The MLB season is rolling, and there’s a great DFS slate on tap for Thursday, 5/30/19. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests during the afternoon.
Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.
Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when planning for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!
BEST MLB DFS TOURNAMENTS FOR 5/30/19
Thursday Slugfest: $16 entry, $200k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $50,000 to 1st!
Four Seamer: $4 entry, $35k guaranteed (DraftKings)
Rally: $9.99 entry, $115k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $20,000 to 1st!
Squeeze: $4.44 entry: $60k guaranteed (FanDuel)
Three Up for May 30, 2019
Chris Sale at NYY ($10.8k DraftKings, $11.2k FanDuel)
I was on the fence about Chris Sale as an elite option tonight, and then I saw his price tag on DraftKings. The lefty ace has dramatic upside relative to his modest cost in a matchup that is better than it looks on paper. The Yankees have struggled with a collective .295 wOBA and the third-highest K-Rate (27.2%) in the Majors against lefties this year. The Yanks are still without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton among other key bats. Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres have been their hottest hitters but are a combined 3-for-26 with 13 Ks in their careers against Sale. While Sale cooled off in consecutive outings against the elite Astros, he’s certainly back in elite company with a league-best 15.59 K/9 ratio and a stingy .140 BAA during May.
Carlos Carrasco at CWS ($9.5k DraftKings, $10.2k FanDuel)
Carlos Carrasco is also worth a long look in GPP formats even if he’s too risky to use in Cash games. The Indians RHP has struggled over his last two starts but dominated the White Sox in his two previous outings with 12 Ks and 0 ER allowed over 12 IP. Current White Sox are now 36-for-189 (.190) with a 32.2% K-Rate in their careers against Carrasco. He boasts a higher K/9 ratio (11.05) this year but has been undone by a 1.99 HR/9 ratio. Luckily for Carrasco, the White Sox have hit just 29 HRs at home this year and are rocking the second-highest K-Rate (26.8%) when facing RHPs.
Other pitchers to consider: Mike Minor, Charlie Morton, Tyler Skaggs
Michael Chavis at NYY ($5.1k DraftKings, $3.6k FanDuel)
You can also target Steve Pearce for salary relief tonight or form a mini-stack with both RHBs and J.D. Martinez against a homer-prone lefty. J.A. Happ has posted a 2.64 HR/9 ratio against RHBs this year and a 24.3% HR/FB ratio overall at Yankee Stadium. Pearce has hit 6 bombs over 43 career plate appearances against Happ while Chavis has yet to cut his teeth against the 36-year-old southpaw. Chavis does own an absurd 50% HR/FB ratio on the road against lefties and a .406 ISO mark overall against the platoon. He hit 7th last night, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the young sensation much higher in the order in this matchup.
Starling Marte vs. MIL ($4.6k DraftKings, $3.6k FanDuel)
Josh Bell may be one of the hottest hitters on the planet, but Starling Marte profiles as the better play in tonight’s matchup. Brewers RHP Chase Anderson has struggled in RvR matchups with a 52.6% hard contact rate and a troubling 6.59 BB/9 ratio. Marte is 5-for-8 on SB attempts against Anderson, and the Brewers are now more vulnerable against speed threats without defensive maven Jonathan Lucroy behind the plate. Marte is 13-for-27 (.481) with 4 XBH and 2 HR to post a .592 wOBA in his career against Anderson. He’s a good candidate to lead a Pirates stack against a pitcher who’s been often rattled with 6.31 xFIP on the road this year.
Other hitters to consider: Josh Bell, Hunter Pence, Francisco Lindor, J.D. Martinez, Max Muncy, Logan Forsythe, Bryan Reynolds, Asdrubal Cabrera, Avisail Garcia, Roberto Perez, Adam Frazier, Rajai Davis, Jake Bauers
Rangers vs. RHP Jakob Junis (Royals)
Jake Junis is a rather ideal pitcher to stack against because he’s posted below average numbers across the board and is vulnerable against both righties and lefties. He’s yielding a .361 wOBA and a 17.9% HR/FB ratio when facing LHBs this year and owns a 15.6% HR/FB ratio in his career against RHBs. The Rangers are rocking the third-highest HR/FB ratio (19.4%) in home games, and we’re now well into summer in Texas terms, where the ball tends to jump out of the park.
Hunter Pence is the hottest hitter in this lineup with 8 HRs and a 174 wRC+ this month. Logan Forsythe has found a groove atop the lineup, and we should see Shin-Soo Choo start after resting during Wednesday’s matchup. Rougned Odor is quite affordable, and Ronald Guzman could draw the start at 1B with Joey Gallo (wrist) listed as day-to-day. Nomar Mazara is a good floor-ceiling play as well as Asdrubal Cabrera.
Other stacks to consider: Indians vs. Manny Banuelos (White Sox), Pirates vs. Chase Anderson (Brewers)
Three Down for May 30, 2019
Pitcher To Fade
Martin Perez at TB ($9.0k DraftKings, $9.0k FanDuel)
Martin Perez has been lights out lately. His stock has soared since the Twins are leading the Majors in just about every offensive category. Yet Minnesota’s offense could cool down tonight against stingy RHP Charlie Morton. This may seem like a plus matchup for Perez since the Rays are posting the highest K-Rate (30.2%) against lefties. Yet Perez isn’t a strikeout pitcher, and his career-high 22.9% K-Rate is likely to regress. Perez is a ground-ball pitcher with a .311 BABIP in his career, and he’s posting a career-low 1.30 GB/FB rate. The Rays are third in BABIP (.325) and sixth in hard contact rate (42.8%) when playing at home because they know how to use the fast turf at Tropicana Field to their advantage.
Hitter To Fade
Adalberto Mondesi at TEX ($4.9k DraftKings, $3.8k FanDuel)
He might have been worth paying up for in a plus matchup last night, but Adalberto Mondesi is not a great high-priced option against a far superior LHP tonight. Rangers southpaw Mike Minor is rocking a career-best 2.55 ERA, and he’s been stingy over the past three seasons with an 8.4% HR/FB ratio. Mondesi is flashing very limited power with a .149 ISO Mark against LHPs this year. Plus, his 13.5% LD Rate against lefties indicates a low floor in this matchup. Minor is holding RHBs to a .281 wOBA and posting a 17.4% LD Rate with a 2.23 FIP at home.
Stack To Fade
Brewers vs. PIT (RHP Joe Musgrove)
The Brewers have been lights out at home with a league-leading 56 homers. But Joe Musgrove is posting a stingy 3.8% HR/FB ratio this year. He’s holding RHBs to a .228 wOBA and a measly 16.1% LD Rate while posting a 3.29 ERA and .196 BAA over seven road starts. Christian Yelich is obviously a bat to worry about, but Musgrove has struck out the reigning MVP three times over nine career meetings. Musgrove was rolling with a 1.54 ERA in April and is capable of holding his own in a tough matchup on the road.