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Corbin

The MLB season is rolling, and there’s a great DFS slate on tap for Thursday, 6/6/19. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests during the afternoon.

Note that some of these plays are recommended for Cash, and some are best reserved for GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.

Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when planning for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!

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Three Up for June 6, 2019

Best Pitchers

Patrick Corbin at SD ($10.3k DraftKings, $10.9k FanDuel)

Targeting a starting pitcher after he gets shelled can be a great way to gain an edge in GPP formats. That’s a strategy to consider tonight by deploying Nationals LHP Patrick Corbin after he was knocked around for 8 runs (6 ER) over 2.2 IP at Cincy last Friday. Now Corbin starts at pitcher-friendly Petco Park against a Padres offense that ranks dead last in collective batting average (.217) with the third-highest K-Rate (27.2%) against LHPs this year. San Diego is posting the second-highest K-Rate (26.1%) overall these past two weeks and ranks 27th in the Majors (-16.1 runs below average) when facing sliders.

Corbin’s slider rated a league-best 27 runs above average last year and is still rated highly (7.8 above average) this year. He’s rocking a 10.17 K/9 ratio on the road. And his 1.93 HR/9 ratio in road starts should be much less of a factor at the ballpark with the second-lowest HR Factor in the Majors. Corbin is by far the highest-rated SP on DraftKings tonight on FantasyLabs with a 7.77 projected plus/minus and ceiling of 43.6 DK points.

Other pitchers to consider: Trevor Bauer, J.A. Happ

Best Hitters

Renato Núñez at TEX ($5.2k DraftKings, $3.6k FanDuel)

Making contact against Rangers RHP Ariel Jurado is an easy task. The second-year man owns a 93.5% Z-Contact Rate that would be the highest in Majors this season if he had enough innings to qualify. Jurado was even worse last year with a 95.6% Z-Contact Rate, and he’s posting a measly 4.8% swinging strike rate in his career. There are plenty of Orioles to consider in this matchup, with Renato Núñez atop the list. Núñez is rocking a team-high 42.9% hard contact rate, and he’s been red hot lately with a .495 wOBA and 218 wRC+ so far in June. Righties are 17-for-65 (.279) with 3 XBH and 3 HR off Jurado this year. Jurado is yielding a 20% HR/FB ratio at home against RHB and remains vulnerable at the launching pad known as Rangers Ballpark.

Shohei Ohtani vs. OAK ($3.9k DraftKings, $3.5k FanDuel)

Athletics RHP Mike Fiers has generally excelled in home starts this year, even recording a no-hitter on May 7 against the lowly Reds. But he’s posting a rough 6.39 ERA with a 2.12 HR/9 ratio and 6.08 FIP on the road. The Angels are worth stacking consideration tonight at home and have a few lefties that could tee off on Fiers, including Shohei Ohtani. The prolific switch hitter got a late start to his season following Tommy John surgery, but he’s regaining his power stroke with homers in consecutive games, and is seriously underpriced on DraftKings. Fiers is coughing up a 27.3% HR/FB ratio on the road against LHBs, and Ohtani has posted a 40% HR/FB ratio with a 56.3% hard contact rate against RHPs at home. He has a ceiling of 25 DK points tonight per FantasyLabs.

Other hitters to consider: Gary Sanchez, Shin-Soo Choo, Luke Voit, Kole Calhoun, Logan Forsythe, Matt Chapman, Aaron Hicks, Tommy La Stella, Gio Urshela, Ramon Laureano

Best Stack

Yankees vs. RHP Edwin Jackson (Blue Jays)

This is a truly juicy spot for the slugging Yankees against a washed-up, 35-year-old pitcher. Granted one of his starts came at Coors Field, but RHP Edwin Jackson has coughed up 22 ER over his last three outings to post an unsightly 13.22 ERA and 7.93 FIP this season. He’s coughing up a 28.6% HR/FB ratio, and the Yankees rank fourth with a 20.4% HR/FB ratio over the last 14 days. Since RHBs have accounted for all six homers off Jackson this season with a 50% HR/FB ratio, Gary Sanchez is clearly an elite play at catcher. Sanchez owns a 31% HR/FB ratio in road games and has slugged 6 HR off Blue Jays pitching since 2016. Just be wary if his bruised wrist appears to hamper his performance on Wednesday night.

Then, Gleyber Torres has been more effective in RvR matchups and owns a 26.5% HR/FB ratio in road games. Gio Urshela has been a fantastic Cash play with his ability to convert on RBI opportunities, and DJ LeMahieu will be worth a look if leading off. Luke Voit has a chance to go deep, while Clint Frazier and Aaron Hicks are good mid-tier options to consider in the outfield. You can even throw in Yanks SP J.A. Happ as a member of this stack since he should get ample run support with his team heavily favored.

Other stacks to consider: Rangers vs. David Hess (Orioles)

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Three Down for June 6, 2019

Pitcher To Fade

Jose Berrios at CLE ($9.7k DraftKings, $9.3k FanDuel)

While Jose Berrios dominated the Indians with 10 Ks over 7.2 scoreless innings earlier this season, he faces a much bigger challenge this time around. Cleveland has gone from one of the worst offensive teams in the Majors to a team that ranks 10th in collective wOBA (.337) with the fifth-lowest K-Rate (18.2%) over the last 10 days. Jose Ramirez has snapped out of his funk, and Francisco Lindor (5-for-17 lifetime against Berrios) is healthy. Berrios coughed up 4 ER over 4 IP in his last trip to Progressive Field in 2018, and he’s been slightly more vulnerable with a 3.86 ERA and 1.45 HR/9 ratio on the road this year. To cap it off, he’s unlikely to receive much run support with Indians ace Trevor Bauer going in a game that has been assigned an 8.5 total.

Hitter To Fade

C.J. Cron at CLE ($4.6k DraftKings, $3.3k FanDuel)

It seems absurd to pay up for some of the Twins’ most costly hitters when they’re facing a true ace tonight. While Trevor Bauer is not getting the same positive results from his slider this year, he’s dominated RHBs with it. Righties are hitting .160 with a 31.3% K-Rate and 0.88 HR/9 ratio off Bauer this season. Cron has been far less dangerous with a .248 average and 24.2% K-Rate in RvR matchups and owns a -11.8 net rating in his career against sliders. Bauer throws his plus slider or curveball on over 30% of his deliveries this year.

Stack To Fade

Nationals vs. LHP Joey Lucchesi (Padres)

While the Nationals have plus splits against LHPs this season, they might not find much production at Petco Park tonight. Joey Lucchesi is posting a 2.61 ERA with a 56.5% GB Rate at home and struck out 22 batters while posting three consecutive Quality Starts to end May. Trea Turner was the hero last night, but he’s posting a 54.5% GB Rate on the road this season and could have trouble setting the table. Washington actually ranks 26th in collective hard contact rate (33.8%) against LHPs, and the Nats rank 22nd in hard contact rate (35.1%) over the last 14 days overall. Lucchesi struggled a bit in start at Washington on April 28 but has since bounced back with a .165 BAA and a minuscule 8.6% LD Rate during May despite facing the elite Dodgers and the Rockies at Coors Field.