We have a 14-game MLB DFS slate on Friday, 5/24/19 beginning at 7:05 p.m EDT. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests. Note that some of these plays are recommended for Cash, and some are best reserved for GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.
Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!
BEST MLB DFS TOURNAMENTS FOR 5/24
Mini Spring Series Finale: $10 entry, $200k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $20k to 1st!
Medium 6’s: $66 entry, $250k guaranteed (DraftKings)- $50K to 1st!
Fri. Rally: $9.99 entry, $125k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $25K to 1st!
Fri. Grand Slam: $55 entry, $125K guaranteed (FanDuel)- $25K to 1st!
Three Up for May 24, 2019
Jose Berrios vs. CWS ($10.2k DraftKings, $9.9k FanDuel)
Berrios’ price has come down some over his last two starts: a couple of rough outings. He’s back home Friday in pitcher-friendly Target Field and faces a White Sox squad that’s struck out a very high clip against right-handed pitching. Plus, they’ve struggled versus Berrios in particular. Chicago sports a 28.5 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching on the road over the last month. That’s along with a middling .299 wOBA and -5.4 wRAA. Current ChiSox bats sport a collective .197 average and .248 on-base percentage versus the Twins starter as well across 117 combined career at-bats. That’s a sample that includes 34 strikeouts.
Berrios’ impressive home metrics include a 3.00 ERA, .284 wOBA, and 24.4 percent strikeout rate. He owns a 7-1 record, 2.12 ERA, .183 BAA, and 67 strikeouts against the White Sox over 59.1 frames across eight starts over the last three seasons. And Target Field has actually suppressed offense this season to a significant degree. Minnesota’s home digs check into Friday with the third-lowest run factor (0.725), seventh-lowest home-run factor (0.729), and fourth-lowest hit factor (0.874) in the Majors.
Finally, Minnesota’s powerful bats should give Berrios a solid chance at a win if he pitches as well as expected, furthering his already strong case.
Other pitchers to consider: Blake Snell (at CLE), Chris Sale (at HOU), Robbie Ray (at SFG), Noah Syndergaard (vs. DET), Joey Lucchesi (at TOR)
Mookie Betts at HOU ($5.2k DraftKings, $4.5k FanDuel)
Betts is starting to heat up after a rough start to the season. He boasts a .289 average and .366 wOBA over the last two weeks of play (54 plate appearances). Friday, he faces a pitcher against whom he’s had plenty of success: Wade Miley. The outfielder has uncharacteristically struggled against left-handed pitching this season. But he boasts a career .305 average and .380 wOBA versus that handedness. What’s more, he owns a .546 average, three doubles, and a home run against Miley over 13 career plate appearances and has never struck out against the veteran southpaw.
Then, Miley has allowed six of his eight homers this season to right-handed hitters and owns a mediocre 14.2 percent strikeout rate against that handedness. He’s been largely bailed out by a .238 BABIP against righty bats at Minute Maid Park, considering he’s also yielded a 47.7 percent hard-contact rate to that handedness there. Meanwhile, Betts is striking out at only a 13.5 percent clip against lefties but has been stung by an outlier .174 BABIP against them on the road.
Other hitters to consider: Enrique Hernandez, Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Max Muncy, David Freese (all at PIT); James McCann (at MIN); Yasmani Grandal, Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun (all vs. PHI); Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera, Jean Segura (at MIL); Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit, Aaron Hicks (all at KCR); Paul DeJong, Yadier Molina, Kolten Wong (all vs. ATL)
Dodgers at PIT (RHP Montana DuRapau, opener/ LHP Steven Brault, long reliever)
The Dodgers have hit southpaws very well on the road all season despite having a lineup full of left-handed hitters. Friday, they should see plenty of left-hander Steven Brault as a long reliever after opener Montana DuRapau exits the game. Brault has significant control problems (5.9 BB/9) and also struggles to keep the ball in the park (2.3 HR/9). Meanwhile, the Dodgers come into Friday’s action with an NL-high .343 wOBA, a .205 ISO and 8.7 wRAA versus lefties outside of Dodger Stadium.
Brault is getting walloped by all hitters and is allowing a 7.04 ERA, .390 wOBA, and 5.87 BB/9 at PNC Park. He also sports a middling 10.4 percent swinging strike rate and 8.6 percent Barrel/Batted Ball Event, numbers that a powerful Dodgers lineup, which has five of eight position players with wOBAs of .322 or higher versus lefties on the road, can exploit. Of those, the quartet of Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, and Enrique Hernandez particularly stand out. Then, Corey Seager and David Freese are solid secondary options if in the lineup.
