With Snowmaggedon behind us it’s time to get back to business with a really interesting 11 game slate. Only three games tonight have Totals over 201. The top one is the Wizards/Suns at 211 with a 6 point spread. The other two are Portland/Cleveland at 207 and Dallas/Houston at the same number. The Dallas spread is 4 and cleveland is 6.5 at the moment. Those seem to be the top 3 to target. Brooklyn/Atlanta, OKC/NY, and Charlotte/San Antonio all have double digit spreads so those are the ones with blowout concerns, and Detroit/Philly has a decent size spread and very low total so I would be cautious of that one as well. The Minnesota/Boston game could be a sneaky source of some well priced value options tonight as well, so you can look there too.
We had a pretty good day on Friday thanks to my main man Klay Mother F#$%ing Thompson and his third quarter heroics. Not as good as some of our followers who took down a whole bunch of tourney’s off the backs of our value plays. One user Gregory Mills has the best combination of them that night and took down a few nice scores as seen below.
— Gregory mills (@notguiltyhbg) January 24, 2015
We rolled out two rosters that all doubled up and cashed in GPPs on FD, Here and Here and missed out on the trip to Cali, but doubled up off of Klay’s back on Aces as well. There’s a ton of big money on Draft Kings tonight and the bulk of our bankroll in play today will be over there in the $500K Slam Dunk, so let’s hope to keep the cashes and the Cash rolling in. Here’s what the sheets are pointing out today.
At the high end the one guy who is sticking out is John Wall. He flirted with a triple double last night coming up one rebound short after almost not playing in the game. He gets another fast paced match up tonight and should be able to put up a good stat line. His price is a tick below some of the other high end PGs and I guess it has to do with his team’s preferred pace, but in a paced up game like tonight I think he is a very viable option. In fact in a very rare case he is showing up as the best value across all three sites despite being one of the most expensive options and that is usually a very good sign of things to come. He is in play all over and my top option tonight.
Moving down to the mid tier range there are two guys I really like and let me lay out the case for one over the other. The two guys the numbers are showing up for are DJ Augustin and Isaiah Thomas. Now DJ is the flavor of the week and rightfully so with what he has done since getting the starting PG job. They have a match up tonight with the lowly Sixers squad, a 192 O/U, Blowout possibilities and are on the tail end of back to back games. If ever there was a recipe for a game where the starters might get some much needed extra rest this could be it. Throw in the fact his price is up across the board (Except for Aces) and you do not exactly have the perfect storm of outperformance laid out. Could he still reach value? Of course, he is still cheap and his usage is insanely high for his price. He has looked better then OK and there’s no need to think he will regress much. It’s just that his ownership will be enormous, the total on that game is low, and he is less of a bargain today.
Now if you wanted a guy priced near him to swerve onto that others will not the man is IT2. Thomas is the back up PG in Phoenix but when he is in the game he just attacks and attacks. We were all up in arms because if Wall sat they have no true back up PG, but if that’s the case we should be salivating at the prospects of Andre Miller in a wheelchair trying to guard IT2. Go pull up his game log on whatever site you play and take a look at his fantasy numbers recently. On FD he has gone 6 times value twice followed by two games at 5 times value. On DK he has gone 8 times, 7 times, 6 times, 5.5 times in his last 4, and on aces he has been 6-8 times all last week. He’s putting up over 20 real life points per game and adding a few steals and assists to those numbers. If Augustin underperforms even a little on FD and you outscore him with IT2 then you have a few hundred extra to spend elsewhere and a lead on the probable chalk play. On DK it’s about a $400 difference and the same principle applies. DJ is still probably the way to go in cash, but for a GPP you can do worse then IT2 or as a swerve. In fact both might even be a good route to go in cash with safe floors based off recent performance. The cherry on top with IT2 for me is his game has an expected total almost 20 points higher than Augustin and should remain closer. He gets under 30 minutes either way so the spread matters less to me than the total which is squarely in his favor. I Give IT2 the edge on DK especially at a lower price and probably much lower ownership. On FD it’s close I can and will go either way and maybe even use both. On Aces I have a harder time taking IT2 over DJ with DJ being $100 cheaper so I will get my exposure to him there.
