bets column. Here, I’ll strive to identify one NBA bet for tonight’s Raptors-Warriors matchup I feel has profit potential at DraftKings SportsbookFanDuel Sportsbook888 Sportsbook, and BetStars Sportsbook.

Depending on the circumstance, I’ll hone in on moneylines, point spreads, or projected totals. Sometimes I may even touch on multiple metrics. Then, I’ll take you on a fairly deep dive as to why.

Please note we’ll be referencing only legal, regulated sportsbook betting odds and totals here at PlayPicks. A “pick” is a wager that, as of the time of this writing, we feel confident recommending. A “lean” is a wager we favor over the other side. This play could end up on our card with the release of additional information.

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Postseason record:

ATS Leans/Picks: 7-4 (.636)
Moneyline: 3-4 (.429)
Over/Under: 3-5 (.375)

NBA finals series results:

  • May 30: Raptors 118, Warriors 109 (Scotiabank Arena)
  • June 2: Warriors 109, Raptors 104 (Scotiabank Arena)
  • June 5: Raptors 123, Warriors 109 (Oracle Arena)

6/7/19 NBA Betting Pick:

Toronto Raptors (58-24 reg. season, 13-7 postseason) vs. Golden State Warriors (57-25 reg. season, 13-6 postseason)

DraftKings Sportsbook Odds: Warriors -4.5 (o/u: 216.5)
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: Warriors -4.5 (o/u: 216.0)
888 Sportsbook Odds: Warriors -4.5 (o/u: 216.5)
BetStars Sportsbook Odds: Warriors -4.5 (o/u: 216.0)

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The Breakdown

In our Game 3 preview, we deemed the projected total modest for two teams that had clearly loosened their offenses and picked up the pace in Game 2. However, that outlook was heavily influenced by the belief that Klay Thompson (hamstring) would find his way back for the contest. Ultimately, Thompson was active in name only, but no matter. The two squads still combined for 232 points to easily blow past the projected 212.5-213 figure that was available at several New Jersey sportsbooks at the time the article was written.

For a second straight game, the Raptors and Warriors upped the number of total possessions over the prior contest. Game 3 saw them hit a new series high of 105.0. That followed respective totals of 98.0 and 104.6 in Games 1 and 2. Another increase could well be in the cards for Friday’s Game 4. Not only has Toronto proven willing and able to run the floor consistently, but Golden State naturally figures to play to its strengths in what amounts to a desperation game for them. The fact that Thompson, who reportedly pushed hard to play Wednesday but was overruled by the training staff, is officially considered probable also ups the chances of the Warriors playing a tick faster.

Both teams have already demonstrated the ability to pile up points against the other. What’s more, each has done it with both top-heavy scoring and more balanced efforts. Wednesday, it was the Raptors who gave Kawhi Leonard significant help for a change. All five members of the starting five managed to hit double digits in the scoring column. That allowed Leonard, who once again proved a virtual lock for 30 points by hitting that mark for the 13th time this postseason, to pare down his shot attempts to a reasonable 17 across 38 minutes.

Danny Green continued to shoot very well from distance against the Warriors. He drained six treys overall for a postseason-high 18 points. Marc Gasol bounced back from a poor Game 2 to frequently outmaneuver the mobility-challenged DeMarcus Cousins down low. Kyle Lowry made good on his vow to be more aggressive and drained five long-range buckets himself. And Pascal Siakam erased the memory of a 5-for-18 shooting nightmare in Game 2 to produce 18 points on a 50.0 success rate from the floor.

On the other end, any semblance of balance for the defending champs went out the window with Thompson and Kevin Durant (calf) both sitting. Moreover, Cousins was unable to come close to his 11-point, 10-rebound, six-assist effort from Game 2. That put almost everything on Stephen Curry’s capable shoulders. The good news is that he responded in stellar fashion. Curry racked up a career-playoff-high 47 points and shot 42.9 percent from three-point range despite having a heap of defensive attention on him. Thompson’s return should certainly help ease some of that burden Friday. However, the other takeaway when evaluating the chances of the Over hitting is that Curry could be even harder to stop with the stakes just a bit higher and the Raps having to worry about his fellow Splash Bro — and not Shaun Livingston — alongside him in the backcourt.

It wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to see both Draymond Green and Cousins bounce back with better performances, either. Green actually had a rock-solid 17 points, seven rebounds, four assists and two steals across 41 minutes. But the do-it-all forward did concede he needed to have produced more early to help Curry. Then, Cousins undoubtedly has the ability to shoot better than 1-for-7, as he did in Game 3. A resurgent effort Friday is likely. The domino effect of Thompson’s expected presence likely to trickle down throughout the first unit.

By The Numbers

The Over is 26-23-1 (53.1 percent) in the Raptors’ away games this regular season and postseason, including 12-8 (60.0 percent) in their games as road underdogs. It’s also 18-15 (54.5 percent) in Toronto’s non-conference games this season and postseason, 39-31-1 (57.7 percent) in games following a Raptors win and 34-28-1 (54.8 percent) in games Toronto has played with one day of rest.

Then, the Over is 12-7 (63.2 percent) in the Warriors’ postseason games this season. The Over is also 18-15 (54.5 percent) in Golden State’s non-conference games this season and postseason.

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The Final Word

The defending champs usually respond well to adversity. It appears they’ll have a key reinforcement in Thompson back to aid that cause Friday. Even without the usual firepower on Golden State’s side, the two teams have managed to rack up the points. The projected total Friday represents just a modest bump over that of Game 3. Given Thompson’s projected return for Game 4, I see the number being exceeded rather comfortably. I also lean toward a Warriors win to even the series.

The Lean: Warriors moneyline

The Pick: Over 216.0