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MLB DFS Picks

The MLB season is rolling, and there’s a great DFS slate on tap for Wednesday, 5/29/19. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests during the afternoon.

Note that some of these plays are recommended for Cash, and some are best reserved for GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.

Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when planning for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!

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BEST MLB DFS TOURNAMENTS FOR 5/29/19

Wednesday Web Gem: $12 entry, $200k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $20,000 to 1st!
Four Seamer: $4 entry, $50k guaranteed (DraftKings)
Rally: $9.99 entry, $125k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $25,000 to 1st!
Squeeze: $5.55 entry: $75k guaranteed (FanDuel)

Three Up for May 29, 2019

Best Pitchers

Blake Snell vs. TOR ($11.3k DraftKings, $11.8k FanDuel)

After a brief blip in consecutive outings against the Royals, Blake Snell has resumed his domination of the American League. The reigning Cy Young winner owns a 12.84 K/9 ratio and has allowed just 4 ER over his last four outings. He’s sporting a 5.71 K/BB ratio and .186 BAA over five home starts this year after posting a ridiculously low 1.72 ERA at Tropicana Field last season. Toronto has the lowest collective wOBA (.277) in the A.L. and the 10th-highest K-Rate (25.7%) in the Majors when facing lefties. Current Jays are 9-for-62 (.145) with just one XBH and 24 Ks in their careers against Snell.

Walker Buehler vs. NYM ($9.6k DraftKings, $11.0k FanDuel)

Walker Buehler has been rolling over his past few starts and could take off in a juicy matchup tonight. The Mets offense is reeling with Robinson Cano (quad), Jeff McNeil (hamstring), and Brandon Nimmo (neck) out in addition to Yoenis Cespedes (ankle) being ruled out for the season. Thus, the Mets rank 24th in collective average (.234) and 21st in wOBA (.312) over the past 14 days. Overall, the Mets rank 27th in hard contact rate (33.9%) with the third-highest GB Rate (46.7%) against RHPs this season. Buehler owns a 1.50 GB/FB ratio in his career. His Z-Contact Rate (83.3%) is actually lower this year after his breakout 2018 campaign, and his fastball, slider, and cutter all rate well above average per Brooks Baseball.

Other pitchers to consider: Aaron Nola, Kyle Hendricks, Kevin Gausman

Best Hitters

Adalberto Mondesi at CWS ($5.5k DraftKings, $3.8k FanDuel)

White Sox RHP Reynaldo Lopez throws hard and gets hit hard, especially by lefties. He’s yielding a .317 average, .411 wOBA, and 2.45 HR/9 ratio when facing LHBs this year. Adalberto Mondesi is a switch hitter with a .521 slugging percentage and 41.4% hard contact rate against RHPs this season. Lopez yields a 17.2% HR/FB ratio at U.S. Cellular Field, which has a much higher Home Run Factor than Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium.

Trey Mancini vs. DET ($5.0k DraftKings, $3.8k FanDuel)

The Tigers are starting vulnerable LHP Ryan Carpenter tonight, and while the Orioles might not be worth a full stack, they have a few bats capable of blowing up. For one, Renato Nunez owns an impressive 31.8% HR/FB ratio this year and is worth a look in GPP formats. Trey Mancini is the safer Cash option with a .350 average and 173 wRC+ against the platoon on the year. Mancini is sporting a more modest 21.4% HR/FB ratio against lefties but owns a 44.4% LD Rate against LHPs, which is the highest among qualified batters this season. Carpenter’s fastball tops out around 91 MPH and rates well below average, leading to consistently hard contact from RHBs especially.

Other hitters to consider: Nolan Arenado, Ketel Marte, Renato Nunez, Rhys Hoskins, Nick Ahmed, J.T. Realmuto, Trea Turner, Brandon Lowe, David Dahl, Austin Riley, Miguel Cabrera, Starlin Castro, Alex Verdugo

Best Stack

Diamondbacks vs. RHP Jeff Hoffman (Rockies)

The D’Backs’ most expensive batters are lefties or switch hitters. Yet Arizona’s RHBs are affordable and stackable in a plus matchup at Coors Field tonight. Jeff Hoffman has yielded a .307/.392/.533 slash line in RvR matchups over the last three years. He’s coughed up 14 HR and a .304 BAA to post a 7.64 ERA over 23 career appearances at Coors.

Christian Walker will be an underpriced GPP option if he starts, or Kevin Cron could start at 1B and offer upside. Nick Ahmed and Tim Locastro are also an affordable RHBs worth deploying against Hoffman. Adam Jones is fully capable of going deep off Hoffman. The D’Backs could use RHB Carson Kelly or LHB Alex Avila at catcher, and Avila would have more upside. Ketel Marte remains red hot and is worth paying up for along with speed demon Jarrod Dyson.

Other stacks to consider: Braves vs. Anibal Sanchez (Nationals), Orioles vs. Ryan Carpenter (Tigers)

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Three Down for May 29, 2019

Pitcher To Fade

Madison Bumgarner at MIA ($9.9k DraftKings, $9.7k FanDuel)

The Marlins are indeed a weak offensive team, but Madison Bumgarner is still a lackluster GPP option in this matchup. Miami actually owns the fifth-lowest K-Rate (19.8%) against LHPs to go along with a league average 38.6% hard contact rate. Bumgarner is getting more swings and misses this year (24.9%) K-Rate, but he’s also yielding a career-high 26.1% line drive rate. Bumgarner has posted a 6.35 ERA and .333 BAA with 3 HRs allowed over his last two meetings with the Fish. He’s living dangerously with a 48.8% hard contact rate in road starts this year.

Hitter To Fade

Cody Bellinger vs. NYM ($5.9k DraftKings, $4.7k FanDuel)

While Noah Syndergaard has been rocked a few times this season, he’s also flashed the upside of an ace in recent weeks. We could get the lights-out version of “Thor” tonight or at least a serviceable start that limits some of the Dodgers’ most dangerous lefties. Cody Bellinger is hitting a slump of sorts with 6 hits over his last 25 at-bats (.240 average). Anything short of his MVP-level production makes it hard to justify this price tag. Syndergaard owns an excellent 1.72 FIP with 0 BB, 0 HR, and a 14.6% hard contact rate on the road against lefties this year. Bellinger has never faced Syndergaard and might not be able to pick up his slider in the first few meetings.

Stack To Fade

Cubs vs. HOU (LHP Wade Miley)

This stack would be a bit more appealing if Kris Bryant (upper body) is able to return to action tonight. Yet even with Bryant in the fold, the Cubs might have trouble getting to the shifty Wade Miley. The Astros LHP has managed a 2.15 ERA and .183 BAA over five home starts this season, most recently quieting the Red Sox’s red hot bats over six strong innings. The Cubs lineup is boom-bust against lefties with the lowest LD Rate (15.3%) in the Majors against LHPs by far. Javier Baez is certainly capable of going off and could be a stand-alone play, but a few Cubs RHBs (David Bote and Albert Almora Jr.) are actually worse against southpaws. The rest of the Cubs lineup is mostly lefties with decent averages but weak power numbers in LvL matchups.