There’s also a few cheap options today. With Mo Williams out you got Zac Lavine. Min Price on DK, but not someone I really love. Langston Galloway is interesting, but his price has jumped all over. I don’t really know if he has a 40 burger in him yet and it’s creeping up to the point where he will need that to get there. Brian Roberts is another option as he takes the PG duties for the Hornets in Kemba’s absence. Again though he has no real ceiling so I would prefer him in cash for the time being. All these guys are options if you need to save, but I like the first three mentioned for upside and top performances on a raw score and Average point per dollar basis.
This worked out pretty well today as I have a guy in every price range I like. If you can afford to spend up, The Hou/Dal game should be a high scoring one. James Harden may not be the best option on average cost scale, but he should be the top point scorer at the position. If you can afford to find a way to pay up for him then go and do it. He should be worth it if you can find the right value to pair with him.
Eric Bledsoe is a step down in price and my favorite higher end play today to try and fit in. I like the discount off of Harden and in the highest O/U game and with his recent track record he is my top guy. I think the Suns will be able to push the pace there and his all around contributions are always nice to have on your rosters. I love him on Aces and really like him on FD and DK. On Aces though he is almost a must play for me today.
Sliding down a bit in price I really like Wes Matthews as well. Second highest O/U game and he has been taking more shots and doing more of the little things with Batum out. He has been consistently putting up 30-35 points on DK over his last few games and that is great value for a cash game tonight. He’s about $6K on FD and DK and a bargain price on Aces as well, so he is usable all over.
Dropping down again the man I am targeting is Avery Bradley. He has a lot of positives going for him. For starters he is playing more minutes. He is shooting better from behind the arc (DK boost). Evan Turner is out so he should see more usage and more time at PG. Add in the higher total and the chance for steals as he should be guarding Zac Lavine and this could be a big game for him. The best part is he is insanely cheap so he does not need to do much to make value and with all the positives he has it could be the game he smashes through his ceiling. There’s some risk as well, but you have a pretty solid floor on a low cost option that has upside and those are the kind of guys who you can plug and play in cash or GPP rosters.
***Editors Note: The above was written with the assumption that Evan Turner was out tonight. He is now likely to play so Bradley will have a bump down in Usage***
There’s three guys popping up on the sheets and I was very happy to see they were the three I was using in my saver line ups for the Slam Dunk anyway. Again here there’s a nice range of options as price is concerned so let’s run through them.
The expensive guy is Andrew Wiggins. Expensive is a relative term as he is really only $7K on FD and DK and under $5K on Aces. He projects for very good value at that price and while I like him, I don’t love him today. He is cheap enough to have a nice floor for you and that game is projected to see a lot of points, but the way to get at the Celtics is usually through the big guys, so he may see a few less shots today. He also might get some Avery Bradley defense at times and Bradley is a very solid defender. My main hold up is his rising price, but I still think he scores more than the two options I will mention after him so he is worth paying up for if you can.
***Editors Note: The above was written with the assumption that Kevin Martin was out tonight. He is now likely to play so Wiggins will have a bump down in Usage***
The Next guy I really like is Wilson Chandler. The Nuggets have looked bad lately but Chandler is playing really well. He has reached value on all three sites over the last few games and his price is a little depressed still compared to his production. I do not want to pay up at the position today and he is as safe and has as much upside at the price as anybody at the position today.
The lower end option of course comes with the most risk, but if MCW is out again I like KJ McDaniels. He has put up 30+ fantasy points a few times recently and his price is very cheap on FD and DK especially. I’m not in love with his upside enough to use him on Aces, but for a cost saver on the other two I think he is fine tonight. He has more risk then Chandler or Wiggins so more a GPP thing for me, but he is not a horrible play today by any stretch.