Finally, it’s worth considering that the Pirates’ bullpen could make for good targets as well. Pittsburgh relievers have worked the fifth-most innings (28.1) over the last week of play while allowing a .356 wOBA over that span (124-batter sample). And with Los Angeles so heavy on left-handed bats, note that the Pirates’ pen has given up an MLB-high .412 wOBA, along with a .315 average and also MLB-high .424 OBP, to left-handed hitters at PNC Park this season.
Other stacks to consider: Yankees (at KCR), Cardinals (vs. ATL), Phillies (at MIL), Athletics (vs. SEA)
Three Down for May 24, 2019
Pitcher To Fade
Wade LeBlanc at OAK ($7.4k DraftKings, $5.8k FanDuel)
LeBlanc was eviscerated by the Twins in his last start, allowing seven earned runs, including four home runs, over 2.1 innings. It was the veteran lefty’s first start after a disabled list stint, so perhaps there was rust involved. While LeBlanc should be better Friday, he still draws a tough matchup versus an Athletics squad that’s hit lefties very well at home this season. Oakland sports a .345 wOBA, .255 ISO, and 42.5 percent hard-contact rate against southpaws at the Coliseum. They also boast a modest 16.9 percent strikeout rate there versus that handedness.
LeBlanc is allowing no shortage of hard contact. That could certainly spell trouble versus a lineup with some potent bats, even if Khris Davis (hip) isn’t available. LeBlanc is allowing just under half his pitches (49.3 percent) to be hit with an exit velocity of 95 mph per hour or higher. He also has a mediocre 67.7 percent strand rate and 8.4 percent swinging strike rate. His road numbers look much better than his home figures, but that’s because LeBlanc has just a single start outside of T-Mobile Park this season. Given his low strikeout potential and the fact he’s gone 5.1 innings or fewer in three of four starts, avoid LeBlanc on Friday.
Hitter To Fade
Francisco Lindor vs. TB ($4.7k DraftKings, $3.5k FanDuel)
Lindor has undeniably been impressive after starting late this season. However, he’s struggled against left-handed pitching and runs into one of the best southpaws in the game Friday in the form of Blake Snell. Lindor has struggled against the star lefty in past encounters — .083 (1-for-12). Lindor is also hitting just .212 and has a .279 wOBA versus left-handed arms across 37 plate appearances.
In turn, Snell is holding right-handed hitters to a .205 average, .257 wOBA, and 2.38 xFIP, along with an anemic 24.4 percent hard-contact rate on the road. What’s more, the 41.9 percent groundball rate he’s induced from righty bats dovetails nicely with the elevated 46.2 percent figure Lindor carries in that same category against lefties. Snell boasts an elite 19.3 percent swinging strike rate as well and an average exit velocity of 87.7 mph, also a very impressive figure. Given the number of factors against him Friday and his elevated salaries, I see Lindor as a fade candidate.
Stack To Fade
Tigers at NYM (RHP Noah Syndergaard)
Mets starter Noah Syndergaard has looked much more like his usual self in recent starts. The right-hander has quality starts in two straight and in three of his last four. Granted, Syndergaard has seen relatively soft competition during those outings: the Reds, the Nationals, and the Marlins. However, tonight’s Tigers are far from a powerhouse. The Tigers are striking out at a 27.4 percent clip against right-handed pitching on the road over the last month while posting a middling .307 wOBA during that stretch. On the season, Detroit checks in with a .274 wOBA, -22.6 wRAA, and 28.9 percent strikeout rate against righties outside of their home stadium, along with a co-AL-low 15 homers.
Meanwhile, Syndergaard comes into Friday’s action with a .211 BAA and .257 wOBA allowed across 27.0 home innings. He’s limiting both handednesses to sub-.300 wOBAs at Citi Field as well, and he’s been particularly tough on righty bats. Syndergaard boasts a .192 BAA and .227 wOBA versus right-handed hitters at home, and the Tigers essentially play “right” into his hands. They sport a projected lineup replete with that handedness: seven of nine players. And while Citi Field does rank around the middle of the league in run factor (1.026), it sports bottom-10 rankings in hit factor (0.916) and triples factor (0.800) while tying for last in doubles factor (0.776).