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mlb dfs

We have a four-game MLB DFS slate on Monday, 5/27/19 beginning at 7:10 p.m EDT. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests. Note that some of these plays are recommended for Cash, and some are best reserved for GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.

Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!

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Three Up for May 27, 2019

Best Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw vs. NYM ($10.2k DraftKings, $10k FanDuel)

Kershaw has quality starts in six of seven trips to the mound and has been at his best at Dodger Stadium. The southpaw has a 3.25 ERA, .230 BAA, and .268 wOBA allowed across 27.2 home frames. He’s done a number on righty bats there, posting a .218 BAA and .259 wOBA versus that handedness. Kershaw has also enjoyed plenty of past success against current Mets hitters. They sport a collective .156/.176/.254 line against him over a combined 122 career at-bats.

New York has struck out at a bloated 30.3 percent clip versus southpaws on the road this season, plus a mediocre .301 wOBA, .127 ISO, and .377 slugging percentage. Furthermore, Kershaw boasts a 2-0 record, 3.46 ERA, 37:3 K:BB and .194 BAA across 26 innings over four starts against the Mets in the last three seasons, and a 20-6 record, 2.13 ERA and .192 BAA at Dodger Stadium overall during that same span.

Given the factors cited above and Kershaw’s overall consistency, I see him as a strong cash or GPP play Monday.

Other pitchers to consider: Sonny Gray (vs. PIT), Lance Lynn (at SEA)

Best Hitter

Ryan Braun at MIN ($4.5k DraftKings, $3k FanDuel)

Braun and Twins starter Michael Pineda have never met in their respective careers. However, the matchup lines up extremely well for the Brewers slugger given both his success against right-handed pitching and Pineda’s struggles with righty bats. Braun boasts a .312 average and .367 wOBA against righties, along with a 30.6 percent line-drive rate and 46.0 percent hard-contact rate versus that handedness on the road.

In turn, Pineda is surrendering a .300 average and .382 wOBA to right-handed batters, with those figures climbing to .308 and .405, respectively, at Target Field. His other dubious metrics against righty bats at home include a 5.18 xFIP, 25.9 percent line-drive rate and 51.9 percent hard-contact rate. There’s also the matter of the Twins bullpen, which has struggled against right-handed hitters at home recently. Minnesota relievers went into Sunday’s action allowing a .289 average and .340 wOBA to righty bats at Target Field during May (78-batter sample).

Other hitters to consider: Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich (all at MIN), C.J. Cron, Miguel Sano, Jonathan Schoop, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton (all vs. MIL), Corey Seager, Chris Taylor, Joc Pederson, Max Muncy (all vs. NYM), Elvis Andrus, Hunter Pence, Logan Forsythe (all at SEA), Jay Bruce, Kyle Seager (vs. TEX)

Best Stack

Twins vs. MIL (LHP Gio Gonzalez) 

Veteran lefty Gio Gonzalez has gotten his Brewers tenure off to an impressive start. However, Gonzalez has always been prone to giving up the long ball to right-handed bats. He runs into a lineup stocked with several of them in the Twins, along with a same-handed bat in Jason Castro who has laced a pair of doubles against him in four career at-bats. Minnesota also checks into Monday’s game sporting a .376 wOBA and modest 17.5 percent strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching at home this season, along with a 24.6 percent line-drive rate and 43.7 percent hard-contact rate.

C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Miguel Sano, the switch-hitting Jorge Polanco, and Byron Buxton comprise my favorite potential Twins stack on Monday. Polanco, Cron, and Buxton boast wOBAs of .343, .443 and .596, respectively, versus southpaws at Target Field this season. It’s also worth noting Gonzalez is allowing a .335 wOBA to right-handed hitters, including .353 on the road. And the Milwaukee bullpen could also make for good targets once Gio exits. Brewers relievers have allowed a 4.75 ERA and .323 wOBA on the road this season, including a 5.21 ERA and .340 wOBA over the last month of play.

Other stacks to consider: Dodgers (vs. NYM), MIL (at MIN)


Three Down for May 27, 2019

Pitcher To Fade

Jacob deGrom at LAD ($9.6k DraftKings, $10.3k FanDuel)   

The Dodgers have a lineup replete with potent left-handed bats, which have been deGrom’s Achilles’ heel. Moreover, deGrom has not been himself this season. He’s allowed six earned runs on two occasions already and five earned runs in another start. He has admittedly been better on the road, but he faces one of the hottest offenses in baseball Monday. The Dodgers have scored at least seven runs in five of their last six games. And their 285 runs scored are tops in the NL and second in all of baseball.

Additionally, deGrom owns a .323 wOBA, 1.42 WHIP, and 39.6 percent hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters. He’s also allowed a bloated 31.6 percent line-drive rate to that handedness on the road. In turn, the Dodgers counter with the likes of Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, and Corey Seager in terms of lefty bats. And four of the eight position players likely to be in the Dodgers lineup Monday boast wOBAs higher than .400 against right-handed pitching at home this season.

Given the matchup and his elevated salaries, I see deGrom as a stay-away candidate Monday.

Hitter To Fade

Domingo Santana vs. TEX ($4.2k DraftKings, $3.8k FanDuel)

Santana has been a solid find for the Mariners this season and has hit right-handers well. However, he’s had significant problems making consistent contact, an issue throughout his career. Plus, things have historically not worked for him against Lance Lynn. Santana has yet to reach safely against Lynn in eight career plate appearances, five of which have culminated in strikeouts. Then, while Santana has an impressive .344 wOBA against righties at home, he also strikes out against them at a 29.7 percent clip there.

Lynn has been a better pitcher on the road than in his hitter-friendly home stadium of Globe Life Park as well. The veteran has a respectable 3.86 ERA, .248 BAA, and .316 wOBA allowed across 37.1 road frames. He also sees a near-six-percent jump in strikeout rate from home (19.3 percent) to road (25.2 percent). And that’s not the only disparity in his home/road splits that points in his favor and against Santana’s candidacy Monday. Lynn allows almost 14 percent less hard contact when traveling (36.9 percent, compared to 50.6 percent at home).

Stack To Fade

Pirates at CIN (RHP Sonny Gray)   

Reds starter Sonny Gray sports an ugly 1-4 record, but that mark belies several other solid metrics. The veteran right-hander’s 3.78 ERA, 3.78 SIERA, and 1.22 WHIP are serviceable. So are his 3.12 FIP and 74.6 percent contact percentage allowed, the latter the second-lowest figure of his career. While Gray does have a higher ERA at home, he’s allowed an impressive .299 wOBA and 3.74 xFIP there across 22 frames. And current Pirates hitters own an uninspiring .227/.306/.347 line against him across 75 career at-bats.

Gray has given up more than three earned runs only once in 10 starts. Additionally, he’s racked up at least seven strikeouts in half of those outings. Then, the Pirates have a middling .303 wOBA against right-handed pitching on the road this season. They also put up a mediocre .138 ISO versus righties outside of PNC Park over the last month of play. Considering Gray’s strong track record against their hitters and his ability to stay away from blowups this season, I don’t see the Pirates’ bats as particularly stackable Monday.

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