Again here I think Anthony Davis is the top scoring PF today and has a nice match up. If you can afford him then do it. He might not return 6 times salary on FD or DK, but he has a safe floor and the chance to explode. Him and Harden are 1a and 1b as far as superstars go today and I think you need some exposure to one and or both if you roll multiple GPP line ups in some of these tourneys.
For Cash games though I will be using two mid tier and two lower tier options almost exclusively. The two mid tier options are Thad Young and Jared Sullinger. They are both listed as PF but will rarely guard each other as Thad has played more of three man roll lately and Sully even plays a little center at times. Both have become bigger parts of their teams offenses recently and both are still good for 7-10 rebounds a game. At the price they are both offered at you can definitely do worse then taking either of them. The Total in that game is pretty high and I think both have safe floors and have gone near the ceilings in recent starts.
Staying with that same Game I think Brandon Bass is still interesting. His price is low and his minutes are remaining high so he has a chance to do some good things again today. He is more a cash game salary saver to me as his upside is rarely reached, but he can get you a safe 20-25 points most nights and at a $4K price tag you have to be happy with it. FD is my favorite spot to roll him out and will probably be where I use him.
An even cheaper option who has been hot lately is Patrick Patterson. Pat Pat has reached value twice in a row due to a few extra minutes and a low price. I think we could see Valaciunas get in some foul trouble and may require some Amir Johnson and Pat Pat together tonight which would only help his minutes. His per minute averages are really solid and a few extra minutes at his low price may be all it takes to exceed value. Again here both of the low end guys carry more risk, so GPP seems the best place to take the chance on them.
I recommended paying up for SG and PF today despite the APP, but I will not do so at Center. If you want Cousins, then go ahead and have him. If he goes off tonight I will shake your hand and say congrats but he will not be on my rosters. Gay was ejected early last game and Cousins did not have a monster performance. In fact at his price he has failed to make value for awhile now. That game is going to have a lower total score and his price is too high. I don’t think he is as safe or has the upside that Brow and Beard do today so i you want to pay up I would look at those two first. Plus I love a bunch of sneaky Center options today so I will be saving with them instead.
My favorite play across the board tonight is Gorgui Dieng. Many are scared off with Pekovic back so his ownership is lower then it should be. His price has come down on Aces and FD a tad and even the stubbornly high price on DK is not horrible. The way to beat the Celtics is through the inside and Dieng is seeing minutes at both the four and the five with Thad sliding to the three so despite what many think he has a safe minutes profile. Plus he will be guarding a much smaller Brandon Bass at Center for times and Bass being shorter makes him a candidate for a few extra block shots tonight. The Celtics give up big rebounding games to big guys often, so increased blocks and boards with a few more put back points would pay off his square price pretty nicely. Again here this game has a really nice total to it and will be one of the few I target today.
Some of the other plays are a little less obvious but I wanted to point some out. Andre Drummond gets a very weak Sixers frontcourt and they give it up to bigs pretty regularly. The Blowout is a concern, but if this game stays close he could have a monster 20/20 kind of night.
On DK and only on DK Al Jefferson is in play. He is $6700 and started the second half the other night. He is getting back in shape and the minutes and usage are starting to come his way again. When he is in the line up the whole pace of the Charlotte offense slows because they tend to feed him and play off of that. Without Kemba they will need to do this even more so he could produce a really high score tonight at a very reasonable discounted price for him. It’s risky but the biggest reward comes from hopping on the bandwagon before it gets crowded and on DK he might be cheap enough to take that chance in a GPP and see him lead you to a score.
Marcin Gortat, Chris Kaman, Timofey Mozgov, and Tyler Zeller are interesting value options towards the lower end today. I like the guys I mentioned more so I will be paying up, but any of those guys can return value for you as well and allow you the room to pay up for a stud or two. See who is priced best on the site you are playing by using our sheets and roll them out there for salary relief. Just remember the upside is limited on those guys so they could come back to haunt you as well.