The MLB season is rolling, and there’s a great DFS slate on tap for Wednesday, 6/5/19. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests during the afternoon.
Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.
Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when planning for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!
BEST MLB DFS TOURNAMENTS FOR 6/5/19
Wednesday Web Gem: $15 entry, $200k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $50,000 to 1st!
Four Seamer: $4 entry, $40k guaranteed (DraftKings)
Rally: $9.99 entry, $100k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $20,000 to 1st!
Squeeze: $4.44 entry: $60k guaranteed (FanDuel)
Three Up for June 5, 2019
Charlie Morton at DET ($11.6k DraftKings, $10.4k FanDuel)
This slate appears very clear in terms of which expensive SP to target in GPP and Cash lineups. Sale is the best GPP play on DraftKings with the second-highest K/9 ratio (12.91) in the Majors while Charlie Morton is your rock-solid Cash option. The Rays are willing to ride Morton for over 100 pitches in close games, and tonight’s contest should be low scoring (8.5 run line) with solid RHP Spencer Turnbull going for host Detroit. Don’t expect much offense from Detroit, which ranks dead last among A.L. teams in wOBA (.283) with the highest K-Rate (26.4%) against RHPs this season. With a career-high 12.6% swinging strike rate and 11.09 K/9 ratio, Morton is flashing enough upside to justify his price tag. He’s been even more reliable with a 1.88 ERA and .175 BAA on the road. Finally, the Tigers have scored a league-low 90 runs at home this season.
Chris Sale at KC ($10.6k DraftKings, $11.5k FanDuel)
There has to be some frustration built up for Sale, who is now 1-7 despite pitching very well over his last 8 outings. He’s been undone by the long ball with a career-high 16.4% HR/FB ratio but faces a power-deficient Royals team at spacious Kauffman Stadium tonight. KC ranks 28th in collective wOBA (.282) and HR/FB ratio (9.5%) against LHPs this year. Additionally, the Royals have the seventh-highest K-Rate (26.9%) in RvL matchups. Current Royals have a 34.5% K-Rate over 204 career at-bats against Sale. Also, note that three of Sale’s rough outings have come in unusual day games. By contrast, he’s rocking a 2.86 ERA, .180 BAA, and 12.89 K/9 ratio at night.
Other pitchers to consider: Mike Minor, German Marquez, Martin Perez, Jimmy Nelson
Christian Yelich vs. MIA ($6.0k DraftKings, $4.9k FanDuel)
A Brewers stack should begin and end with reigning N.L. MVP Christian Yelich tonight. Marlins RHP Sandy Alcantara is dead last among qualified pitchers with a 5.65 Skill Interactive ERA (SIERA) this year. He owns a 4.66 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in his career away from Marlins Park. Alcantara’s struggles have been due to a lack of control with a 6.06 BB/9 ratio in those outings. Milwaukee ranks third in the N.L. with a collective .341 wOBA and is second in the MLB with 56 HRs at home this year. Yelich is slashing a ridiculous .418/.507/1.145 in home games against RHPs. He’s rocking a .639 wOBA and 305 wRC+ so far in June and is red hot at the right time for a plus matchup.
Myles Straw at SEA ($3.9k DraftKings, $2.3k FanDuel)
With the Astros lineup depleted by injuries, we’ve glimpsed some of their most exciting prospects. Myles Straw broke onto the scene with 3 hits, 3 SB, and 3 runs in a win at Oakland on Sunday and earned a start the next day in Seattle. He should be in the lineup tonight against RHP Mike Leake, who is yielding a 2.59 HR/9 ratio with a 6.17 FIP and 44.7% hard contact rate in RvR matchups. Straw went 14-for-14 on SB attempts off RHPs in the Minors this year and possesses fantastic upside on DK due to his speed.
Other hitters to consider: Josh Bell, Jorge Polanco, Rafael Devers, Byron Buxton, Bryan Reynolds, Nelson Cruz, Jesus Aguilar, Kole Calhoun, Gregory Polanco, David Fletcher, Ronald Guzman, Mallex Smith, Mike Tauchman
Twins vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco (Indians)
Carlos Carrasco has been a disaster with 11 ER allowed over his last two starts. Now, he’ll face the hottest team in baseball. Minnesota leads the Majors with a collective .374 wOBA and 53 HRs over the past month. Carrasco is coughing up his highest HR/FB ratio (20%) since his rookie season and is giving up a 2.73 HR/9 ratio at home this year.
Carrasco was tagged for 6 ER on 10 hits in a start at Minnesota in late March and allowed the bottom of Minnesota’s order to do the bulk of the damage. Even those hitters are pricey now that the Twins are rolling, but Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop, and Byron Buxton are all very appealing against a RHP coughing up a 48.3% hard contact rate in home starts. Carrasco’s yielding a 33.3% HR/FB ratio to LHBs at home, so consider paying up for Jorge Polanco or Max Kepler. Finally, if Jason Castro draws the start behind the plate, he could offer great upside at a thin position.
Other stacks to consider: Brewers vs. Sandy Alcantara (Marlins), Pirates vs. Kevin Gausman (Braves), Cardinals vs. Anthony DeSclafani (Reds)
Three Down for June 5, 2019
Pitcher To Fade
James Paxton at TOR ($11.3k DraftKings, $10.0k FanDuel)
This is a fantastic matchup for James Paxton against a struggling Blue Jays offense. Yet there are huge concerns about his workload that make him virtually unplayable in DFS contests. The Yankees limited Paxton to 66 pitches over four shutout innings in his first start off the Injured List last Wednesday. He could be allowed to toss closer to 80 pitches tonight, but that may not be enough to meet value. Paxton has posted a .339 BAA and 7.20 ERA over three road starts this year. The Blue Jays are strikeout-prone but own a more modest 24.4% K-Rate against LHPs this year. Finally, note that Toronto’s starting a promising rookie in Trent Thornton. Thornton has given up a ton of hard contact to LHBs but matches up rather well against the Yankees’ righty-heavy lineup.
Hitter To Fade
Gary Sanchez at TOR ($5.6k DraftKings, $4.3k FanDuel)
As mentioned above, Thornton has been far more effective against RHBs this season. He’s coughing up the second-highest LD Rate (29.6%) overall but is holding righties to a more modest 23.3% LD Rate. He’s only giving up an 8.8% HR/FB ratio against RHBs and certainly has upside with an 11.17 K/9 ratio at Rogers Centre. Gary Sanchez is sporting a ridiculous 30.5% HR/FB ratio but only a 19.1% LD Rate on the road in RvR matchups. As a team, the Yanks are posting the second-lowest LD Rate (17.7%) against RHPs over the last 14 days. They might be a stack to fade tonight. Plus, other catchers might surpass Sanchez in scoring.
Stack To Fade
Rangers vs. LHP John Means (Orioles)
The Rangers have scored an A.L.-best 169 runs at home this season but continue to struggle against lefties. They rank 23rd in collective batting average (.236) with the third-highest K-Rate (27.2%) against southpaws this year. Orioles lefty John Means has righted the ship after a disastrous rookie campaign and is rocking a solid 2.80 ERA with a 41.7% GB Rate this year. Keeping the ball on the ground allowed him to post decent numbers at Coors Field last month, and he’ll need to be sharp to avoid giving up any bombs at Globe Life Ballpark this evening. Lefties are hitting .178 with a meager 6.7% LD Rate off Means this year, so the Rangers’ lefty-heavy lineup could struggle.