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MLB DFS picks

The MLB season is rolling, and there’s a great DFS slate on tap for Tuesday, 5/28/19. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests during the afternoon.

Note that some of these plays are recommended for Cash, and some are best reserved for GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel. The featured slate on FanDuel tonight includes all 15 games.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.

Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!

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Extra Inning: $10 entry, $225k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $25,000 to 1st!
Four Seamer: $4 entry, $50k guaranteed (DraftKings)
Rally: $9.99 entry, $100k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $20,000 to 1st!
Squeeze: $7.77 entry: $60k guaranteed (FanDuel)

Three Up for May 28, 2019

Best Pitcher

Frankie Montas vs. LAA ($11.3k DraftKings, $9.2k FanDuel)

Frankie Montas is a locked-in option at his price tag on FanDuel and is worth paying up for in Cash games on DraftKings. The fourth-year RHP has found a groove with a 12% swinging strike rate and 4.69 K/BB ratio this season. He’s sporting a 57.6% ground ball rate at spacious Oakland Coliseum and posted a 64.3% GB rate while limiting the Angels to 1 ER on 3 H in his season debut. The Angels rank 23rd in runs scored (51) over the past 14 days and 24th in hard contact rate (35.1%) when playing on the road this season. Montas is holding RHBs to a weak 16.1% LD Rate and posting a stellar 2.12 FIP against lefties.

Other pitchers to consider: Matt Boyd, Rich Hill, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Bundy, Jeff Samardzija

Best Hitters

Ketel Marte at COL ($5.8k DraftKings, $4.4k FanDuel)

The Diamondbacks should be all over Rockies RHP Antonio Senzatela and the Rockies all over Arizona RHP Merrill Kelly in a game to target tonight. Ketel Marte is one of the safest options to pay up for with the platoon advantage against Senzatela. The switch hitter owns a 46.5% hard contact rate and 16.1% HR/FB ratio against RHPs this year. Senzatela is coughing up a 30% LD Rate and 25% HR/FB ratio against the platoon. Marte caught fire with 3 HR and 7 hits over a three-game series at spacious AT&T Park and has already homered twice in 13 at-bats at Coors Field this season.

David Dahl vs. ARI ($4.2k DraftKings, $3.7k FanDuel)

Sticking with a likely slugfest at Coors, David Dahl is underpriced on DK tonight. He could upgrade in batting position if Charlie Blackmon (calf) misses another game. Dahl is hitting .356 with a .960 OPS at Coors Field this season. Kelly is coughing up a 32.5% LD Rate against lefties, and Dahl is rocking a 32.4% LD Rate against righties. Dahl is 7-for-18 over his last four starts and should see positive regression in terms of producing XBH at hitter-friendly Coors.

Other hitters to consider: Cody Bellinger, Eduardo Escobar, Hunter Pence, J.D. Martinez, Alex Bregman, Francisco Lindor, Ryan McMahon, Carlos Correa, Logan Forsythe, Neil Walker, Wilson Ramos

Best Stack

Cubs vs. RHP Corbin Martin (Astros)

Granted he’s dealing with a tiny sample of MLB appearances, but Corbin Martin has not performed well after his initial debut. The former second-round pick owns a rough 2.13 HR/9 ratio with a 90.7% Z-Contact Rate and 10.5% BB Rate. He gave up a 46.2% hard contact rate in his last outing against a White Sox team that usually ranks dead last with a 31% hard contact rate.

Kris Bryant (upper body) is expected to sit tonight, but Jason Heyward could return from a brief absence and provide some upside at a modest price tag. Anthony Rizzo is clearly the jewel of this stack with 1.059 OPS against RHPs this year, and he could start trouble with his 11.3% BB Rate. Another stud worth paying up for, Javier Baez owns an incredible 36.4% HR/FB ratio in road games this year. The Cubs should offer great values batting in a prime position with Bryant, Ian Happ (finger), and Ben Zobrist (personal) out. Watch where David Bote and Addison Russell wind up in the batting order.

Other stacks to consider: Diamondbacks vs. Antonio Senzatela (Rockies), Rangers vs. Marco Gonzales (Mariners), Phillies vs. Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)


Three Down for May 28, 2019

Pitcher To Fade

Lucas Giolito vs. KC ($9.9k DraftKings, $9.4k FanDuel)

Lucas Giolito proved that strength of schedule wasn’t the only reason he was thriving when he blanked the mighty Astros in a CGSO last Thursday. That performance leads to a significant price bump, and he might not pay it off tonight. The Royals might be struggling with just 50 runs over the last 14 days, but the White Sox are dead last in runs scored (36) during that span. Giolito is getting good results in spite of a 25.2% LD Rate, and he’s struggled with a 2.25 HR/9 ratio and 5.61 FIP at home against lefties. Adalberto Mondesi and Alex Gordon have given him trouble in the past. Hunter Dozier and Whit Merrifield are also red hot RHBs to factor into the matchup.

Hitter To Fade

Mookie Betts vs. CLE ($5.6k DraftKings, $4.1k FanDuel)

The Red Sox are hosting a new RHP in his MLB debut tonight. Yet Zach Plesac is no joke. The 24-year-old is 4-1 with a 1.67 ERA and 9.37 K/9 ratio over nine appearances at the AA and AAA levels this season. He owns an excellent changeup, the pitch that’s plagued Mookie Betts this year. He rated 11.1 runs above average against offspeed stuff during his MVP campaign but owns a -0.3 rating against changeups this year. Betts may be able to meet value by doing damage against the Indians bullpen, but he’s a risky option at a lofty price tag despite the apparently juicy matchup.

Stack To Fade

Twins vs. MIL (RHP Zach Davies)

The Twins have caught fire in recent weeks and are leading the Majors in just about every offensive category over the past month. But Brewers RHP Zach Davies is not likely to get rocked in a second consecutive start. Prior to his blip in an afternoon start against the Reds, Davies was leading the N.L. in ERA. He’s still sporting a 2.43 ERA and has been sharp with a 3.14 FIP on the road. Lefties own a modest 29.5% hard contact rate when facing Davies this year, so he should be able to limit the Twins’ powerful, lefty-heavy lineup.